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Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population From the INHANCE Consortium.

ABSTRACT: Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, including 14 US studies from 1981-2010, to develop HNC risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop the risk prediction models; the remaining 30% were used to validate the models. We used competing-risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity, and/or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute risk of HNC was 7.61% for a 60-year-old woman who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for over 20 years, consumed 3 or more alcoholic drinks per day, was a high school graduate, had a family history of HNC, and was non-Hispanic white. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85%. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. Statistics for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.70 or higher, except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. This HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation or in aiding persons with a family history of HNC to evaluate their risks.

SUBMITTER: Lee YA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7274188 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIncreasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients.MethodsWe pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ? 45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17700 cases and 22?704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsThe young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI=9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking=5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR=2.27 (95% CI=1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR=1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults.ConclusionsDifferences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

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Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population From the INHANCE Consortium.

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