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Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by a readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. The critical temperature, which eliminates the exponential growth, and thus the COVID-19 spread in US regions, is estimated to be TC = 86.1 ± 4.3 F0.

SUBMITTER: Livadiotis G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7259789 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.

Livadiotis George G

PloS one 20200529 5

We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by a readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temp ...[more]

PMID: 32469989

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Project description:The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31st December 2020 to 3rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6°C to 10.5°C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10°C to 16°C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2°C to 6°C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

Dataset Information

Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.

Publications

Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.

Similar Datasets

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