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Preventing COVID-19 Transmission on Labor and Delivery: A Decision Analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The health care system has been struggling to find the optimal way to protect patients and staff from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our objective was to evaluate the impact of two strategies on transmission of COVID-19 to health care workers (HCW) on labor and delivery (L&D). STUDY DESIGN:We developed a decision analytic model comparing universal COVID-19 screening and universal PPE on L&D. Probabilities and costs were derived from the literature. We used individual models to evaluate different scenarios including spontaneous labor, induced labor, and planned cesarean delivery (CD). The primary outcome was the cost to prevent COVID-19 infection in one HCW. A cost-effectiveness threshold was set at $25,000 to prevent a single infection in an HCW. RESULTS:In the base case using a COVID-19 prevalence of 0.36% (the rate in the United States at the time), universal screening is the preferred strategy because while universal PPE is more effective at preventing COVID-19 transmission, it is also more costly, costing $4,175,229 and $3,413,251 to prevent one infection in the setting of spontaneous and induced labor, respectively. For planned CD, universal PPE is cost saving. The model is sensitive to variations in the prevalence of COVID-19 and the cost of PPE. Universal PPE becomes cost-effective at a COVID-19 prevalence of 34.3 and 29.5% and at a PPE cost of $512.62 and $463.20 for spontaneous and induced labor, respectively. At a higher cost-effectiveness threshold, the prevalence of COVID-19 can be lower for universal PPE to become cost-effective. CONCLUSION:Universal COVID-19 screening is generally the preferred option. However, in locations with high COVID-19 prevalence or where the local societal cost of one HCW being unavailable is the highest such as in rural areas, universal PPE may be cost-effective and preferred. This model may help to provide guidance regarding allocation of resources on L&D during these current and future pandemics. KEY POINTS:· Universal screening is the preferred strategy for labor.. · With high prevalence, universal PPE is cost-effective.. · For planned cesarean, universal PPE is cost saving..

SUBMITTER: Savitsky LM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7416191 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Preventing COVID-19 Transmission on Labor and Delivery: A Decision Analysis.

Savitsky Leah M LM Albright Catherine M CM

American journal of perinatology 20200616 10

<h4>Objective</h4>The health care system has been struggling to find the optimal way to protect patients and staff from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our objective was to evaluate the impact of two strategies on transmission of COVID-19 to health care workers (HCW) on labor and delivery (L&D).<h4>Study design</h4>We developed a decision analytic model comparing universal COVID-19 screening and universal PPE on L&D. Probabilities and costs were derived from the literature. We used individu ...[more]

PMID: 32544961

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have indicated that the risk of infectious disease spread is greatest in locations where a population has massive and convenient access to the epicenter of an outbreak. However, the spatiotemporal variations and risk determinants of COVID-19 in typical labor export regions of China remain unclear. Understanding the geographical distribution of the disease and the socio-economic factors affecting its transmission is critical for disease prevention and control.MethodsA total of 2152 COVID-19 cases were reported from January 21 to February 24, 2020 across the 34 cities in Henan and Anhui. A Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchy model was used to detect the spatiotemporal variations of the risk posed by COVID-19, and the GeoDetector q statistic was used to evaluate the determinant power of the potential influence factors.ResultsThe risk posed by COVID-19 showed geographical spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, there was an outbreak period and control period. Spatially, there were high-risk regions and low-risk regions. The high-risk regions were mainly in the southwest areas adjacent to Hubei and cities that served as economic and traffic hubs, while the low-risk regions were mainly in western Henan and eastern Anhui, far away from the epicenter. The accessibility, local economic conditions, and medical infrastructure of Wuhan in Hubei province all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission. The results indicated that the q statistics of the per capita GDP and the proportion of primary industry GDP were 0.47 and 0.47, respectively. The q statistic of the population flow from Wuhan was 0.33. In particular, the results showed that the q statistics for the interaction effects between population density and urbanization, population flow from Wuhan, per capita GDP, and the number of doctors were all greater than 0.8.ConclusionsCOVID-19 showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the labor export regions of China. The high-risk regions were mainly located in areas adjacent to the epicenter as well as in big cities that served as traffic hubs. Population access to the epicenter, as well as local economic and medical conditions, played an important role in the interactive effects of the disease transmission.

Project description:ObjectiveAntenatal corticosteroids given prior to preterm deliveries reduce the risk of adverse neonatal outcomes. However, steroid administration in the setting of a viral respiratory infection can worsen maternal outcomes. Therefore, the decision to administer corticosteroids must balance the neonatal benefits with the potential harm to the mother if she is infected with the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to determine the gestational ages for which administering antenatal corticosteroids to women at high risk of preterm labor with concurrent COVID-19 infection results in improved combined maternal and infant outcomes.Study designA decision-analytic model using TreeAge (2020) software was constructed for a theoretical cohort of hospitalized women with COVID-19 in the United States. All model inputs were derived from the literature. Outcomes included maternal intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death, along with infant outcomes of death, respiratory distress syndrome, intraventricular hemorrhage, and neurodevelopmental delay. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed from the maternal and infant perspectives. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine if the results were robust over a range of assumptions.ResultsIn our theoretical cohort of 10,000 women delivering between 24 and 33 weeks of gestation with COVID-19, corticosteroid administration resulted in 2,200 women admitted to the ICU and 110 maternal deaths. No antenatal corticosteroid use resulted in 1,500 ICU admissions and 75 maternal deaths. Overall, we found that corticosteroid administration resulted in higher combined QALYs up to 31 weeks of gestation in all hospitalized patients, and up to 29 weeks of gestation in ICU patients.ConclusionAdministration of antenatal corticosteroids at less than 32 weeks of gestation for hospitalized patients and less than 30 weeks of gestation for patients admitted to the ICU resulted in higher combined maternal and infant outcomes compared with expectant management for women at high risk of preterm birth with COVID-19 infection. These results can guide clinicians in their counseling and management of these pregnant women.Key points· Antenatal steroids reduce adverse neonatal outcomes.. · Steroids worsen maternal outcomes in COVID-19.. · Steroids given < 32 weeks result in improved outcomes..

Project description:BackgroundPregnant individuals are vulnerable to COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome. There is a lack of high-quality evidence on whether elective delivery or expectant management leads to better maternal and neonatal outcomes.ObjectiveThis study aimed to determine whether elective delivery or expectant management are associated with higher quality-adjusted life expectancy for pregnant individuals with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome and their neonates.Study designWe performed a clinical decision analysis using a patient-level model in which we simulatedpregnant individuals and their unborn children. We used a patient-level model with parallel open-cohort structure, daily cycle length, continuous discounting, lifetime horizon, sensitivity analyses for key parameter values, and 1000 iterations for quantification of uncertainty. We simulated pregnant individuals at 32 weeks of gestation, invasively ventilated because of COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome. In the elective delivery strategy, pregnant individuals received immediate cesarean delivery. In the expectant management strategy, pregnancies continued until spontaneous labor or obstetrical decision to deliver. For both pregnant individuals and neonates, model outputs were hospital or perinatal survival, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy denominated in years, summarized by the mean and 95% credible interval. Maternal utilities incorporated neonatal outcomes in accordance with best practices in perinatal decision analysis.ResultsModel outputs for pregnant individuals were similar when comparing elective delivery at 32 weeks' gestation with expectant management, including hospital survival (87.1% vs 87.4%), life-years (difference, -0.1; 95% credible interval, -1.4 to 1.1), and quality-adjusted life expectancy denominated in years (difference, -0.1; 95% credible interval, -1.3 to 1.1). For neonates, elective delivery at 32 weeks' gestation was estimated to lead to a higher perinatal survival (98.4% vs 93.2%; difference, 5.2%; 95% credible interval, 3.5-7), similar life-years (difference, 0.9; 95% credible interval, -0.9 to 2.8), and higher quality-adjusted life expectancy denominated in years (difference, 1.3; 95% credible interval, 0.4-2.2). For pregnant individuals, elective delivery was not superior to expectant management across a range of scenarios between 28 and 34 weeks of gestation. Elective delivery in cases where intrauterine death or maternal mortality were more likely resulted in higher neonatal quality-adjusted life expectancy, as did elective delivery at 30 weeks' gestation (difference, 1.1 years; 95% credible interval, 0.1 - 2.1) despite higher long-term complications (4.3% vs 0.5%; difference, 3.7%; 95% credible interval, 2.4-5.1), and in cases where intrauterine death or maternal acute respiratory distress syndrome mortality were more likely.ConclusionThe decision to pursue elective delivery vs expectant management in pregnant individuals with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome should be guided by gestational age, risk of intrauterine death, and maternal acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. For the pregnant individual, elective delivery is comparable but not superior to expectant management for gestational ages from 28 to 34 weeks. For neonates, elective delivery was superior if gestational age was ≥30 weeks and if the rate of intrauterine death or maternal mortality risk were high. We recommend basing the decision for elective delivery vs expectant management in a pregnant individual with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome on gestational age and likelihood of intrauterine or maternal death.

Dataset Information

Preventing COVID-19 Transmission on Labor and Delivery: A Decision Analysis.

Publications

Preventing COVID-19 Transmission on Labor and Delivery: A Decision Analysis.

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