Dataset Information

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

ABSTRACT: We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

SUBMITTER: Vermeulen SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3666685 | biostudies-literature | 2013 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

Vermeulen Sonja J SJ Challinor Andrew J AJ Thornton Philip K PK Campbell Bruce M BM Eriyagama Nishadi N Vervoort Joost M JM Kinyangi James J Jarvis Andy A Läderach Peter P Ramirez-Villegas Julian J Nicklin Kathryn J KJ Hawkins Ed E Smith Daniel R DR

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130514 21

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases de ...[more]

PMID: 23674681

Similar Datasets

Project description:In an effort to mitigate anthropogenic effects on the global climate system, industrialised countries are required to quantify and report, for various economic sectors, the annual emissions of greenhouse gases from their several sources and the absorption of the same in different sinks. These estimates are uncertain, and this uncertainty must be communicated effectively, if government bodies, research scientists or members of the public are to draw sound conclusions. Our interest is in communicating the uncertainty in estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture to those who might directly use the results from the inventory. We tested six methods of communication. These were: a verbal scale using the IPCC calibrated phrases such as 'likely' and 'very unlikely'; probabilities that emissions are within a defined range of values; confidence intervals for the expected value; histograms; box plots; and shaded arrays that depict the probability density of the uncertain quantity. In a formal trial we used these methods to communicate uncertainty about four specific inferences about greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. Sixty four individuals who use results from the greenhouse gas inventory professionally participated in the trial, and we tested how effectively the uncertainty about these inferences was communicated by means of a questionnaire. Our results showed differences in the efficacy of the methods of communication, and interactions with the nature of the target audience. We found that, although the verbal scale was thought to be a good method of communication it did not convey enough information and was open to misinterpretation. Shaded arrays were similarly criticised for being open to misinterpretation, but proved to give the best impression of uncertainty when participants were asked to interpret results from the greenhouse gas inventory. Box plots were most favoured by our participants largely because they were particularly favoured by those who worked in research or had a stronger mathematical background. We propose a combination of methods should be used to convey uncertainty in emissions and that this combination should be tailored to the professional group.

Project description:Intolerance of Uncertainty is a trans-diagnostic process that spans a range of emotional disorders and it is usually measured through the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-12. The current study aims at investigating some issues in the assessment of Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) through the Italian Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Revised, a measure adapted from the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-12 to assess IU across the lifespan. In particular we address the factor structure among a large community sample, measurement invariance across gender, age, and over time, together with reliability and validity of the overall scale and its subscales. The questionnaire was administered to community (N = 761; mean age = 35.86 ± 14.01 years) and undergraduate (N = 163; mean age = 21.16 ± 2.64 years) participants, together with other self-report measures assessing constructs theoretically related to IU. The application of a bifactor model shows that the Italian Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Revised possesses a robust general factor, thus supporting the use of the unit-weighted total score of the questionnaire as a measure of the construct. Furthermore, measurement invariance across gender, age, and over time is supported. Finally, the Italian Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Revised appears to possess adequate reliability and validity. These findings support the unidimensionality of the measure, a conceptually reasonable result in line with the trans-diagnostic nature of Intolerance of Uncertainty. In addition, this study and comparison with published factor structures of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-12 and of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Revised identify some issues for the internal structure of the measure. In particular, concern is expressed for the Prospective IU subscale. In light of the promising psychometric properties, the use of the Italian Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-Revised as a univocal measure is encouraged in both research and clinical practice.

Project description:Beam angle optimization (BAO) by far remains an important and challenging problem in external beam radiation therapy treatment planning. Conventional BAO algorithms discussed in previous studies all focused on photon-based therapies. Impact of BAO on proton therapy is important while proton therapy increasingly receives great interests. This study focuses on potential benefits of BAO on intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) that recently began available to clinical cancer treatment.The authors have developed a novel uncertainty incorporated BAO algorithm for IMPT treatment planning in that IMPT plan quality is highly sensitive to uncertainties such as proton range and setup errors. A linear programming was used to optimize robust intensity maps to scenario-based uncertainties for an incident beam angle configuration. Unlike conventional intensity-modulated radiation therapy with photons (IMXT), the search space for IMPT treatment beam angles may be relatively small but optimizing an IMPT plan may require higher computational costs due to larger data size. Therefore, a deterministic local neighborhood search algorithm that only needs a very limited number of plan objective evaluations was used to optimize beam angles in IMPT treatment planning.Three prostate cancer cases and two skull base chordoma cases were studied to demonstrate the dosimetric advantages and robustness of optimized beam angles from the proposed BAO algorithm. Two- to four-beam plans were optimized for prostate cases, and two- and three-beam plans were optimized for skull base cases. By comparing plans with conventional two parallel-opposed angles, all plans with optimized angles consistently improved sparing at organs at risks, i.e., rectum and femoral heads for prostate, brainstem for skull base, in either nominal dose distribution or uncertainty-based dose distributions. The efficiency of the BAO algorithm was demonstrated by comparing it with alternative methods including simulated annealing and genetic algorithm. The numbers of IMPT plan objective evaluations required were reduced by up to a factor of 5 while the same optimal angle plans were converged in selected comparisons.Uncertainty incorporated BAO may introduce pronounced improvement of IMPT plan quality including dosimetric benefits and robustness over uncertainties, based on the five clinical studies in this paper. In addition, local search algorithms may be more efficient in finding optimal beam angles than global optimization approaches for IMPT BAO.

Dataset Information

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

Publications

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure