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Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

ABSTRACT: Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Chen YH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9272175 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

Chen Yea-Hung YH Stokes Andrew C AC Aschmann Hélène E HE Chen Ruijia R DeVost Shelley S Kiang Mathew V MV Koliwad Suneil S Riley Alicia R AR Glymour M Maria MM Bibbins-Domingo Kirsten K

PNAS nexus 20220608 3

Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death u ...[more]

PMID: 35832865

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Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths.MethodsWe estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths.FindingsWe estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021).InterpretationEstimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.FundingNone.

Project description:Official COVID-19 mortality statistics are strongly influenced by local diagnostic capacity, strength of the healthcare and vital registration systems, and death certification criteria and capacity, often resulting in significant undercounting of COVID-19 attributable deaths. Excess mortality, which is defined as the increase in observed death counts compared to a baseline expectation, provides an alternate measure of the mortality shock-both direct and indirect-of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we use data from civil death registers from a convenience sample of 90 (of 162) municipalities across the state of Gujarat, India, to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality. Using a model fit to weekly data from January 2019 to February 2020, we estimated excess mortality over the course of the pandemic from March 2020 to April 2021. During this period, the official government data reported 10,098 deaths attributable to COVID-19 for the entire state of Gujarat. We estimated 21,300 [95% CI: 20, 700, 22, 000] excess deaths across these 90 municipalities in this period, representing a 44% [95% CI: 43%, 45%] increase over the expected baseline. The sharpest increase in deaths in our sample was observed in late April 2021, with an estimated 678% [95% CI: 649%, 707%] increase in mortality from expected counts. The 40 to 65 age group experienced the highest increase in mortality relative to the other age groups. We found substantial increases in mortality for males and females. Our excess mortality estimate for these 90 municipalities, representing approximately at least 8% of the population, based on the 2011 census, exceeds the official COVID-19 death count for the entire state of Gujarat, even before the delta wave of the pandemic in India peaked in May 2021. Prior studies have concluded that true pandemic-related mortality in India greatly exceeds official counts. This study, using data directly from the first point of official death registration data recording, provides incontrovertible evidence of the high excess mortality in Gujarat from March 2020 to April 2021.

Project description:ImportanceOwing to infrastructural and population characteristics, the prison setting is at increased risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and for severe clinical outcomes. Because of structural and operational reasons, research in prison settings is challenging and available studies are often monocentric and have limited temporal coverage; broader-based research is necessary.ObjectivesTo assess the extent and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic within the prison system of a large Italian region, Lombardy, and report the infection prevention and control measures implemented.Design, setting, and participantsThis repeated cross-sectional study was carried out from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021 (first wave, March-June 2020; second wave, October 2020-February 2021) in the prison system of Lombardy, which includes 18 detention facilities for adults. All incarcerated persons and the prison staff of the penitentiary system of the Lombardy region participated in the study.ExposuresThe main exposures of interest were the weekly average number of incarcerated individuals placed in quarantine in single or shared isolation rooms, the rate of sick leave by symptomatic and asymptomatic prison staff reported to the prison occupational medicine department on a weekly basis, and the level of overcrowding.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome measures were weekly COVID-19 crude case rates, weekly test positivity rate, and the relative risk of acquiring the infection for prison staff, incarcerated persons, and the general population.ResultsThe study population comprised a mean of 7599 incarcerated individuals and 4591 prison staff. Approximately 5.1% of the prison population were women; demographic characteristics of the prison staff were not available. During the study, COVID-19 occurred in 1564 incarcerated individuals and 661 prison staff. Most of these cases were reported during the second wave (1474 in incarcerated individuals, 529 in prison staff), when stringent measures previously enforced were relaxed. During both epidemic waves, incarcerated individuals and prison staff had a higher relative risk for COVID-19 infection than the general population during both the first wave (incarcerated individuals: 1.30; 95% CI, 1.06-1.58; prison staff: 3.23; 95% CI, 2.74-3.84) and the second wave (incarcerated individuals: 3.91; 95% CI, 3.73-4.09; prison staff: 2.61; 95% CI, 2.41-2.82).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that the prison setting was an element of fragility during COVID-19 pandemic, with a high burden of COVID-19 cases among both the incarcerated individuals and prison staff. The prison setting and prison population need to be included and possibly prioritized in the response during epidemic events.

Dataset Information

Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

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Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021.

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