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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. METHODS:From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Southeastern Asia; and sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. RESULTS:At a 10% COVID-19 prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Southeastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to an infection prevalence of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a 50% prevalence of COVID-19 infections under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in Southeastern Asia, and by 1 to 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the COVID-19 infection prevalence rate remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. INTERPRETATION:In regions with relatively high life expectancy, if the infection prevalence threshold exceeds 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy, resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations, would set a country back on its path of human development.

SUBMITTER: Marois G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7498023 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

Marois Guillaume G Muttarak Raya R Scherbov Sergei S

PloS one 20200917 9

<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy.<h4>Methods</h4>From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a disc ...[more]

PMID: 32941467

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic had a low impact on Japan in 2020, but the size of the epidemic increased considerably there in 2021. This study made a statistical analysis of life expectancy changes up to the end of 2021 in Japan.ObjectiveWe aimed to estimate changes in life expectancy from 2019 to 2021 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we decomposed the life expectancy changes from 2020-2021 into age-specific and cause of death-specific contributions.MethodsWe used the absolute number of deaths by age and prefecture in Japan to calculate life expectancy from 2019-21 at both national and prefectural levels, and also examined the correlation between life expectancy gap and annual number of COVID-19 cases, total person-days spent in intensive care, and documented deaths due to COVID-19. We used the Arriaga decomposition method to decompose national life expectancy changes from 2020 to 2021 into age and cause of death components.ResultsFrom 2019-2020, Japan's national level life expectancy across the entire population was extended by 0.24 years. From 2020-2021, it shortened by 0.15 years. The life expectancy shortened more among women (0.15 years) than men (0.12 years). There was significant heterogeneity in life expectancy changes from 2020-2021 by prefecture. It ranged from the maximum shortening of 0.57 years in Tottori prefecture to the maximum extension of 0.23 years in Fukui. The regression analysis revealed the negative correlation between the life expectancy change and burden of COVID-19 at prefectural level. The decomposition of life expectancy changes at birth from 2020-2021 showed that losses in life expectancy were largely attributable to the mortality of the population over 70 years old. Changes in life expectancy among infants and working-age adults mostly contributed to lengthening overall life expectancy. Among leading major causes of death, deaths due to neoplastic tumor and cardiovascular diseases contributed to shortening life expectancy, whereas respiratory diseases did not.ConclusionThe decades-long increasing trend in life expectancy was suspended by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, life expectancy changes from 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 were small in Japan. This may be attributable to the small epidemiological impact of COVID-19 during this time period, but nonetheless, the negative impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy was indicated in the present study. The chance of death accelerated in older people in 2021, but a smaller number of deaths than usual among infants and working age adults contributed to extended life expectancy, and the change in the cause of death structure under the COVID-19 pandemic also significantly contributed to shortening life expectancy.

Project description:Background & aimsThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems and it may have heavily impacted patients with liver cancer (LC). Herein, we evaluated whether the schedule of LC screening or procedures has been interrupted or delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsAn international survey evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and clinical trials from March 2020 to June 2020, as the first phase of a multicentre, international, and observational project. The focus was on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, cared for around the world during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave.ResultsNinety-one centres expressed interest to participate and 76 were included in the analysis, from Europe, South America, North America, Asia, and Africa (73.7%, 17.1%, 5.3%, 2.6%, and 1.3% per continent, respectively). Eighty-seven percent of the centres modified their clinical practice: 40.8% the diagnostic procedures, 80.9% the screening programme, 50% cancelled curative and/or palliative treatments for LC, and 41.7% modified the liver transplantation programme. Forty-five out of 69 (65.2%) centres in which clinical trials were running modified their treatments in that setting, but 58.1% were able to recruit new patients. The phone call service was modified in 51.4% of centres which had this service before the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 19/37).ConclusionsThe first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on the routine care of patients with liver cancer. Modifications in screening, diagnostic, and treatment algorithms may have significantly impaired the outcome of patients. Ongoing data collection and future analyses will report the benefits and disadvantages of the strategies implemented, aiding future decision-making.Lay summaryThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems globally. Herein, we assessed the impact of the first wave pandemic on patients with liver cancer and found that routine care for these patients has been majorly disrupted, which could have a significant impact on outcomes.

Project description:Background and aimsThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in associated lockdown restrictions for individuals across England, including the postponement of all recreational sporting provisions. The beneficial effects of regular physical activity are well established yet to the authors' knowledge, no research addresses the cancellation of all recreational provisions. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, this study assessed the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on recreational sports players, what alternative exercise methods have been sought and how players feel about returning to their sport.MethodAn online survey was distributed across England for six-weeks commencing in May 2020. A questionnaire explored differences in the impact of COVID-19 restrictions between sex, winter/summer/year-round sports, team/individual sports, age, and resilience groups. The use of alternative exercise methods, coping strategies and feelings about returning to sport were also investigated. Responses were gathered from 2023 adults whose recreational sport had been cancelled by COVID-19. All completed questionnaires (n = 1213) were taken for analysis (mean age = 49.41 years, SD = 17.165, 55.2% female).ResultsQuantitative findings showed the negative impact of COVID-19 restrictions was greater for females, those involved in winter and team sports, those aged 18-39 and low-resilient copers (p < .05). No significant differences were found between individuals that had had COVID-19 or were considered vulnerable by government guidelines. Acceptance was the most common coping strategy. The average number of days per week that participants exercised significantly increased during lockdown, with significant increases also seen in the use of online workouts, fitness apps and home-gym exercise. Qualitative findings suggested that participants are looking forward to the social and physical benefits of recreational activity restarting yet are concerned about the logistics of returning under social distancing restrictions. Other worries included loss of fitness, spreading (younger age groups) and catching (older age groups) COVID-19 and being in a crowd.ConclusionsResults highlight what is currently accessible to home-based exercisers and inform the reintroduction of recreational sports clubs. As COVID-19 restrictions look to persist, club representatives should provide accessible home-exercise options and be cautious of participant concerns when considering the return of recreational sport.

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

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