Dataset Information

[Deaths in nine regions of Italy in February/March 2020: "Mortality Excess Loupe" for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19-Epidemiology in Germany].

ABSTRACT: Italy is particularly affected by SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Recently, Colombo and Impicciatore compared the deaths in 1084 selected municipalities between 21 February 2020 and 21 March 2020 with deaths in the same time period in 2015 to 2019. We extend analyses of data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and calculate SMRs for all causes of death in the nine selected regions of Italy, separately for men and women and summarized. We analyze the effect of covariables by Poisson modelling and discuss the limitations of the current elaborations. We conclude: In agreement with Colombo and Impicciatore, in the particular corona situation, this "mortality excess loupe" - assuming otherwise constant determinants of death - can be a virus-test-independent tool to determine mortality effects of SARS-CoV-2. The current "loupe" is focused on municipalities with increases of more than 20% deaths in March 2020 compared to the average deaths on the same days in 2015-2019. The time window of investigation could be opened before 21 February 2020 to detect masked increases in mortality before the first "COVID-19 death" was ascertained. The current "loupe" conveys pronounced mortality increases also in regions that were not considered to be corona hotspots. In this respect, even in the absence of representative virus test results, mortality data can be important indicators of the distribution or spread of a newly acting factor. Overall, it is advisable to carry out SMR analyses for Germany on a regular basis, differentiated by region, gender, age group and cause of death. Such analyses can contribute to the early detection and evaluation of the severity of a deadly pandemic ("burden of disease") as well as to monitoring the dynamic spread of a factor such as SARS-CoV-2. SMR analyses can also be used to assess and evaluate both desired and undesired effects of measures taken against SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 - and possibly other epidemics or pandemics.

SUBMITTER: Morfeld P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7295299 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

[Deaths in nine regions of Italy in February/March 2020: "Mortality Excess Loupe" for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19-Epidemiology in Germany].

Morfeld Peter P Erren Thomas C TC

Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany)) 20200430 5

Italy is particularly affected by SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Recently, Colombo and Impicciatore compared the deaths in 1084 selected municipalities between 21 February 2020 and 21 March 2020 with deaths in the same time period in 2015 to 2019. We extend analyses of data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and calculate SMRs for all causes of death in the nine selected regions of Italy, separately for men and women and summarized. We analyze the effect of covariables by Poisson mo ...[more]

PMID: 32356298

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Project description:ImportanceEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19.ObjectiveTo estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020.Design, setting, and populationThis observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresIncreases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data.ResultsThere were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19-reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths.Conclusions and relevanceExcess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.

Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths.MethodsWe estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths.FindingsWe estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021).InterpretationEstimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.FundingNone.

Dataset Information

[Deaths in nine regions of Italy in February/March 2020: "Mortality Excess Loupe" for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19-Epidemiology in Germany].

Publications

[Deaths in nine regions of Italy in February/March 2020: "Mortality Excess Loupe" for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19-Epidemiology in Germany].

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