Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world's population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India's population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India.Method
Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19.Result
COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20-64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand.Conclusion
COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.
SUBMITTER: Vasishtha G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8040360 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic.DesignTime series analysis.Setting37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data.ParticipantsAnnual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex.Main outcome measuresReduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table.ResultsReduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: -2.33, 95% confidence interval -2.50 to -2.17; women: -2.14, -2.25 to -2.03), the United States (men: -2.27, -2.39 to -2.15; women: -1.61, -1.70 to -1.51), Bulgaria (men: -1.96, -2.11 to -1.81; women: -1.37, -1.74 to -1.01), Lithuania (men: -1.83, -2.07 to -1.59; women: -1.21, -1.36 to -1.05), Chile (men: -1.64, -1.97 to -1.32; women: -0.88, -1.28 to -0.50), and Spain (men: -1.35, -1.53 to -1.18; women: -1.13, -1.37 to -0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval 6820 to 7710; women: 3730, 2740 to 4730), Russia (men: 7020, 6550 to 7480; women: 4760, 4530 to 4990), Lithuania (men: 5430, 4750 to 6070; women: 2640, 2310 to 2980), the US (men: 4350, 4170 to 4530; women: 2430, 2320 to 2550), Poland (men: 3830, 3540 to 4120; women: 1830, 1630 to 2040), and Hungary (men: 2770, 2490 to 3040; women: 1920, 1590 to 2240). The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000.ConclusionMore than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.
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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy.MethodsFrom the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Southeastern Asia; and sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated.ResultsAt a 10% COVID-19 prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Southeastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to an infection prevalence of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a 50% prevalence of COVID-19 infections under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in Southeastern Asia, and by 1 to 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the COVID-19 infection prevalence rate remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner.InterpretationIn regions with relatively high life expectancy, if the infection prevalence threshold exceeds 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy, resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations, would set a country back on its path of human development.
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Project description:BackgroundDenmark was one of the few countries that experienced an increase in life expectancy in 2020, and one of the few to see a decrease in 2021. Because COVID-19 mortality is associated with socioeconomic status (SES), we hypothesize that certain subgroups of the Danish population experienced changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 that differed from the country overall. We aim to quantify life expectancy in Denmark in 2020 and 2021 by SES and compare this to recent trends in life expectancy (2014-2019).MethodsWe used Danish registry data from 2014 to 2021 for all individuals aged 30+. We classified the study population into SES groups using income quartiles and calculated life expectancy at age 30 by year, sex, and SES, and the differences in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021. We compared these changes to the average 1-year changes from 2014 to 2019 with 95% confidence intervals. Lastly, we decomposed these changes by age and cause of death distinguishing seven causes, including COVID-19, and a residual category.ResultsWe observed a mortality gradient in life expectancy changes across SES groups in both pandemic years. Among women, those of higher SES experienced a larger increase in life expectancy in 2020 and a smaller decrease in 2021 compared to those of lower SES. Among men, those of higher SES experienced an increase in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, while those of lower SES experienced a decrease in 2021. The impact of COVID-19 mortality on changes in life expectancy in 2020 was counterbalanced by improvements in non-COVID-19 mortality, especially driven by cancer and cardiovascular mortality. However, in 2021, non-COVID-19 mortality contributed negatively even for causes as cardiovascular mortality that has generally a positive impact on life expectancy changes, resulting in declines for most SES groups.ConclusionsCOVID-19 mortality disproportionally affected those of lower SES and exacerbated existing social inequalities in Denmark. We conclude that in health emergencies, particular attention should be paid to those who are least socially advantaged to avoid widening the already existing mortality gap with those of higher SES. This research contributes to the discussion on social inequalities in mortality in high-income countries.
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