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Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and conservation scenarios. Results show increased wind velocities could substantially increase the overall deterioration risk, implying the need for wind-reducing conservation strategies. In contrast, predicted increases in rainfall are not likely to increase the overall deterioration risk, despite greater risk of rain-driven deterioration features. Of the four conservation strategies tested in our model, deterioration risk under all climatic scenarios was best reduced by increasing the coverage of natural, randomly-distributed vegetation to 80%. We suggest this approach could be an appropriate long-term conservation strategy for other earthen sites in dryland regions.

SUBMITTER: Richards J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7532530 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty.

Richards Jenny J Bailey Richard R Mayaud Jerome J Viles Heather H Guo Qinglin Q Wang Xudong X

Scientific reports 20201002 1

Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and co ...[more]

PMID: 33009440

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Earthen sites are immobile cultural relics and an important part of cultural heritage with historical, artistic and scientific values. The deterioration of features in earthen sites result in permanent loss of cultural information, causing immeasurable damage to the study of history and culture. Most research on the deterioration of earthen sites has concentrated on physicochemical factors, and information on microbial communities in earthen sites and their relationship with the earthen site deterioration is scarce. We used high-throughput sequencing to analyze bacterial and fungal communities in soils from earthen walls with different degree of deterioration at Jinsha earthen site to characterize the microbial communities and their correlation with environmental factors, and to compare microbial community structures and the relative abundances of individual taxa associated with different degree of deterioration for identifying possible marker taxa. RESULTS:The relative abundances of Proteobacteria and Firmicutes were higher and that of Actinobacteria lower with higher degree of deterioration. At the genus level, the relative abundances of Rubrobacter were highest in all sample groups except in the most deteriorated samples where that of Bacteroides was highest. The relative abundance of the yeast genus Candida was highest in the severely deteriorated sample group. The bacterial phylum Bacteroidetes and genus Bacteroides, and fungal class Saccharomycetes that includes Candida sp. were specific for the most deteriorated samples. For both bacteria and fungi, the differences in community composition were associated with differences in EC, moisture, pH, and the concentrations of NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ and SO42-. CONCLUSION:The microbial communities in soil with different degree of deterioration were distinctly different, and deterioration was accompanied with bigger changes in the bacterial than in the fungal community. In addition, the deteriorated soil contained higher concentrations of soluble salts. Potentially, the accumulation of Bacteroides and Candida plays an important role in the deterioration of earthen features. Further work is needed to conclude whether controlling the growth of the bacteria and fungi with high relative abundances in the deteriorated samples can be applied to alleviate deterioration.

Project description:Increasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves' anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species' spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km2 square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia.

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Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty.

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Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty.

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