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MELD-Na Is More Strongly Associated with Risk of Infection and Outcomes Than Other Characteristics of Patients with Cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND AIMS:The nature and outcomes of infection among patients with cirrhosis in safety-net hospitals are not well described. We aimed to characterize the rate of and risk factors for infection, both present on admission and nosocomial, in this unique population. We hypothesized that infections would be associated with adverse outcomes such as short-term mortality. METHODS:We used descriptive statistics to characterize infections within a retrospective cohort characterized previously. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential risk factors for infection and associations with key outcomes such as short-term mortality and length of stay. RESULTS:The study cohort of 1112 patients included 33% women with a mean age of 56?±?10 years. Infections were common (20%), with respiratory and urinary tract infections the most frequent. We did not observe a difference in the incidence of infection on admission based on patient demographic factors such as race/ethnicity or estimated household income. Infections on admission were associated with greater short-term mortality (12% vs 4% in-hospital and 14% vs 7% 30-day), longer length of stay (6 vs 3 days), intensive care unit admission (28% vs 18%), and acute-on-chronic liver failure (10% vs 2%) (p?

SUBMITTER: Fricker ZP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7222109 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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MELD-Na Is More Strongly Associated with Risk of Infection and Outcomes Than Other Characteristics of Patients with Cirrhosis.

Fricker Zachary P ZP Mukthinuthalapati V V Pavan Kedar VVPK Akinyeye Samuel S Chalasani Naga N Attar Bashar M BM Balakrishnan Maya M Ghabril Marwan M Long Michelle T MT

Digestive diseases and sciences 20200225 1

<h4>Background and aims</h4>The nature and outcomes of infection among patients with cirrhosis in safety-net hospitals are not well described. We aimed to characterize the rate of and risk factors for infection, both present on admission and nosocomial, in this unique population. We hypothesized that infections would be associated with adverse outcomes such as short-term mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>We used descriptive statistics to characterize infections within a retrospective cohort characterize ...[more]

PMID: 32100160

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Project description:Background and aimsAccurate assessment of the risk of mortality following a cirrhosis-related admission can enable health-care providers to identify high-risk patients and modify treatment plans to decrease the risk of mortality.MethodsWe developed a post-discharge mortality prediction model for patients with a cirrhosis-related admission using a population of 314,292 patients who received care either at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) between 1992 and 2010. We extracted 68 variables from the electronic medical records (EMRs), including demographics, laboratory values, diagnosis codes, and medications. We then used a regularized logistic regression to select the most informative variables and created a risk score that comprises the selected variables. To evaluate the potential for generalizability of our score, we applied it on all cirrhosis-related admissions between 2010 and 2015 at an independent EMR data source of more than 18 million patients, pooled from different health-care systems with EMRs. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to assess prediction performance.ResultsWe identified 4,781 cirrhosis-related admissions at MGH/BWH hospitals, of which 778 resulted in death within 90 days of discharge. Nine variables were the most effective predictors for 90-day mortality, and these included all MELD-Na's components, as well as albumin, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, age, and length of stay. Applying our nine-variable risk score (denoted as "MELD-Plus") resulted in an improvement over MELD and MELD-Na scores in several prediction models. On the MGH/BWH 90-day model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 11.4% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.75-0.81] versus 0.70 [95% CI, 0.66-0.73]). In the MGH/BWH approximate 1-year model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 8.3% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.79] versus 0.72 [95% CI, 0.71-0.73]). Performance improvement was similar when the novel MELD-Plus risk score was applied to an independent database; when considering 24,042 cirrhosis-related admissions, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 16.9% (0.69 [95% CI, 0.69-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.58-0.60]).ConclusionsWe developed a new risk score, MELD-Plus that accurately stratifies the short-term mortality of patients with established cirrhosis, following a hospital admission. Our findings demonstrate that using a small set of easily accessible structured variables can help identify novel predictors of outcomes in cirrhosis patients and improve the performance of widely used traditional risk scores.

Project description:BackgroundControversy exists regarding the best predictive model of liver transplant waiting list (WL) mortality. Models for end-stage liver disease-glomerular filtration rate assessment in liver disease (MELD-GRAIL) and MELD-GRAIL-Na were recently described to provide better prognostication, particularly in females. We evaluated the performance of these scores compared to MELD and MELD-Na.MethodsConsecutive patients with cirrhosis waitlisted for liver transplant from 1998 to 2017 were examined in this single-center study. The primary outcome was 90-d WL mortality. MELD, MELD-Na, MELD-GRAIL, and MELD-GRAIL-Na at the time of WL registration were compared. Model discrimination was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and Harrell's C-index after fitting Cox models. Model calibration was examined with Grønnesby and Borgan's modification of the Hosmer-Lemeshow formula and by comparing predicted/observed outcomes across model strata.ResultsThe study population comprised 1108 patients with a median age of 53.5 (interquartile range 48-59) y and male predominance (74.9%). All models had excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the primary outcome (MELD 0.89, MELD-Na 0.91, MELD-GRAIL 0.89, MELD-GRAIL-Na 0.89; all comparisons P > 0.05). Youden index cutoffs for 90-d mortality were as follows: MELD, 19; MELD-Na, 22; MELD-GRAIL, 18; and MELD-GRAIL-Na, 17. Variables associated with 90-d mortality on multivariable Cox regression were sodium, bilirubin, creatinine, and international normalized ratio. There were no differences in model discrimination using Harrell's C-index. All models were well calibrated; however, divergence between observed and predicted mortality was noted with scores ≥25.ConclusionThere were no demonstrable differences in discrimination or calibration of GRAIL-based models compared with MELD or MELD-Na in our cohort. This suggests that GRAIL-based models may not have meaningful improvements in discriminatory ability when applied to other settings.

Project description:ObjectivesMultiparticipant physical and occupational therapy provision has fluctuated significantly in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) under shifts in Medicare reimbursement policy. Multiparticipant therapy includes group (2-6 individuals per therapist) and concurrent therapy (2 individuals per therapist). This study uses recent patient-level data to characterize multiparticipant therapy provision in SNFs to help anticipate shifts under new Medicare policy and the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThis secondary analysis used data on 1,016,984 post-acute rehabilitation stays in SNFs in 2018. This analysis identified patient predictors (eg, demographic, clinical) and organizational predictors (eg, ownership, quality, staffing) of receiving multiparticipant therapy using mixed-effects logistic regression. Among individuals who received any multiparticipant therapy, those patient or facility factors associated with high rates of multiparticipant therapy provision were also determined.ResultsLess than 3% of individuals received multiparticipant therapy in 2018. Patient functional and cognitive impairment and indicators of market regulation were associated with lower odds of multiparticipant therapy. Effect sizes for organizational factors associated with multiparticipant therapy provision were generally larger compared with patient factors. High multiparticipant therapy provision was concentrated in <2% of SNFs and was positively associated with for-profit ownership, contract staffing, and low 5-star quality ratings.ConclusionSNF organizational characteristics tended to have stronger associations with multiparticipant therapy provision than patient factors, suggesting that changes in patient case-mix, as expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, may have less of an impact on multiparticipant therapy provision than organizational factors. Results suggest that for-profit SNFs in states with higher market regulation, SNFs providing high volumes of therapy, and SNFs utilizing high proportions of assistants and contract staff may be more responsive to Medicare policy by increasing multiparticipant therapy provision.ImpactThis study may help identify SNFs that are more likely to increase multiparticipant therapy provision under new Medicare payment policy.

Project description:Background & aimsDeep remission, based on clinical remission and evidence of healing during endoscopic evaluation, are goals of medical treatments for Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated whether histologic healing is associated with outcomes of patients with CD ileitis.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of 101 patients with CD (52% male) isolated to the terminal ileum who had a colonoscopy between September 2005 and June 2015. Our analysis included patients in clinical remission at colonoscopy who had biopsies collected from colon and ileum. The ileum was evaluated for endoscopic healing (no ulceration) and histologic evidence of healing (no active inflammation, erosions, ulceration, or neutrophil infiltration). We compared times of clinical relapse-free survival, medication escalation, corticosteroid use, or hospitalization secondary to disease activity between patients with and without histological and endoscopic healing, followed for a median 21 months. We identified factors associated with survival using Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard model.ResultsAt ileo-colonoscopy, 63% of patients had endoscopic healing and 55% had histologic evidence of healing. The level of agreement between endoscopic and histologic activity was fair (62%, K = 0.2250, P = .0064). Forty-two patients had clinical relapse, 45 had medication escalation, 30 required corticosteroids, and 17 were hospitalized (3 required surgery). On multivariate analysis, only histologic healing was associated with decreased risk of clinical relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.07-3.94; P = .031), medication escalation (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.2-3.96; P = .011), and corticosteroid use (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.17-5.09; P = .018). No factors were associated with hospitalization.ConclusionsIn patients with ileal CD in clinical remission, histologic healing but not endoscopic healing is associated with decreased risk of clinical relapse, medication escalation, or corticosteroid use.

Dataset Information

MELD-Na Is More Strongly Associated with Risk of Infection and Outcomes Than Other Characteristics of Patients with Cirrhosis.

Publications

MELD-Na Is More Strongly Associated with Risk of Infection and Outcomes Than Other Characteristics of Patients with Cirrhosis.

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