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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. METHODS:From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Southeastern Asia; and sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. RESULTS:At a 10% COVID-19 prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Southeastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to an infection prevalence of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a 50% prevalence of COVID-19 infections under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in Southeastern Asia, and by 1 to 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the COVID-19 infection prevalence rate remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. INTERPRETATION:In regions with relatively high life expectancy, if the infection prevalence threshold exceeds 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy, resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations, would set a country back on its path of human development.

SUBMITTER: Marois G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7498023 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

Marois Guillaume G Muttarak Raya R Scherbov Sergei S

PloS one 20200917 9

<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy.<h4>Methods</h4>From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a disc ...[more]

PMID: 32941467

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Project description:Background and objectiveTo date, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy for the Asian American (AA) population has been reported in aggregate. This study provides estimates of life expectancy at birth before and during the pandemic, with a set of demographic, health, and socioeconomic risk factors for the four largest subgroups: Asian Indians, Chinese, Filipinos, and Vietnamese. These estimates are placed in context of the broader U.S. population.MethodsThis study uses age-specific all-cause mortality from CDC WONDER and population counts from the American Community Surveys. We apply methodologies to address variability in population sizes over time (smoothing) and data quality issues at older ages (Brass relational model life table system) to produce three sets of sex-specific life expectancy estimates by subgroup for 2019, 2020, and 2021.ResultsAlmost all estimates show that the four AA subgroups experienced greater losses between 2019 and 2020 than Whites. These losses ranged from 1.1 to 3.9 years, with the largest drops among Chinese women (2.0-2.4) and Filipino men (3.5-3.9). Under all scenarios, losses in life expectancy were considerably smaller in 2021 than in 2020 among the four subgroups - with several subgroups experiencing a modest rebound - but these improvements did not compensate for the large increases in death rates in 2020. Filipino men had the largest decline in life expectancy from 2019 to 2021 among the four subgroups (3.4-4.2 years), and Vietnamese men and women experienced large losses which continued into the second year of the pandemic.ConclusionsDespite high pre-pandemic life expectancies, AAs suffered a large, and rarely acknowledged, increase in mortality during the pandemic, with substantial heterogeneity across subgroups and between women and men. This variability is due in part to the pronounced differences in risk factors for infection and severity which have been documented within the AA population.

Project description:BackgroundDenmark was one of the few countries that experienced an increase in life expectancy in 2020, and one of the few to see a decrease in 2021. Because COVID-19 mortality is associated with socioeconomic status (SES), we hypothesize that certain subgroups of the Danish population experienced changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 that differed from the country overall. We aim to quantify life expectancy in Denmark in 2020 and 2021 by SES and compare this to recent trends in life expectancy (2014-2019).MethodsWe used Danish registry data from 2014 to 2021 for all individuals aged 30+. We classified the study population into SES groups using income quartiles and calculated life expectancy at age 30 by year, sex, and SES, and the differences in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021. We compared these changes to the average 1-year changes from 2014 to 2019 with 95% confidence intervals. Lastly, we decomposed these changes by age and cause of death distinguishing seven causes, including COVID-19, and a residual category.ResultsWe observed a mortality gradient in life expectancy changes across SES groups in both pandemic years. Among women, those of higher SES experienced a larger increase in life expectancy in 2020 and a smaller decrease in 2021 compared to those of lower SES. Among men, those of higher SES experienced an increase in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, while those of lower SES experienced a decrease in 2021. The impact of COVID-19 mortality on changes in life expectancy in 2020 was counterbalanced by improvements in non-COVID-19 mortality, especially driven by cancer and cardiovascular mortality. However, in 2021, non-COVID-19 mortality contributed negatively even for causes as cardiovascular mortality that has generally a positive impact on life expectancy changes, resulting in declines for most SES groups.ConclusionsCOVID-19 mortality disproportionally affected those of lower SES and exacerbated existing social inequalities in Denmark. We conclude that in health emergencies, particular attention should be paid to those who are least socially advantaged to avoid widening the already existing mortality gap with those of higher SES. This research contributes to the discussion on social inequalities in mortality in high-income countries.

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

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