Dataset Information

Smoking and multiple sclerosis risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Striking changes in the demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis (MS) strongly indicate an influence of modifiable exposures, which lend themselves well to intervention. It is important to pinpoint which of the many environmental, lifestyle, and sociodemographic changes that have occurred over the past decades, such as higher smoking and obesity rates, are responsible. Mendelian randomization (MR) is an elegant tool to overcome limitations inherent to observational studies and leverage human genetics to inform prevention strategies in MS. METHODS:We use genetic variants from the largest genome-wide association study for smoking phenotypes (initiation: N?=?378, heaviness: N?=?55, lifetime smoking: N?=?126) and body mass index (BMI, N?=?656) and apply these as instrumental variables in a two-sample MR analysis to the most recent meta-analysis for MS. We adjust for the genetic correlation between smoking and BMI in a multivariable MR. RESULTS:In univariable and multivariable MR, smoking does not have an effect on MS risk nor explains part of the association between BMI and MS risk. In contrast, in both analyses each standard deviation increase in BMI, corresponding to roughly 5 kg/m2 units, confers a 30% increase in MS risk. CONCLUSION:Despite observational studies repeatedly reporting an association between smoking and increased risk for MS, MR analyses on smoking phenotypes and MS risk could not confirm a causal relationship. This is in contrast with BMI, where observational studies and MR agree on a causal contribution. The reasons for the discrepancy between observational studies and our MR study concerning smoking and MS require further investigation.

SUBMITTER: Vandebergh M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7501136 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Smoking and multiple sclerosis risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

Vandebergh Marijne M Goris An A

Journal of neurology 20200611 10

<h4>Background</h4>Striking changes in the demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis (MS) strongly indicate an influence of modifiable exposures, which lend themselves well to intervention. It is important to pinpoint which of the many environmental, lifestyle, and sociodemographic changes that have occurred over the past decades, such as higher smoking and obesity rates, are responsible. Mendelian randomization (MR) is an elegant tool to overcome limitations inherent to observational studies an ...[more]

PMID: 32529581

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Project description:Observational studies have reported an association between obesity, as measured by elevated body mass index (BMI), in early adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, bias potentially introduced by confounding and reverse causation may have influenced these findings. Therefore, we elected to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate whether genetically increased BMI is associated with an increased risk of MS.Employing a two-sample MR approach, we used summary statistics from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and the International MS Genetics Consortium (IMSGC), the largest genome-wide association studies for BMI and MS, respectively (GIANT: n = 322,105; IMSGC: n = 14,498 cases and 24,091 controls). Seventy single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genome-wide significant (p < 5 x 10-8) for BMI in GIANT (n = 322,105) and were investigated for their association with MS risk in the IMSGC. The effect of each SNP on MS was weighted by its effect on BMI, and estimates were pooled to provide a summary measure for the effect of increased BMI upon risk of MS. Our results suggest that increased BMI influences MS susceptibility, where a 1 standard deviation increase in genetically determined BMI (kg/m2) increased odds of MS by 41% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.66, p = 2.7 x 10-5, I2 = 0%, 95% CI 0-29). Sensitivity analyses, including MR-Egger regression, and the weighted median approach provided no evidence of pleiotropic effects. The main study limitations are that, while these sensitivity analyses reduce the possibility that pleiotropy influenced our results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.Genetically elevated BMI is associated with risk of MS, providing evidence for a causal role for obesity in MS etiology. While obesity has been associated with many late-life outcomes, these findings suggest an important consequence of childhood and/or early adulthood obesity.

Project description:Observational studies have demonstrated an association between decreased vitamin D level and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, it remains unclear whether this relationship is causal. We undertook a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to evaluate whether genetically lowered vitamin D level influences the risk of MS.We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) level from SUNLIGHT, the largest (n = 33,996) genome-wide association study to date for vitamin D. Four SNPs were genome-wide significant for 25OHD level (p-values ranging from 6 × 10-10 to 2 × 10-109), and all four SNPs lay in, or near, genes strongly implicated in separate mechanisms influencing 25OHD. We then ascertained their effect on 25OHD level in 2,347 participants from a population-based cohort, the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, and tested the extent to which the 25OHD-decreasing alleles explained variation in 25OHD level. We found that the count of 25OHD-decreasing alleles across these four SNPs was strongly associated with lower 25OHD level (n = 2,347, F-test statistic = 49.7, p = 2.4 × 10-12). Next, we conducted an MR study to describe the effect of genetically lowered 25OHD on the odds of MS in the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium study, the largest genetic association study to date for MS (including up to 14,498 cases and 24,091 healthy controls). Alleles were weighted by their relative effect on 25OHD level, and sensitivity analyses were performed to test MR assumptions. MR analyses found that each genetically determined one-standard-deviation decrease in log-transformed 25OHD level conferred a 2.0-fold increase in the odds of MS (95% CI: 1.7-2.5; p = 7.7 × 10-12; I2 = 63%, 95% CI: 0%-88%). This result persisted in sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs possibly influenced by population stratification or pleiotropy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.2; p = 2.3 × 10-5; I2 = 47%, 95% CI: 0%-85%) and including only SNPs involved in 25OHD synthesis or metabolism (ORsynthesis = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.6, p = 1 × 10-9; ORmetabolism = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.7, p = 0.002). While these sensitivity analyses decreased the possibility that pleiotropy may have biased the results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.A genetically lowered 25OHD level is strongly associated with increased susceptibility to MS. Whether vitamin D sufficiency can delay, or prevent, MS onset merits further investigation in long-term randomized controlled trials.

Project description:BackgroundObservational studies and previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies have shown that genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels are associated with a high susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS). The present MR study aims to update the causal estimates for the effects of 25OHD levels on MS risk.MethodsTo date, the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) for serum 25OHD (n = 401,460) and MS (14,498 MS cases and 24,091 controls) was used to assess the effect of serum 25OHD levels on MS. All participants were of European ancestry. The MR-egger_intercept test and Cochran's Q statistic were used to determine the pleiotropy and the heterogeneity, respectively. MR-egger, weighted median, inverse variance weighted (multiplicative random effects), simple mode, and weighted mode methods were used to evaluate the causal association of serum 25OHD levels with MS. Finally, the effect of a single 25OHD SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) on MS was used to test the SNP bias.ResultsOne hundred and fifteen newly identified serum 25OHD genetic variants were extracted from a large-scale serum 25OHD GWAS dataset. The 20 most effective and independent 25OHD genetic instrumental variables were extracted from the MS GWAS summary statistics. Pleiotropy analysis suggested no significant pleiotropic variant among the 20 selected 25OHD genetic instrument variants in MS GWAS datasets. As serum levels of 25OHD based on genetic changes increased, the risk of MS decreased using MR-egger (Beta = - 0.940, p = 0.001; OR = 0.391), weighted median (Beta = - 0.835, p = 0.000; OR = 0.434), IVW (Beta = - 0.781, p = 0.000; OR = 0.458), simple mode (Beta = - 1.484, p = 0.016; OR = 0.227), and weighted mode (Beta = - 0.913, p = 0.000; OR = 0.401). Our results were robust, with no obvious bias based on investigating the single 25OHD SNP on MS.ConclusionsOur analysis suggested a causal association between genetically increased serum 25OHD levels and reduced MS in the European population.

Dataset Information

Smoking and multiple sclerosis risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

Publications

Smoking and multiple sclerosis risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

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