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Social network analysis methods for exploring SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing data.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Contact tracing data of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is used to estimate basic epidemiological parameters. Contact tracing data could also be potentially used for assessing the heterogeneity of transmission at the individual patient level. Characterization of individuals based on different levels of infectiousness could better inform the contact tracing interventions at field levels. METHODS:Standard social network analysis methods used for exploring infectious disease transmission dynamics was employed to analyze contact tracing data of 1959 diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 patients from a large state of India. Relational network data set with diagnosed patients as "nodes" and their epidemiological contact as "edges" was created. Directed network perspective was utilized in which directionality of infection emanated from a "source patient" towards a "target patient". Network measures of " degree centrality" and "betweenness centrality" were calculated to identify influential patients in the transmission of infection. Components analysis was conducted to identify patients connected as sub- groups. Descriptive statistics was used to summarise network measures and percentile ranks were used to categorize influencers. RESULTS:Out-degree centrality measures identified that of the total 1959 patients, 11.27% (221) patients have acted as a source of infection to 40.19% (787) other patients. Among these source patients, 0.65% (12) patients had a higher out-degree centrality (>?=?10) and have collectively infected 37.61% (296 of 787), secondary patients. Betweenness centrality measures highlighted that 7.50% (93) patients had a non-zero betweenness (range 0.5 to 135) and thus have bridged the transmission between other patients. Network component analysis identified nineteen connected components comprising of influential patient's which have overall accounted for 26.95% of total patients (1959) and 68.74% of epidemiological contacts in the network. CONCLUSIONS:Social network analysis method for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing data would be of use in measuring individual patient level variations in disease transmission. The network metrics identified individual patients and patient components who have disproportionately contributed to transmission. The network measures and graphical tools could complement the existing contact tracing indicators and could help improve the contact tracing activities.

SUBMITTER: Nagarajan K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7494745 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Social network analysis methods for exploring SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing data.

Nagarajan Karikalan K Muniyandi Malaisamy M Palani Bharathidasan B Sellappan Senthil S

BMC medical research methodology 20200917 1

<h4>Background</h4>Contact tracing data of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is used to estimate basic epidemiological parameters. Contact tracing data could also be potentially used for assessing the heterogeneity of transmission at the individual patient level. Characterization of individuals based on different levels of infectiousness could better inform the contact tracing interventions at field levels.<h4>Methods</h4>Standard social network analysis metho ...[more]

PMID: 32942988

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Project description:BackgroundIndividuals with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can propagate the virus unknowingly and thus have been a focus of public health attentions since the early stages of the pandemic. Understanding viral transmissibility among asymptomatic individuals is critical for successful control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study aimed to understand SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility among young asymptomatic individuals and to assess whether symptomatology was associated with transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections.MethodsWe analyzed one of the first-identified clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infections with multiple chains of transmission that occurred among university students in March 2020 in Kyoto prefecture, Japan, using discrete and two-type branching process models. Assuming that the number of secondary cases resulting from either primary symptomatic or asymptomatic cases independently followed negative binomial distributions, we estimated the relative reproduction numbers of an asymptomatic case compared with a symptomatic case. To explore the potential association between symptomatology and transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic incident infections, we also estimated the proportion of secondary symptomatic cases produced by primary symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.ResultsThe reproduction number for a symptomatic primary case was estimated at 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-2.09). The relative reproduction number for asymptomatic cases was estimated at 0.19 (95% CI: 0.03-0.66), indicating that asymptomatic primary cases did not result in sufficient numbers of secondary infections to maintain chains of transmission. There was no apparent tendency for symptomatic primary cases to preferentially produce symptomatic secondary cases.ConclusionsUsing data from a transmission network during the early epidemic in Japan, we successfully estimated the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection at 0.22. These results suggest that contract tracing focusing on symptomatic index cases may be justified given limited testing capacity.

Project description:ObjectiveTo systematically review evidence on effectiveness of contact tracing apps (CTAs) for SARS-CoV-2 on epidemiological and clinical outcomes.DesignRapid systematic review.Data sourcesEMBASE (OVID), MEDLINE (PubMed), BioRxiv and MedRxiv were searched up to 28 October 2020.Study selectionStudies, both empirical and model-based, assessing effect of CTAs for SARS-CoV-2 on reproduction number (R), total number of infections, hospitalisation rate, mortality rate, and other epidemiologically and clinically relevant outcomes, were eligible for inclusion.Data extractionEmpirical and model-based studies were critically appraised using separate checklists. Data on type of study (ie, empirical or model-based), sample size, (simulated) time horizon, study population, CTA type (and associated interventions), comparator and outcomes assessed, were extracted. The most important findings were extracted and narratively summarised. Specifically for model-based studies, characteristics and values of important model parameters were collected.Results2140 studies were identified, of which 17 studies (2 empirical, 15 model-based studies) were eligible and included in this review. Both empirical studies were observational (non-randomised) studies and at high risk of bias, most importantly due to risk of confounding. Risk of bias of model-based studies was considered low for 12 out of 15 studies. Most studies demonstrated beneficial effects of CTAs on R, total number of infections and mortality rate. No studies assessed effect on hospitalisation. Effect size was dependent on model parameters values used, but in general, a beneficial effect was observed at CTA adoption rates of 20% or higher.ConclusionsCTAs have the potential to be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 related epidemiological and clinical outcomes, though effect size depends on other model parameters (eg, proportion of asymptomatic individuals, or testing delays), and interventions after CTA notification. Methodologically sound comparative empirical studies on effectiveness of CTAs are required to confirm findings from model-based studies.

Project description:Understanding the relationship between individuals' social networks and health could help devise public health interventions for reducing incidence of unhealthy behaviors or increasing prevalence of healthy ones. In this context, we explore the co-evolution of individuals' social network positions and physical activities. We are able to do so because the NetHealth study at the University of Notre Dame has generated both high-resolution longitudinal social network (e.g., SMS) data and high-resolution longitudinal health-related behavioral (e.g., Fitbit physical activity) data. We examine trait differences between (i) users whose social network positions (i.e., centralities) change over time versus those whose centralities remain stable, (ii) users whose Fitbit physical activities change over time versus those whose physical activities remain stable, and (iii) users whose centralities and their physical activities co-evolve, i.e., correlate with each other over time. We find that centralities of a majority of all nodes change with time. These users do not show any trait difference compared to time-stable users. However, if out of all users whose centralities change with time we focus on those whose physical activities also change with time, then the resulting users are more likely to be introverted than time-stable users. Moreover, users whose centralities and physical activities both change with time and whose evolving centralities are significantly correlated (i.e., co-evolve) with evolving physical activities are more likely to be introverted as well as anxious compared to those users who are time-stable and do not have a co-evolution relationship. Our network analysis framework reveals several links between individuals' social network structure, health-related behaviors, and the other (e.g., personality) traits. In the future, our study could lead to development of a predictive model of social network structure from behavioral/trait information and vice versa.

Project description:ImportanceDigital contact tracing (DCT) apps have been released in several countries to help interrupt SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains. However, the effect of DCT on pandemic mitigation remains to be demonstrated.ObjectiveTo estimate key populations and performance indicators along the exposure notification cascade of the SwissCovid DCT app in a clearly defined regional and temporal context.Design, setting, and participantsThis comparative effectiveness study was based on a simulation informed by measured data from issued quarantine recommendations and positive SARS-CoV-2 test results after DCT exposure notifications in the canton of Zurich. A stochastic model was developed to re-create the DCT notification cascade for Zurich. Population sizes at each cascade step were estimated using triangulation based on publicly available administrative and observational research data for the study duration from September 1 to October 31, 2020. The resultant estimates were checked for internal consistency and consistency with upstream or downstream estimates in the cascade. Stochastic sampling from data-informed parameter distributions was performed to explore the robustness of results. Subsequently, key performance indicators were evaluated to assess the potential contribution of DCT compared with manual contact tracing.Main outcomes and measuresReceiving a voluntary quarantine recommendation and/or a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result after exposure notification.ResultsIn September 2020, 537 app users received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result in Zurich, 324 of whom received and entered an upload authorization code. This code triggered an app notification for an estimated 1374 (95% simulation interval [SI], 932-2586) proximity contacts and led to 722 information hotline calls, with an estimated 170 callers (95% SI, 154-186) receiving a quarantine recommendation. An estimated 939 (95% SI, 720-1127) notified app users underwent testing for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 30 (95% SI, 23-36) had positive results after an app notification. Key indicator evaluations revealed that the DCT app triggered quarantine recommendations for the equivalent of 5% of all exposed contacts placed in quarantine by manual contact tracing. For every 10.9 (95% SI, 7.6-15.6) upload authorization codes entered in the app, 1 contact had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 after app notification. Longitudinal indicator analyses demonstrated bottlenecks in the notification cascade, because capacity limits were reached owing to an increased incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in October 2020.Conclusions and relevanceIn this simulation study of the notification cascade of the SwissCovid DCT app, receipt of exposure notifications was associated with quarantine recommendations and identification of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. These findings in notified proximity contacts reflect important intermediary steps toward transmission prevention.

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Social network analysis methods for exploring SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing data.

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Social network analysis methods for exploring SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing data.

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