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Complex Systems Model of Dynamic Mechanisms of Early Childhood Caries Development.

ABSTRACT: Early childhood caries (ECC) is a largely preventable condition that occurs when children develop caries in their primary teeth before the age of six. National trends of ECC indicate that prevalence is decreasing, but disparities between various sociodemographic groups may be increasing, despite intervention efforts. Dynamic mechanisms in caries development are hypothesized to be responsible for the observed population distributions of disease. Agent-based models (ABMs) have been utilized to explore similar hypotheses in many areas of health research. Therefore, we developed an ABM of ECC development mechanisms and examined population outcomes of hypothetical preventive intervention scenarios. We found that risk-based targeting had minimal impact on population averages or disparities and was largely due to the strength of the dynamic mechanisms among those considered to be at high caries risk. Universally increasing intervention access reduced population caries prevalence, but increased disparities between different groups of caries risk profiles. We show that population distributions of ECC can emerge as a result of dynamic mechanisms that have been shown to drive disease development. Understanding the effectiveness of a proposed intervention in relation to the hypothesized mechanism(s) that contributes to the outcome of interest is critical to future efforts to address population disparities in ECC.

SUBMITTER: Heaton B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7174800 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Dental caries is characterized by a dysbiotic shift at the biofilm-tooth surface interface, yet comprehensive biochemical characterizations of the biofilm are scant. We used metabolomics to identify biochemical features of the supragingival biofilm associated with early childhood caries (ECC) prevalence and severity. The study's analytical sample comprised 289 children ages 3 to 5 (51% with ECC) who attended public preschools in North Carolina and were enrolled in a community-based cross-sectional study of early childhood oral health. Clinical examinations were conducted by calibrated examiners in community locations using International Caries Detection and Classification System (ICDAS) criteria. Supragingival plaque collected from the facial/buccal surfaces of all primary teeth in the upper-left quadrant was analyzed using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Associations between individual metabolites and 18 clinical traits (based on different ECC definitions and sets of tooth surfaces) were quantified using Brownian distance correlations (dCor) and linear regression modeling of log2-transformed values, applying a false discovery rate multiple testing correction. A tree-based pipeline optimization tool (TPOT)-machine learning process was used to identify the best-fitting ECC classification metabolite model. There were 503 named metabolites identified, including microbial, host, and exogenous biochemicals. Most significant ECC-metabolite associations were positive (i.e., upregulations/enrichments). The localized ECC case definition (ICDAS ≥1 caries experience within the surfaces from which plaque was collected) had the strongest correlation with the metabolome (dCor P = 8 × 10-3). Sixteen metabolites were significantly associated with ECC after multiple testing correction, including fucose (P = 3.0 × 10-6) and N-acetylneuraminate (p = 6.8 × 10-6) with higher ECC prevalence, as well as catechin (P = 4.7 × 10-6) and epicatechin (P = 2.9 × 10-6) with lower. Catechin, epicatechin, imidazole propionate, fucose, 9,10-DiHOME, and N-acetylneuraminate were among the top 15 metabolites in terms of ECC classification importance in the automated TPOT model. These supragingival biofilm metabolite findings provide novel insights in ECC biology and can serve as the basis for the development of measures of disease activity or risk assessment.

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Complex Systems Model of Dynamic Mechanisms of Early Childhood Caries Development.

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