Dataset Information

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model.

ABSTRACT: Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model's dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. In any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, we recommend that associated uncertainty analysis be included with perturbations of the initial conditions.

SUBMITTER: McGregor VL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7292022 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model.

McGregor Vidette L VL Fulton Elizabeth A EA Dunn Matthew R MR

PeerJ 20200603

Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncert ...[more]

PMID: 32551197

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Dataset Information

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model.

Publications

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model.

Similar Datasets

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