Dataset Information

Applying the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

It remains unknown whether catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces future acute coronary syndrome (ACS) risk or whether the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score has a role in predicting this risk. We aimed to compare very long-term risk of ACS between patients who received catheter ablation to AF or antiarrhythmic medications and controls without AF.

Methods

Propensity scores were calculated for each patient and used to assemble a cohort of 787 patients undergoing AF ablation in 2003-2012. Patients were compared to an equal number of AF patients treated with antiarrhythmic medications and a control group without AF. Patients with previous coronary events were excluded. The primary endpoint was ACS occurrence.

Results

Baseline clinical characteristics were comparable. After a mean 9.1 ± 3.2-year follow-up, the ablation group had lower incidence of new onset ACS than the medication and non-AF control groups (annual incidence: 0.15%. 0.78%, and 0.35%; with 2.67, 4.16, and 10.44 cases/1000 person-years, respectively; P < 0.001). After adjusting for multiple confounders, the ablation group had lower future ACS risk than the medication (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.30) and control groups (HR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.20-0.45). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was a strong predictor of ACS (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.47-1.76; AUC: 85.9%, 95% CI: 78.5-93.2%). A baseline CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 4 predicted future ACS (positive predictive rate: 14.3%).

Conclusions

This study suggested that catheter ablation for AF may be beneficial to reduce future ACS risk in AF patients, and a high baseline CHA₂DS₂-VASc score can predict future acute coronary events.

SUBMITTER: Chou CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7330062 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Applying the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

Chou Ching-Yao CY Chen Yun-Yu YY Lin Yenn-Jiang YJ Chien Kuo-Liong KL Chang Shih-Lin SL Tuan Ta-Chuan TC Lo Li-Wei LW Chao Tze-Fan TF Hu Yu-Feng YF Chung Fa-Po FP Liao Jo-Nan JN Lin Chin-Yu CY Chang Ting-Yung TY Chen Shih-Ann SA

International journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature 20200628

<h4>Objective</h4>It remains unknown whether catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces future acute coronary syndrome (ACS) risk or whether the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score has a role in predicting this risk. We aimed to compare very long-term risk of ACS between patients who received catheter ablation to AF or antiarrhythmic medications and controls without AF.<h4>Methods</h4>Propensity scores were calculated for each patient and used to assemble a cohort of 787 patient ...[more]

PMID: 32637569

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Project description:Background and Purpose- Despite modest predictive ability for ischemic stroke (IS), the CHA2DS2-VASc score is widely used for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, we aimed to (1) compare the IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) incidence by CHA2DS2-VASc in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; (2) compare predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for IS or TIA in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; and (3) determine improvement in predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score from addition of race/ethnicity. Methods- Using data from Optum Clinformatics, a large administrative claims database, we analyzed patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans from 2009 to 2015. We computed IS or TIA incidence rates, improvement in C statistic, continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement from addition of race/ethnicity to CHA2DS2-VASc. Results- A total of 267 419 patients (mean age, 73.1 [SD, 12.3] years; 46.6% women; 84.2% white, 8.5% black, 7.3% Hispanic) were studied. After a mean follow-up of 22 months, there were 6202 IS or TIA events. IS or TIA incidence rates were higher in blacks than Hispanics or whites (1.65, 1.40, and 1.22 cases per 100 person-years, respectively) and increased with higher CHA2DS2-VASc, with no race/ethnicity-based differences (P for interaction=0.17). The CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VASc+race/ethnicity C statistic (95% CI) were 0.679 (0.670-0.686) and 0.679 (0.671-0.688). The CHA2DS2-VASc C statistic in the 3 groups were comparable. With addition of race/ethnicity, the categorical net reclassification improvement, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement were -0.045 (95% CI, -0.067 to -0.025), 0.045 (95% CI, 0.025-0.068), and 0.016 (95% CI, 0.014-0.018). Conclusions- The predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc for IS or TIA in atrial fibrillation is comparable among whites, blacks, and Hispanics; hence, it can be used in the latter 2 groups. Addition of race/ethnicity to the CHA2DS2-VASc does not improve its predictive ability.

Project description:BackgroundIn people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke.MethodsWe included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement.ResultsAbnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The β estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively.ConclusionsAbnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

Project description:BackgroundContemporary data have shown a decrease in the ischaemic stroke risk associated with female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated temporal trends in the predictive value of a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score (ie. CHA2DS2-VA).MethodsThe FinACAF study covers all patients with incident AF between 2007 and 2018 in Finland from all levels of care. The CHA2DS2-VA score was compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc using continuous and category-based net reclassification indices (NRIs), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), c-statistics and decision curve analyses.FindingsWe identified 144,879 anticoagulant naïve patients with new-onset AF between 2007 and 2018 (49.9% women; mean age 72.1 years), of whom 3936 (2.7%) experienced ischaemic stroke during one-year follow-up. Based on both continuous and category-based NRIs, the CHA2DS2-VA score was inferior to the CHA2DS2-VASc in the early years (-0.333 (95% CI -0.411 to -0.261) and -0.118 (95% CI -0.137 to -0.099), respectively). However, the differences attenuated over time, and by the end of the study period, the continuous NRI became non-significant (-0.093 (95% CI -0.165 to 0.032)), whereas the category-based NRI reversed in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA (0.070 (95% CI 0.048-0.087)). The IDI was non-significant in early years (0.0009 (95% CI -0.0024 to 0.0037)), but over time became statistically significant in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA score (0.0022 (95% CI 0.0001-0.0044)). The Cox models fitted with the CHA2DS2-VA and the CHA2DS2-VASc scores exhibited comparable discriminative capability in the beginning of the study (p-value 0.63), but over time marginal differences in favor of the CHA2DS2-VA score emerged (p-value 0.0002).InterpretationIn 2007-2008 (when females had higher AF-related stroke risks than males), the CHA2DS2-VASc score outperformed the CHA2DS2-VA score, but the initial differences between the scores attenuated over time. By the end of the study period in 2017-2018 (with limited/no sex differences in AF-related stroke), there was marginal superiority for the CHA2DS2-VA score.FundingThis work was supported by the Aarne Koskelo Foundation, The Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, The Finnish State Research funding, and Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District research fund.

Project description:BackgroundThe ABC-stroke score (age, biomarkers [N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin], and clinical history [prior stroke/transient ischemic attack]) was proposed to predict stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF). This score was derived/validated in 2 clinical trial cohorts in which patients with AF were highly selected and carefully followed-up. However, the median follow-up was 1.9 years in the trial cohort; therefore, its long-term predictive performance remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the long-term predictive performances of the ABC-stroke and CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]-vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) scores in a cohort of anticoagulated patients with AF.Methods and resultsWe recruited 1125 consecutive patients with AF who were stable on vitamin K antagonists and followed-up for a median of 6.5 years. ABC-stroke and CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]-vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) scores were calculated and compared. Median CHA2DS2-VASc and ABC-stroke scores were 4 (interquartile range 3-5) and 9.1 (interquartile range 7.3-11.3), respectively. There were 114 ischemic strokes (1.55% per year) at 6.5 years. The C-index of ABC-stroke at 3.5 years was significantly higher than CHA2DS2-VASc (0.663 versus 0.600, P=0.046), but both C-indexes were nonsignificantly different at 6.5 years. Integrated discrimination improvement showed a small improvement (<2%) in sensitivity at 3.5 and 6.5 years with ABC-stroke. For ABC-stroke, net reclassification improvement was nonsignificantly different at 3.5 years, and showed a negative reclassification at 6.5 years compared with CHA2DS2-VASc. Decision curve analyses did not show a marked improvement in clinical usefulness of the ABC-stroke score over the CHA2DS2-VASc score.ConclusionsIn anticoagulated patients with AF followed-up over a long-term period, the novel ABC-stroke score does not offer significantly better predictive performance compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Dataset Information

Applying the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Applying the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets

Dataset Information

Applying the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Applying the CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets

Applying the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to predict the risk of future acute coronary syndrome in patients receiving catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.