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Machine Learning Approaches for Fracture Risk Assessment: A Comparative Analysis of Genomic and Phenotypic Data in 5130 Older Men.

ABSTRACT: The study aims were to develop fracture prediction models by using machine learning approaches and genomic data, as well as to identify the best modeling approach for fracture prediction. The genomic data of Osteoporotic Fractures in Men, cohort Study (n = 5130), were analyzed. After a comprehensive genotype imputation, genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated from 1103 associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms for each participant. Data were normalized and split into a training set (80%) and a validation set (20%) for analysis. Random forest, gradient boosting, neural network, and logistic regression were used to develop prediction models for major osteoporotic fractures separately, with GRS, bone density, and other risk factors as predictors. In model training, the synthetic minority oversampling technique was used to account for low fracture rate, and tenfold cross-validation was employed for hyperparameters optimization. In the testing, the area under curve (AUC) and accuracy were used to assess the model performance. The McNemar test was employed to examine the accuracy difference between models. The results showed that the prediction performance of gradient boosting was the best, with AUC of 0.71 and an accuracy of 0.88, and the GRS ranked as the 7th most important variable in the model. The performance of random forest and neural network were also significantly better than that of logistic regression. This study suggested that improving fracture prediction in older men can be achieved by incorporating genetic profiling and by utilizing the gradient boosting approach. This result should not be extrapolated to women or young individuals.

SUBMITTER: Wu Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7492432 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Physical activity (PA) level is associated with multiple health benefits during early childhood. However, inconsistency in the methods for quantification of PA levels among preschoolers remains a problem. OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to develop PA intensity cut points for wrist-worn accelerometers by using machine learning (ML) approaches to assess PA in preschoolers. METHODS:Wrist- and hip-derived acceleration data were collected simultaneously from 34 preschoolers on 3 consecutive preschool days. Two supervised ML models, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and ordinal logistic regression (OLR), and one unsupervised ML model, k-means cluster analysis, were applied to establish wrist-worn accelerometer vector magnitude (VM) cut points to classify accelerometer counts into sedentary behavior, light PA (LPA), moderate PA (MPA), and vigorous PA (VPA). Physical activity intensity levels identified by hip-worn accelerometer VM cut points were used as reference to train the supervised ML models. Vector magnitude counts were classified by intensity based on three newly established wrist methods and the hip reference to examine classification accuracy. Daily estimates of PA were compared to the hip-reference criterion. RESULTS:In total, 3600 epochs with matched hip- and wrist-worn accelerometer VM counts were analyzed. All ML approaches performed differently on developing PA intensity cut points for wrist-worn accelerometers. Among the three ML models, k-means cluster analysis derived the following cut points: ?2556 counts per minute (cpm) for sedentary behavior, 2557-7064 cpm for LPA, 7065-14532 cpm for MPA, and ?14533 cpm for VPA; in addition, k-means cluster analysis had the highest classification accuracy, with more than 70% of the total epochs being classified into the correct PA categories, as examined by the hip reference. Additionally, k-means cut points exhibited the most accurate estimates on sedentary behavior, LPA, and VPA as the hip reference. None of the three wrist methods were able to accurately assess MPA. CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrates the potential of ML approaches in establishing cut points for wrist-worn accelerometers to assess PA in preschoolers. However, the findings from this study warrant additional validation studies.

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Machine Learning Approaches for Fracture Risk Assessment: A Comparative Analysis of Genomic and Phenotypic Data in 5130 Older Men.

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