Dataset Information

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT:

Background

More than 80,000 dengue cases including 215 deaths were reported nationally in less than 7 months between 2016 and 2017, a fourfold increase in the number of reported cases compared to the average number over 2010-2016. The region of Negombo, located in the Western province, experienced the greatest number of dengue cases in the country and is the focus area of our study, where we aim to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue transmission.

Methods

We present a statistical modeling framework to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2016-2017 dengue outbreak in the Negombo region of Sri Lanka as a function of human mobility, land-use, and climate patterns. The analysis was conducted at a 1?km?×?1?km spatial resolution and a weekly temporal resolution.

Results

Our results indicate human mobility to be a stronger indicator for local outbreak clusters than land-use or climate variables. The minimum daily temperature was identified as the most influential climate variable on dengue cases in the region; while among the set of land-use patterns considered, urban areas were found to be most prone to dengue outbreak, followed by areas with stagnant water and then coastal areas. The results are shown to be robust across spatial resolutions.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the potential value of using travel data to target vector control within a region. In addition to illustrating the relative relationship between various potential risk factors for dengue outbreaks, the results of our study can be used to inform where and when new cases of dengue are likely to occur within a region, and thus help more effectively and innovatively, plan for disease surveillance and vector control.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7469426 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka.

Zhang Ying Y Riera Jefferson J Ostrow Kayla K Siddiqui Sauleh S de Silva Harendra H Sarkar Sahotra S Fernando Lakkumar L Gardner Lauren L

BMC infectious diseases 20200903 1

<h4>Background</h4>More than 80,000 dengue cases including 215 deaths were reported nationally in less than 7 months between 2016 and 2017, a fourfold increase in the number of reported cases compared to the average number over 2010-2016. The region of Negombo, located in the Western province, experienced the greatest number of dengue cases in the country and is the focus area of our study, where we aim to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue transmission.<h4>Methods</h4>We present a ...[more]

PMID: 32883213

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Project description:BackgroundDengue is a frequent cause of acute febrile illness with an expanding global distribution. Since the 1960s, dengue in Sri Lanka has been documented primarily along the heavily urbanized western coast with periodic shifting of serotypes. Outbreaks from 2005-2008 were attributed to a new clade of DENV-3 and more recently to a newly introduced genotype of DENV-1. In 2007, we conducted etiologic surveillance of acute febrile illness in the Southern Province and confirmed dengue in only 6.3% of febrile patients, with no cases of DENV-1 identified. To re-evaluate the importance of dengue as an etiology of acute febrile illness in this region, we renewed fever surveillance in the Southern Province to newly identify and characterize dengue.Methodology/principal findingsA cross-sectional surveillance study was conducted at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province from 2012-2013. A total of 976 patients hospitalized with acute undifferentiated fever were enrolled, with 64.3% male and 31.4% children. Convalescent blood samples were collected from 877 (89.6%). Dengue virus isolation, dengue RT-PCR, and paired IgG ELISA were performed. Acute dengue was confirmed as the etiology for 388 (39.8%) of 976 hospitalizations, with most cases (291, 75.0%) confirmed virologically and by multiple methods. Among 351 cases of virologically confirmed dengue, 320 (91.2%) were due to DENV-1. Acute dengue was associated with self-reported rural residence, travel, and months having greatest rainfall. Sequencing of selected dengue viruses revealed that sequences were most closely related to those described from China and Southeast Asia, not nearby India.Conclusions/significanceWe describe the first epidemic of DENV-1 in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka in a population known to be susceptible to this serotype because of prior study. Dengue accounted for 40% of acute febrile illnesses in the current study. The emergence of DENV-1 as the foremost serotype in this densely populated but agrarian population highlights the changing epidemiology of dengue and the need for continued surveillance and prevention.

Project description:BackgroundSpatial and temporal changes in the dengue incidence are associated with multiple factors, such as climate, immunity among a population against dengue viruses (DENV), circulating DENV serotypes and vertical transmission (VT) of DENV in an area at a given time. The level of VT in a specific location has epidemiological implications in terms of viral maintenance in vectors. Identification of the circulating DENV serotypes in both patients and Aedes mosquito larvae in an area may be useful for the early detection of outbreaks. We report here the results of a prospective descriptive study that was conducted to detect the levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae and circulating DENV serotypes in patients and Aedes mosquito larvae from December 2015 to March 2017 in an area of Sri Lanka at high risk for dengue.MethodsA total of 200 patients with clinically suspected dengue who had been admitted to a tertiary care hospital during a dengue outbreak (3 study periods: December 2015-January 2016, June-August 2016, December 2016-January 2017) and in the inter-outbreak periods (February-May 2016 and September-November 2016) were investigated. Blood samples were drawn from the study participants to test for DENV. The houses of the study participants were visited within 7 days of admission to the hospital, and Aedes larvae were also collected within a radius of 400 m from the houses. The larvae were separately identified to species and then pooled according to each patient's identification number. Patients' sera and the Aedes larvae were tested to identify the infecting DENV serotypes using a reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) method. Levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae were also identified.ResultsAll four DENV serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) were identified in the study area. In the early part of the study (December 2015-February 2016), DENV-3 was predominant and from April 2016 to March 2017, DENV-2 became the most predominant type. Four cases of DENV co-infections were noted during the study period in patients. Interestingly, all four DENV serotypes were detected in Aedes albopictus larvae, which was the prominent immature vectorial form identified throughout the study period in the area, showing 9.8% VT of DENV. With the exception of DENV-4, the other three DENV serotypes were identified in Aedes aegypti larvae with a VT of 8.1%.ConclusionComparatively high rates of VT of DENV was detected in Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti larvae. A shift in the predominant DENV serotype with simultaneous circulation of all four DENV serotypes was identified in the study area from December 2015 to March 2017.

Dataset Information

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka.

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