Dataset Information

Covid-19: A Dynamic Analysis of Fatality Risk in Italy.

ABSTRACT: Italy was the second country in the world to face a wide epidemic of Covid-19 after China. The ratio of the number of fatalities to the number of cases (case fatality ratio, CFR) recorded in Italy was surprisingly high and increased in the month of March. The older mean age of population, the changes in testing policy, and the methodological computation of CFR were previously reported as possible explanations for the incremental trend of CFR, a parameter theoretically expected to be constant. In this brief report, the official data provided by the Italian Ministry of Health were analyzed using fitting models and the linear fit method approach. This last methodology allowed us to reach two findings. The trend of the number of deaths followed a 1-3-day delay of positive cases. This delay was not compatible with a biological course of Covid-19 but was compatible with a health management explanation. The second finding is that the Italian number of deaths did not increase linearly with the number of positive cases, but their relationship could be modeled by a second-order polynomial function. The high number of positive cases might have a direct and an indirect effect on the number of deaths, the latter being related to the overwhelmed bed capacity of intensive care units.

SUBMITTER: Iosa M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7203466 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Covid-19: A Dynamic Analysis of Fatality Risk in Italy.

Iosa Marco M Paolucci Stefano S Morone Giovanni G

Frontiers in medicine 20200430

Italy was the second country in the world to face a wide epidemic of Covid-19 after China. The ratio of the number of fatalities to the number of cases (case fatality ratio, CFR) recorded in Italy was surprisingly high and increased in the month of March. The older mean age of population, the changes in testing policy, and the methodological computation of CFR were previously reported as possible explanations for the incremental trend of CFR, a parameter theoretically expected to be constant. In ...[more]

PMID: 32426362

Similar Datasets

Project description:When the population risk factors and reporting systems are similar, the assessment of the case-fatality (or lethality) rate (ratio of cases to deaths) represents a perfect tool for analyzing, understanding and improving the overall efficiency of the health system. The objective of this article is to estimate the influence of the hospital care system on lethality in metropolitan France during the inception of the COVID-19 epidemic, by analyzing the spatial variability of the hospital case-fatality rate (CFR) between French districts. In theory, the hospital age-standardized CFR should not display significant differences between districts, since hospital lethality depends on the virulence of the pathogen (the SARS-CoV-2 virus), the vulnerability of the population (mainly age-related), the healthcare system quality, and cases and deaths definition and the recording accuracy. We analyzed hospital data on COVID-19 hospitalizations, severity (admission to intensive care units for reanimation or endotracheal intubation) and mortality, from March 19 to May 8 corresponding to the first French lockdown. All rates were age-standardized to eliminate differences in districts age structure. The results show that the higher case-fatality rates observed by districts are mostly related to the level of morbidity. Time analysis shows that the case-fatality rate has decreased over time, globally and in almost all districts, showing an improvement in the management of severe patients during the epidemic. In conclusion, it appears that during the first critical phase of COVID-19 ramping epidemic in metropolitan France, the higher case-fatality rates were generally related to the higher level of hospitalization, then potentially related to the overload of healthcare system. Also, low hospitalization with high case-fatality rates were mostly found in districts with low population density, and could due to some limitation of the local healthcare access. However, the magnitude of this increase of case-fatality rate represents less than 10 per cent of the average case-fatality rate, and this variation is small compared to much greater variation across countries reported in the literature.

Project description:ImportanceWhile the characteristics of COVID-19 infection and mortality among patients with a malignant neoplasm have previously been examined, little data are available for gender-specific COVID-19 mortality.ObjectiveTo examine the gender-specific COVID-19 case fatality risks among patients with a malignant neoplasm.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's National Inpatient Sample, patients admitted to the hospital from April to December 2020 with a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were identified by the World Health Organization's International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code U07.1. Data analysis was performed from November 2022 to January 2023.ExposureDiagnosis of malignant neoplasm, identified and classified according to the National Cancer Institute's definition.Main outcome and measureCOVID-19 in-hospital case fatality rate, defined as the number of deaths that occurred during index hospital admissions.ResultsThere were 1 622 755 patients who were admitted to the hospital from April 1 to December 31, 2020, with a diagnosis of COVID-19. The cohort-level COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality rate was 12.9% with a median time to death of 5 days (IQR, 2-11 days). Frequently reported morbidities among the patients with COVID-19 included pneumonia (74.3%), respiratory failure (52.9%), cardiac arrythmia or cardiac arrest (29.3%), acute kidney injury (28.0%), sepsis (24.6%), shock (8.6%), cerebrovascular accident (5.2%), and venous thromboembolism or pulmonary embolism (5.0%). In a multivariable analysis, gender (male vs female, 14.5% vs 11.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.27-1.30) and malignant neoplasm (17.9% vs 12.7%; aOR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.27-1.32) were both associated with increased COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risk at the cohort level. Among the group of female patients, there were 5 malignant neoplasms in which the COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risk was greater than 2-fold higher. These included anal cancer (23.8%; aOR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.84-4.69), Hodgkin lymphoma (19.5%; aOR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.90-4.08), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (22.4%; aOR, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.02-2.47), lung cancer (24.3%; aOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 2.03-2.39), and ovarian cancer (19.4%; aOR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.79-2.59). Among the group of male patients, Kaposi sarcoma (33.3%; aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.18-3.66) and malignant neoplasm in the small intestine (28.6%; aOR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.18-3.53) had a greater than 2-fold increased COVID-19 in-hospital case mortality risk.Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this cohort study confirmed the substantial case fatality rate among patients with COVID-19 in the early pandemic experience in 2020 in the US. While COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risks were lower among women compared with men, the associations of a concurrent malignant neoplasm with the COVID-19 case fatality were overall more substantial for women than for men.

Dataset Information

Covid-19: A Dynamic Analysis of Fatality Risk in Italy.

Publications

Covid-19: A Dynamic Analysis of Fatality Risk in Italy.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets