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Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT: The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017. Using a simplified two-strain SIR model, we demonstrate that the re-introduction of a dengue virus serotype that had been largely absent from the island in previous years may have played an important role in driving the epidemic, and provide a discussion of the possible roles for extreme weather events and human mobility patterns on the outbreak dynamics. Lastly, we provide estimates for the future burden of dengue across Sri Lanka using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 climate projections. Critically, we demonstrate that climatological and serological factors can act synergistically to yield greater projected case numbers than would be expected from the presence of a single driver alone. Altogether, this work provides a holistic framework for teasing apart and analysing the various complex drivers of vector-borne disease outbreak dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Wagner CE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7328388 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.

Wagner Caroline E CE Hooshyar Milad M Baker Rachel E RE Yang Wenchang W Arinaminpathy Nimalan N Vecchi Gabriel G Metcalf C Jessica E CJE Porporato Amilcare A Grenfell Bryan T BT

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20200603 167

The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framewo ...[more]

PMID: 32486949

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Project description:BackgroundSpatial and temporal changes in the dengue incidence are associated with multiple factors, such as climate, immunity among a population against dengue viruses (DENV), circulating DENV serotypes and vertical transmission (VT) of DENV in an area at a given time. The level of VT in a specific location has epidemiological implications in terms of viral maintenance in vectors. Identification of the circulating DENV serotypes in both patients and Aedes mosquito larvae in an area may be useful for the early detection of outbreaks. We report here the results of a prospective descriptive study that was conducted to detect the levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae and circulating DENV serotypes in patients and Aedes mosquito larvae from December 2015 to March 2017 in an area of Sri Lanka at high risk for dengue.MethodsA total of 200 patients with clinically suspected dengue who had been admitted to a tertiary care hospital during a dengue outbreak (3 study periods: December 2015-January 2016, June-August 2016, December 2016-January 2017) and in the inter-outbreak periods (February-May 2016 and September-November 2016) were investigated. Blood samples were drawn from the study participants to test for DENV. The houses of the study participants were visited within 7 days of admission to the hospital, and Aedes larvae were also collected within a radius of 400 m from the houses. The larvae were separately identified to species and then pooled according to each patient's identification number. Patients' sera and the Aedes larvae were tested to identify the infecting DENV serotypes using a reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) method. Levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae were also identified.ResultsAll four DENV serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) were identified in the study area. In the early part of the study (December 2015-February 2016), DENV-3 was predominant and from April 2016 to March 2017, DENV-2 became the most predominant type. Four cases of DENV co-infections were noted during the study period in patients. Interestingly, all four DENV serotypes were detected in Aedes albopictus larvae, which was the prominent immature vectorial form identified throughout the study period in the area, showing 9.8% VT of DENV. With the exception of DENV-4, the other three DENV serotypes were identified in Aedes aegypti larvae with a VT of 8.1%.ConclusionComparatively high rates of VT of DENV was detected in Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti larvae. A shift in the predominant DENV serotype with simultaneous circulation of all four DENV serotypes was identified in the study area from December 2015 to March 2017.

Dataset Information

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.

Publications

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.

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