Dataset Information

Tobacco Free Ireland 2025: SimSmoke prediction for the end game.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:This study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It then assesses the potential of further strong policies, relative to a scenario of inaction, to see if Tobacco Free Ireland 2025 is feasible. METHODS:SimSmoke, the dynamic simulation model of tobacco control policy, was adapted to examine the impact of Irish tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence, through initiation and cessation, and smoking-attributable deaths and to make predictions for the future. RESULTS:Between 1998 and 2016, the model prediction of smoking prevalence is reasonably close to those from several surveys. As a result of policies implemented in this period, the smoking rate was reduced by 42% from 32.2% in 1998 to 18.7% in 2016. If tobacco control policies remain unchanged from their 2016 levels, smoking prevalence is projected to be 15.8% in 2025. With the introduction of stricter MPOWER-compliant policies in 2017, the smoking prevalence could be reduced to 12.4% in 2025. CONCLUSIONS:Predictions from the SimSmoke Ireland model confirm that the policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 have had a considerable effect. In addition, implementing policies fully compliant with MPOWER could further reduce the smoking prevalence afterwards. However, even under the stricter MPOWER-compliant policies, there is still a gap between the predicted rate in 2025 and the Tobacco Free Ireland target of 5%. Therefore, new policies going beyond MPOWER are needed.

SUBMITTER: Li S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7205082 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tobacco Free Ireland 2025: SimSmoke prediction for the end game.

Li Shasha S Levy David D Clancy Luke L

Tobacco prevention & cessation 20180605

<h4>Introduction</h4>This study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It then assesses the potential of further strong policies, relative to a scenario of inaction, to see if Tobacco Free Ireland 2025 is feasible.<h4>Methods</h4>SimSmoke, the dynamic simulation model of tobacco control policy, was adapted to examine the impact of Irish tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence, through initiatio ...[more]

PMID: 32411849

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Project description:ObjectiveTo use a computer simulation model to project the potential impact in China of tobacco control measures on smoking, as recommended by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), being fully implemented.DesignModelling study.SettingChina.PopulationMales and females aged 15-74 years.InterventionIncremental impact of more complete implementation of WHO FCTC policies simulated using SimSmoke, a Markov computer simulation model of tobacco smoking prevalence, smoking attributable deaths, and the impact of tobacco control policies. Data on China's adult population, current and former smoking prevalence, initiation and cessation rates, and past policy levels were entered into SimSmoke in order to predict past smoking rates and to project future status quo rates. The model was validated by comparing predicted smoking prevalence with smoking prevalence measured in tobacco surveys from 1996-2010.Main outcome measuresProjected future smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths from 2013-50.ResultsStatus quo tobacco policy simulations projected a decline in smoking prevalence from 51.3% in 2015 to 46.5% by 2050 in males and from 2.1% to 1.3% in females. Of the individual FCTC recommended tobacco control policies, increasing the tobacco excise tax to 75% of the retail price was projected to be the most effective, incrementally reducing current smoking compared with the status quo by 12.9% by 2050. Complete and simultaneous implementation of all FCTC policies was projected to incrementally reduce smoking by about 40% relative to the 2050 status quo levels and to prevent approximately 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and 154 million life years lost by 2050.ConclusionsComplete implementation of WHO FCTC recommended policies would prevent more than 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths in China by 2050. Implementation of FCTC policies would alleviate a substantial portion of the tobacco related health burden that threatens to slow China's extraordinary gains in life expectancy and prosperity.

Project description:BackgroundUNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.Methods and findingsWe simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.ConclusionsThe new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Project description:BackgroundBrazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.Methods and findingsThe model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.ConclusionsBrazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

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Tobacco Free Ireland 2025: SimSmoke prediction for the end game.

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Tobacco Free Ireland 2025: SimSmoke prediction for the end game.

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