The potential impact of COVID-19-related disruption on tuberculosis burden.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: McQuaid CF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7278504 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases.MethodsHere, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence.ResultsOur calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187-276) excess deaths in India, 111k (CI 93-134) in Indonesia, 27k (CI 21-33) in Pakistan, and 12k (CI 9-18) in Kenya.ConclusionsWe show that it is possible to reverse these excess deaths by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities from 15 to 50% for 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality that could be caused by the COVID-19 pandemic if no additional preventative measures are introduced. Our work therefore provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come.
| S-EPMC9243113 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of death globally. India carries the highest share of the global TB burden. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted diagnosis of TB in India, yet there is limited data on how TB case reporting has changed since the pandemic began and which factors determine differences in case notification.MethodsWe utilized publicly available data on TB case reporting through the Indian Central TB Division from January 2017 through April of 2021 (prior to the first COVID-19 related lockdown). Using a Poisson model, we estimated seasonal and yearly patterns in TB case notification in India from January 2017 through February 2020 and extended this estimate as the counterfactual expected TB cases notified from March 2020 through April 2021. We characterized the differences in case notification observed and those expected in the absence of the pandemic by State and Territory. We then performed a linear regression to examine the relationship between the logit ratio of reported TB to counterfactual cases and mask use, mobility, daily hospitalizations/100,000 population, and public/total TB case reporting.ResultsWe found 1,320,203 expected cases of TB (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1,309,612 to 1,330,693) were not reported during the period from March 2020 through April 2021. This represents a 63.3% difference (95% UI 62.8 to 63.8) in reporting. We found that mobility data and average hospital admissions per month per population were correlated with differences in TB case notification, compared to the counterfactual in the absence of the pandemic (p > 0.001).ConclusionThere was a large difference between reported TB cases in India and those expected in the absence of the pandemic. This information can help inform the Indian TB program as they consider interventions to accelerate case finding and notification once the pandemic related TB service disruptions improve. Mobility data and hospital admissions are surrogate measures that correlate with a greater difference in reported/expected TB cases and may correlate with a disruption in TB diagnostic services. However, further research is needed to clarify this association and identify other key contributors to gaps in TB case notifications in India.
| S-EPMC8792515 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRoutine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated.MethodsWe adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact.FindingsEven temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06-1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333-394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100-44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8-17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826-6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815-1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary "catch-up" TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased.InterpretationLockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted.FundingUSAID and Stop TB Partnership.
| S-EPMC7584493 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.
| S-EPMC7470592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic, which originated in China. At the host level, COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), affects the respiratory system, with the clinical symptoms ranging from mild to severe or critical illness that often requires hospitalization and oxygen support. There is no specific therapy for COVID-19, as is the case for any common viral disease except drugs to reduce the viral load and alleviate the inflammatory symptoms. Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), also primarily affects the lungs and has clinical signs similar to pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Active TB is a leading killer among infectious diseases and adds to the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. In immunocompetent individuals, primary Mtb infection can also lead to a non-progressive, asymptomatic latency. However, latent Mtb infection (LTBI) can reactivate symptomatic TB disease upon host immune-suppressing conditions. Importantly, the diagnosis and treatment of TB are hampered and admixed with COVID-19 control measures. The US-Center for Disease Control (US-CDC) recommends using antiviral drugs, Remdesivir or corticosteroid (CST), such as dexamethasone either alone or in-combination with specific recommendations for COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization or oxygen support. However, CSTs can cause immunosuppression, besides their anti-inflammatory properties. The altered host immunity during COVID-19, combined with CST therapy, poses a significant risk for new secondary infections and/or reactivation of existing quiescent infections, such as LTBI. This review highlights CST therapy recommendations for COVID-19, various types and mechanisms of action of CSTs, the deadly combination of two respiratory infectious diseases COVID-19 and TB. It also discusses the importance of screening for LTBI to prevent TB reactivation during corticosteroid therapy for COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8038708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUniversity students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.MethodsWe developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students.ResultsIf arriving students reduce their contacts by 40% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 115% (from 3,515 to 7,551), with 70% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 19 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 8. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 196 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 237.InterpretationUniversity students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
| S-EPMC8360395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At the beginning of 2020, a sudden outbreak of new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), infections led to anxiety, panic, and crisis among people worldwide. The outbreak first occurred in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019 and then spread rapidly across the globe, thus becoming a major public health emergency. Although the current epidemic situation in China tends to be stable, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread globally. At present, no specific therapeutic drugs and vaccines are available against COVID-19. Also, the pathogenesis of the SARS-CoV-2 is not fully clear. Human immunity is important in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Studies have shown that excessive inflammation caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent induced uncontrolled cytokine storm are the main causes of disease deterioration and death of severe patients. Therefore, immune-related research is of great significance for the prevention, control, and prognosis of COVID-19. This study aimed to review the latest research on immune-related treatment of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7870867 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and management of tuberculosis (TB) patients is unknown.MethodsParticipating centres completed a structured web-based survey regarding changes to TB patient management during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also included data from participating centres on patients aged ≥18 diagnosed with TB in 2 periods: March 15 to June 30, 2020 and March 15 to June 30, 2019. Clinical variables and information about patient household contacts were retrospectively collected.ResultsA total of 7 (70%) TB units reported changes in their usual TB team operations. Across both periods of study, 169 patients were diagnosed with active TB (90 in 2019, 79 in 2020). Patients diagnosed in 2020 showed more frequent bilateral lesions in chest X-ray than patients diagnosed in 2019 (P = 0.004). There was a higher percentage of latent TB infection and active TB among children in households of patients diagnosed in 2020, compared with 2019 (P = 0.001).ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial changes in TB care. TB patients diagnosed during the COVID-19 pandemic showed more extended pulmonary forms. The increase in latent TB infection and active TB in children of patient households could reflect increased household transmission due to anti-COVID-19 measures.
| S-EPMC8078060 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST563 | biostudies-other
Project description:The year 2020 has been plagued with COVID-19 and many sectors such as the manufacturing and services are affected, with the educational sector being one of them. Even though a probable way through online learning is found to continue academic activities, the result and the process may not be successful. This study intends to identify the areas of educational disruption due to the COVID-19 situation. For this purpose, a structured questionnaire is used to collect data from students of various part of the Northeast states of India. The findings from the study revealed that there are many reasons that causes educational disruption in the life of students of north-eastern states of India. Students from the north-eastern states of India have been facing poor network, which leads to poor communication between the teachers and students. Continuous lockdown also causes mental stress to the students. As the tension rises due to the on-going pandemic, insecurity regarding the future plans of students also rises. Owing to financial constraints, students are not able to meet the necessary requirements for effective online learning.
| S-EPMC7708175 | biostudies-literature