Dataset Information

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

ABSTRACT: Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the Phytophthora infestans infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Narouei-Khandan HA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7459445 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

Narouei-Khandan Hossein A HA Shakya Shankar K SK Garrett Karen A KA Goss Erica M EM Dufault Nicholas S NS Andrade-Piedra Jorge L JL Asseng Senthold S Wallach Daniel D Bruggen Ariena H C van AHCV

Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) 20200815 8

Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly tem ...[more]

PMID: 32824250

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Project description:BackgroundLate blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans) is a devastating potato disease that has been found to occur earlier in the season over the last decades in Fennoscandia. Up until now the reasons for this change have not been investigated. Possible explanations for this change are climate alterations, changes in potato production or changes in pathogen biology, such as increased fitness or changes in gene flow within P. infestans populations. The first incidence of late blight is of high economic importance since fungicidal applications should be typically applied two weeks before the first signs of late blight and are repeated on average once a week.MethodsWe use field observations of first incidence of late blight in experimental potato fields from five sites in Sweden and Finland covering a total of 30 years and investigate whether the earlier incidence of late blight can be related to the climate.ResultsWe linked the field data to meteorological data and found that the previous assumption, used in common late blight models, that the disease only develops at relative humidity levels above 90% had to be rejected. Rather than the typically assumed threshold relationship between late blight disease development and relative humidity we found a linear relationship. Our model furthermore showed two distinct responses of late blight to climate. At the beginning of the observation time (in Sweden until the early 90s and in Finland until the 2000s) the link between climate and first incidence was very weak. However, for the remainder of the time period the link was highly significant, indicating a change in the biological properties of the pathogen which could for example be a change in the dominating reproduction mode or a physiological change in the response of the pathogen to climate.ConclusionsThe study shows that models used in decision support systems need to be checked and re-parametrized regularly to be able to capture changes in pathogen biology. While this study was performed with data from Fennoscandia this new pathogen biology and late blight might spread to (or already be present at) other parts of the world as well. The strong link between climate and first incidence together with the presented model offers a tool to assess late blight incidence in future climates.

Dataset Information

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

Publications

BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

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