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No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.

ABSTRACT: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 originated in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus and deaths from the associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. Our aim is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and spread and lethality of COVID-19 in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support these links. In fact, despite a higher prevalence of intergenerational coresidence and contacts that is broadly positively associated with COVID-19 case fatality rates at the country level, the opposite is generally true at the subnational level. While this inconsistent evidence demonstrates neither the existence nor the absence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the severity of COVID-19, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data, which suffer from many shortcomings. We conclude by arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. Theoretically, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and "phase-2" restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.

SUBMITTER: Arpino B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7431085 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.

Arpino Bruno B Bordone Valeria V Pasqualini Marta M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200722 32

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 originated in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus and deaths from the associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationship ...[more]

PMID: 32699150

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Project description:BackgroundSocial vulnerability indices were created to measure resiliency to environmental disasters based on socioeconomic and population characteristics of discrete geographic regions. They are composed of multiple validated constructs that can also potentially identify geographically vulnerable populations after injury. Our objective was to determine if these indices correlate with injury fatality rates in the US.MethodsWe evaluated three social vulnerability indices: The Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute's Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI), the Center for Disease Control's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), and the Economic Innovation Group's Distressed Community Index (DCI). We analyzed SVI subindices and common individual census variables as indicators of socioeconomic status. Outcomes included age-adjusted county-level overall, firearm, and motor vehicle collision deaths per 100,000 population. Linear regression determined the association of injury fatality rates with the SoVI, SVI, and DCI. Bivariate choropleth mapping identified geographic variation and spatial autocorrelation of overall fatality, SoVI, and DCI.ResultsA total of 3,137 US counties were included. Only 24.6% of counties fell into the same vulnerability quintile for all three indices. Despite this, all indices were associated with increasing fatality rates for overall, firearm, and motor vehicle collision fatality. The DCI performed best by model fit, explanation of variance, and diagnostic performance on overall injury fatality. There is significant geographic variation in SoVI, DCI, and injury fatality rates at the county level across the United States, with moderate spatial autocorrelation of SoVI (Moran's I, 0.35; p < 0.01) and high autocorrelation of injury fatality rates (Moran's I, 0.77; p < 0.01) and DCI (Moran's I, 0.53; p < 0.01).ConclusionWhile the indices contribute unique information, higher social vulnerability is associated with higher injury fatality across all indices. These indices may be useful in the epidemiologic and geographic assessment of injury-related fatality rates. Further study is warranted to determine if these indices outperform traditional measures of socioeconomic status and related constructs used in trauma research.Level of evidenceEpidemiological, level IV.

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No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.

Publications

No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.

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