Dataset Information

Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis.

ABSTRACT: Reliable modelling of the dynamics of cancer morbidity risk is important, not least due to its significant impact on healthcare and related policies. We identify morbidity trends and regional differences in England for all-cancer and type-specific incidence between 1981 and 2016. We use Bayesian modelling to estimate cancer morbidity incidence at various age, year, gender, and region levels. Our analysis shows increasing trends in most rates and marked regional variations that also appear to intensify through time in most cases. All-cancer rates have increased significantly, with the highest increase in East, North West and North East. The absolute difference between the rates in the highest- and lowest-incidence region, per 100,000 people, has widened from 39 (95% CI 33-45) to 86 (78-94) for females, and from 94 (85-104) to 116 (105-127) for males. Lung cancer incidence for females has shown the highest increase in Yorkshire and the Humber, while for males it has declined in all regions with the highest decrease in London. The gap between the highest- and lowest-incidence region for females has widened from 47 (42-51) to 94 (88-100). Temporal change in in bowel cancer risk is less manifested, with regional heterogeneity also declining. Prostate cancer incidence has increased with the highest increase in London, and the regional gap has expanded from 33 (30-36) to 76 (69-83). For breast cancer incidence the highest increase has occurred in North East, while the regional variation shows a less discernible increase. The analysis reveals that there are important regional differences in the incidence of all-type and type-specific cancers, and that most of these regional differences become more pronounced over time. A significant increase in regional variation has been demonstrated for most types of cancer examined here, except for bowel cancer where differences have narrowed.

SUBMITTER: Ar?k A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7239391 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis.

Arık Ayşe A Dodd Erengul E Streftaris George G

PloS one 20200520 5

Reliable modelling of the dynamics of cancer morbidity risk is important, not least due to its significant impact on healthcare and related policies. We identify morbidity trends and regional differences in England for all-cancer and type-specific incidence between 1981 and 2016. We use Bayesian modelling to estimate cancer morbidity incidence at various age, year, gender, and region levels. Our analysis shows increasing trends in most rates and marked regional variations that also appear to int ...[more]

PMID: 32433663

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Project description:BackgroundShort stature, defined as height for age more than 2 standard deviations (SDs) below the population median, is an important indicator of child health. Short stature (often termed stunting) has been widely researched in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but less is known about the extent and burden in high-income settings. We aimed to map the prevalence of short stature in children aged 4-5 years in England between 2006 and 2019.Methods and findingsWe used data from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) for the school years 2006-2007 to 2018-2019. All children attending state-maintained primary schools in England are invited to participate in the NCMP, and heights from a total of 7,062,071 children aged 4-5 years were analysed. We assessed short stature, defined as a height-for-age standard deviation score (SDS) below -2 using the United Kingdom WHO references, by sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), ethnicity, and region. Geographic clustering of short stature was analysed using spatial analysis in SaTScan. The prevalence of short stature in England was 1.93% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92-1.94). Ethnicity adjusted spatial analyses showed geographic heterogeneity of short stature, with high prevalence clusters more likely in the North and Midlands, leading to 4-fold variation between local authorities (LAs) with highest and lowest prevalence of short stature. Short stature was linearly associated with IMD, with almost 2-fold higher prevalence in the most compared with least deprived decile (2.56% (2.53-2.59) vs. 1.38% (1.35-1.41)). There was ethnic heterogeneity: Short stature prevalence was lowest in Black children (0.64% (0.61-0.67)) and highest in Indian children (2.52% (2.45-2.60)) and children in other ethnic categories (2.57% (2.51-2.64)). Girls were more likely to have short stature than boys (2.09% (2.07-2.10) vs. 1.77% (1.76-1.78), respectively). Short stature prevalence declined over time, from 2.03% (2.01-2.05) in 2006-2010 to 1.82% (1.80-1.84) in 2016-2019. Short stature declined at all levels of area deprivation, with faster declines in more deprived areas, but disparities by IMD quintile were persistent. This study was conducted cross-sectionally at an area level, and, therefore, we cannot make any inferences about the individual causes of short stature.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a clear social gradient and striking regional variation in short stature across England, including a North-South divide. These findings provide impetus for further investigation into potential socioeconomic influences on height and the factors underlying regional variation.

Project description:In 1994, a pilot program of cervical cancer screening was introduced in the Alsace region, France. Women aged 25-65 years were proposed to have one Pap smear every 3 years. The objective was to assess cervical morbidity in Alsace before the human papillomavirus vaccinated population reaches the age of screening. Data on cervical lesions and cancers were collected by EVE for the period September 2008 to August 2011 from existing medical services and cytopathology laboratories in Alsace. Cytological and histological data were completed with data from the two cancer registries covering the region (Bas-Rhin and Haut-Rhin). Cancer incidence rates were computed for the target population (truncated to 25-64 years) and were age standardized according to the world reference population. World standardized incidence rates for the whole female population were obtained from the two cancer registries. During 2008-2011, 565?153 smears were performed in 498?913 women aged 25-64 years, representing an average of 1.13 smears/woman and 1.62 smears/screened woman. The overall screening coverage was 70.1% over the 3-year period. Histologically confirmed high-grade lesions were found in 2303 women (0.5%). Moreover, 215 cervical cancers were reported among women aged 25-64 years (crude and standardized truncated incidence rate of 10.6 and 10.0/100?000 women-years, respectively). The overall screening coverage of 70% at 3 years is higher than the national rate (57%), and the overall cancer incidence of 5.5/100?000 is below the national French level. The EVE database will be useful to assess trends in cervical morbidity over time and to further assess the effect of screening as well as of human papillomavirus vaccination.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Project description:Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts.Suicide and corresponding general population data were obtained from the National Records of Scotland, 1950 to 2014. Age and gender specific mortality rates were estimated. Age, period and cohort patterns were explored graphically by trend analysis.A pattern was found whereby successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 experienced higher suicide rates, in increasingly younger age groups, echoing findings reported for England & Wales. Young men (aged 20-39) were found to have a marked and statistically significant increase in suicide between those in the 1960 and 1965 birth cohorts. The 1965 cohort peaked in suicide rate aged 35-39, and the subsequent 1970 cohort peaked even younger, aged 25-29; it is possible that these 1965 and 1970 cohorts are at greater mass vulnerability to suicide than earlier cohorts. This was reflected in data for England & Wales, but to a lesser extent. Suicide rates associated with male birth cohorts subsequent to 1975 were less severe, and not statistically significantly different from earlier cohorts, suggestive of an amelioration of any possible influential 'cohort' effect. Scottish female suicide rates for all age groups converged and stabilised over time. Women have not been as affected as men, with less variation in patterns by different birth cohorts and with a much less convincing corresponding pattern suggestive of a 'cohort' effect.Trend analysis is useful in identifying 'vulnerable' cohorts, providing opportunities to develop suicide prevention strategies addressing these cohorts as they age.

Dataset Information

Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis.

Publications

Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis.

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