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The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the strength of public health interventions to prevent the second outbreak of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threatened the social and economic structure all around the world. Generally, COVID-19 has three possible transmission routes, including pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, among which the last one has brought a severe challenge for the containment of the disease. One core scientific question is to understand the influence of asymptomatic individuals and of the strength of control measures on the evolution of the disease, particularly on a second outbreak of the disease. To explore these issues, we proposed a novel compartmental model that takes the infection of asymptomatic individuals into account. We get the relationship between asymptomatic individuals and critical strength of control measures theoretically. Furthermore, we verify the reliability of our model and the accuracy of the theoretical analysis by using the real confirmed cases of COVID-19 contamination. Our results, showing the importance of the asymptomatic population on the control measures, would provide useful theoretical reference to the policymakers and fuel future studies of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7293829 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the strength of public health interventions to prevent the second outbreak of COVID-19.

Wang Xiaochen X Wang Shengfeng S Lan Yueheng Y Tao Xiaofeng X Xiao Jinghua J

Nonlinear dynamics 20200614 3

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threatened the social and economic structure all around the world. Generally, COVID-19 has three possible transmission routes, including pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, among which the last one has brought a severe challenge for the containment of the disease. One core scientific question is to understand the influence of asymptomatic individuals and of the strength of control measures on the evolution of the dis ...[more]

PMID: 32836800

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Project description:ImportanceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, and it is unknown whether a combination of public health interventions can improve control of the outbreak.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of public health interventions with the epidemiological features of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by 5 periods according to key events and interventions.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, individual-level data on 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between December 8, 2019, and March 8, 2020, were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System, including patients' age, sex, residential location, occupation, and severity classification.ExposuresNonpharmaceutical public health interventions including cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction, social distancing, home confinement, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey.Main outcomes and measuresRates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections (defined as the number of cases per day per million people), across age, sex, and geographic locations were calculated across 5 periods: December 8 to January 9 (no intervention), January 10 to 22 (massive human movement due to the Chinese New Year holiday), January 23 to February 1 (cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction and home quarantine), February 2 to 16 (centralized quarantine and treatment), and February 17 to March 8 (universal symptom survey). The effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (an indicator of secondary transmission) was also calculated over the periods.ResultsAmong 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, the median patient age was 56.7 years (range, 0-103; interquartile range, 43.4-66.8) and 16 817 (51.6%) were women. The daily confirmed case rate peaked in the third period and declined afterward across geographic regions and sex and age groups, except for children and adolescents, whose rate of confirmed cases continued to increase. The daily confirmed case rate over the whole period in local health care workers (130.5 per million people [95% CI, 123.9-137.2]) was higher than that in the general population (41.5 per million people [95% CI, 41.0-41.9]). The proportion of severe and critical cases decreased from 53.1% to 10.3% over the 5 periods. The severity risk increased with age: compared with those aged 20 to 39 years (proportion of severe and critical cases, 12.1%), elderly people (≥80 years) had a higher risk of having severe or critical disease (proportion, 41.3%; risk ratio, 3.61 [95% CI, 3.31-3.95]) while younger people (<20 years) had a lower risk (proportion, 4.1%; risk ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.70]). The effective reproduction number fluctuated above 3.0 before January 26, decreased to below 1.0 after February 6, and decreased further to less than 0.3 after March 1.Conclusions and relevanceA series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may inform public health policy in other countries and regions.

Project description:BackgroundNormative data are essential to the evaluation of shoulder function. The purposes of this study were to establish a normative database of isometric shoulder strength measured in asymptomatic individuals verified to have intact rotator cuffs and to determine the effect of asymptomatic rotator cuff tears on shoulder strength.MethodsTwo hundred and thirty-seven volunteers with no shoulder pain or history of shoulder injury were screened with ultrasonography bilaterally for rotator cuff tears and then underwent isometric strength measurements for abduction in the scapular plane and external rotation. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of age, body habitus, hand dominance, and the presence of a rotator cuff tear on shoulder strength.ResultsOf the 237 volunteers, forty-one were found to have a torn rotator cuff in at least one shoulder. The prevalence of rotator cuff tears was 0% for the subjects between forty and forty-nine years old; 10%, between fifty and fifty-nine years old; 20%, between sixty and sixty-nine years old; and 40.7% for those seventy years old or older. Both abduction strength and external rotation strength in the male subjects showed an age-dependent decrease, whereas only abduction strength showed an age-dependent decrease in the female subjects. In multiple regression analysis, age and weight were the most important predictors of abduction strength and external rotation strength, respectively. In the shoulders with a large-to-massive full-thickness rotator cuff tear, abduction strength was significantly decreased (p = 0.007). Additionally, the ratio of abduction strength to external rotation strength was significantly decreased in the shoulders with a large-to-massive full-thickness tear compared with the shoulders with an intact rotator cuff (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThere is a high prevalence of rotator cuff tears in elderly asymptomatic individuals. Asymptomatic shoulders with a large-to-massive full-thickness rotator cuff tear have significantly decreased abduction strength. When there is a substantial decrease in abduction strength in relation to external rotation strength, the presence of an asymptomatic full-thickness tear should be suspected in that shoulder. Previous studies establishing normative values for isometric shoulder strength may have been skewed by the presence of asymptomatic rotator cuff tears in elderly subgroups.

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The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the strength of public health interventions to prevent the second outbreak of COVID-19.

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The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the strength of public health interventions to prevent the second outbreak of COVID-19.

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