Little evidence for an effect of smoking on multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian Randomization study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mitchell RE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7728259 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Little evidence for an effect of smoking on multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian Randomization study.
Mitchell Ruth E RE Bates Kirsty K Wootton Robyn E RE Harroud Adil A Richards J Brent JB Davey Smith George G Munafò Marcus R MR
PLoS biology 20201130 11
The causes of multiple sclerosis (MS) remain unknown. Smoking has been associated with MS in observational studies and is often thought of as an environmental risk factor. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine whether this association is causal using genetic variants identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) as associated with smoking. We assessed both smoking initiation and lifetime smoking behaviour (which captures smoking duration, heaviness, and cessation). T ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundStriking changes in the demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis (MS) strongly indicate an influence of modifiable exposures, which lend themselves well to intervention. It is important to pinpoint which of the many environmental, lifestyle, and sociodemographic changes that have occurred over the past decades, such as higher smoking and obesity rates, are responsible. Mendelian randomization (MR) is an elegant tool to overcome limitations inherent to observational studies and leverage human genetics to inform prevention strategies in MS.MethodsWe use genetic variants from the largest genome-wide association study for smoking phenotypes (initiation: N = 378, heaviness: N = 55, lifetime smoking: N = 126) and body mass index (BMI, N = 656) and apply these as instrumental variables in a two-sample MR analysis to the most recent meta-analysis for MS. We adjust for the genetic correlation between smoking and BMI in a multivariable MR.ResultsIn univariable and multivariable MR, smoking does not have an effect on MS risk nor explains part of the association between BMI and MS risk. In contrast, in both analyses each standard deviation increase in BMI, corresponding to roughly 5 kg/m2 units, confers a 30% increase in MS risk.ConclusionDespite observational studies repeatedly reporting an association between smoking and increased risk for MS, MR analyses on smoking phenotypes and MS risk could not confirm a causal relationship. This is in contrast with BMI, where observational studies and MR agree on a causal contribution. The reasons for the discrepancy between observational studies and our MR study concerning smoking and MS require further investigation.
| S-EPMC7501136 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Observational studies have reported an association between obesity, as measured by elevated body mass index (BMI), in early adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, bias potentially introduced by confounding and reverse causation may have influenced these findings. Therefore, we elected to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate whether genetically increased BMI is associated with an increased risk of MS.Employing a two-sample MR approach, we used summary statistics from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and the International MS Genetics Consortium (IMSGC), the largest genome-wide association studies for BMI and MS, respectively (GIANT: n = 322,105; IMSGC: n = 14,498 cases and 24,091 controls). Seventy single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genome-wide significant (p < 5 x 10-8) for BMI in GIANT (n = 322,105) and were investigated for their association with MS risk in the IMSGC. The effect of each SNP on MS was weighted by its effect on BMI, and estimates were pooled to provide a summary measure for the effect of increased BMI upon risk of MS. Our results suggest that increased BMI influences MS susceptibility, where a 1 standard deviation increase in genetically determined BMI (kg/m2) increased odds of MS by 41% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.66, p = 2.7 x 10-5, I2 = 0%, 95% CI 0-29). Sensitivity analyses, including MR-Egger regression, and the weighted median approach provided no evidence of pleiotropic effects. The main study limitations are that, while these sensitivity analyses reduce the possibility that pleiotropy influenced our results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.Genetically elevated BMI is associated with risk of MS, providing evidence for a causal role for obesity in MS etiology. While obesity has been associated with many late-life outcomes, these findings suggest an important consequence of childhood and/or early adulthood obesity.
| S-EPMC4924848 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the potential for a causal effect of age at puberty on multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility using a mendelian randomization (MR) approach.MethodsWe used 372 genetic variants strongly associated with age at menarche in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) involving 329,245 women. The genetic architecture of pubertal timing across both sexes is highly correlated (genetic correlation [r g] = 0.75, p = 1.2 × 10-79), allowing these variants to provide reliable insight into pubertal timing in males as well. The effect of pubertal timing on risk of MS was measured with summary statistics from a GWAS of 14,802 cases with MS and 26,703 controls from the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium. Multivariable MR controlling for effects of body mass index (BMI) using genetic data from additional consortia investigated whether pubertal effects on MS were dependent on weight status.ResultsA 1-year increase in genetically predicted age at puberty decreased odds of MS by 8% (odds ratio [OR] 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86-0.99, p = 0.03). However, multivariable MR analysis showed that after accounting for effects on adult BMI, the association of age at puberty with MS susceptibility attenuated (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88-1.04, p = 0.36). Similar results were obtained when childhood BMI was incorporated. Sensitivity analyses provided no evidence of major bias from genetic pleiotropy.ConclusionsWe found support for an association between higher age at puberty and decreased risk of MS with a magnitude comparable to that reported in observational studies. This effect appears to be largely mediated by the strong association between age at puberty and obesity. A large causal effect of pubertal timing independent of BMI is unlikely.
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Project description:Observational studies have demonstrated an association between decreased vitamin D level and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, it remains unclear whether this relationship is causal. We undertook a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to evaluate whether genetically lowered vitamin D level influences the risk of MS.We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) level from SUNLIGHT, the largest (n = 33,996) genome-wide association study to date for vitamin D. Four SNPs were genome-wide significant for 25OHD level (p-values ranging from 6 × 10-10 to 2 × 10-109), and all four SNPs lay in, or near, genes strongly implicated in separate mechanisms influencing 25OHD. We then ascertained their effect on 25OHD level in 2,347 participants from a population-based cohort, the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, and tested the extent to which the 25OHD-decreasing alleles explained variation in 25OHD level. We found that the count of 25OHD-decreasing alleles across these four SNPs was strongly associated with lower 25OHD level (n = 2,347, F-test statistic = 49.7, p = 2.4 × 10-12). Next, we conducted an MR study to describe the effect of genetically lowered 25OHD on the odds of MS in the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium study, the largest genetic association study to date for MS (including up to 14,498 cases and 24,091 healthy controls). Alleles were weighted by their relative effect on 25OHD level, and sensitivity analyses were performed to test MR assumptions. MR analyses found that each genetically determined one-standard-deviation decrease in log-transformed 25OHD level conferred a 2.0-fold increase in the odds of MS (95% CI: 1.7-2.5; p = 7.7 × 10-12; I2 = 63%, 95% CI: 0%-88%). This result persisted in sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs possibly influenced by population stratification or pleiotropy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.2; p = 2.3 × 10-5; I2 = 47%, 95% CI: 0%-85%) and including only SNPs involved in 25OHD synthesis or metabolism (ORsynthesis = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.6, p = 1 × 10-9; ORmetabolism = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.7, p = 0.002). While these sensitivity analyses decreased the possibility that pleiotropy may have biased the results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.A genetically lowered 25OHD level is strongly associated with increased susceptibility to MS. Whether vitamin D sufficiency can delay, or prevent, MS onset merits further investigation in long-term randomized controlled trials.
| S-EPMC4549308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrevious research have implicated critical roles of systemic inflammation in the development of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). But the causal relationship between interleukins (ILs) and MS has not been fully elucidated.ObjectiveIn this study, we applied Mendelian randomization (MR) approaches to address the causal associations between genetically determined circulating levels of ILs and the risk of MS.MethodsGenetic instruments for circulating IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), IL-2 receptor α subunit (IL-2Rα), IL-6, IL-16, IL-17, and IL-18 were obtained from recently published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Summary-level data for MS were obtained from the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium. MR analyses were performed using the R software (version 3.6.1, The R Foundation) and the TwoSampleMR package.ResultsGenetic predisposition to higher circulating levels of IL-2Rα were significantly associated with MS risk. The odds ratio (OR) was 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.32; p < 0.001) per one standard deviation increase in circulating IL-2Rα levels. There was a suggestive association of circulating IL-1Ra with MS risk (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99; p = 0.027). The other ILs were not associated with the outcome.ConclusionOur results indicated that circulating IL-2Rα was causally associated with risk of MS.
| S-EPMC8081970 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multiple evidence from epidemiological studies has suggested association between physical activity and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the conclusion was still controversial between studies, and whether the association was causal or confounded is elusive. To evaluate the role of physical activity with different intensities in the risk of MS, we first estimated their genetic correlation, and then conducted two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses based on summary statistics from previous large genome-wide association studies. A significant genetic correlation was identified between moderate physical activity and the risk of MS (genetic correlation: -0.15, SE=0.05, P=2.9E-03). Meanwhile, higher moderate physical activity was significantly associated with a reduced risk of MS (OR:0.87, 95% CI:0.80-0.96, P=3.45E-03). Such association was further verified using summary statistics from another study on overall physical activity (OR:0.36, 95% CI:0.17-0.76, P=6.82E-03). The results were robust under all sensitivity analyses. Current results suggested moderate physical activity could reduce the risk of MS. These findings help better understand the role of physical activity in MS, and provide some lifestyle recommendations for individuals susceptible to MS.
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Project description:ObjectivesWe conducted a systematic review and wide-angled Mendelian randomization (MR) study to examine the association between possible risk factors and multiple sclerosis (MS).MethodsWe used MR analysis to assess the associations between 65 possible risk factors and MS using data from a genome-wide association study including 14 498 cases and 24 091 controls of European ancestry. For 18 exposures not suitable for MR analysis, we conducted a systematic review to obtain the latest meta-analyses evidence on their associations with MS.ResultsChildhood and adulthood body mass index were positively associated with MS, whereas physical activity and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D were inversely associated with MS. There was evidence of possible associations of type 2 diabetes, waist circumference, body fat percentage, age of puberty and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Data of systematic review showed that exposure to organic solvents, Epstein Barr virus and cytomegalovirus virus infection, and diphtheria and tetanus vaccination were associated with MS risk.ConclusionsThis study identified several modifiable risk factors for primary prevention of MS that should inform public health policy.
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Project description:BackgroundObservational studies and previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies have shown that genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels are associated with a high susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS). The present MR study aims to update the causal estimates for the effects of 25OHD levels on MS risk.MethodsTo date, the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) for serum 25OHD (n = 401,460) and MS (14,498 MS cases and 24,091 controls) was used to assess the effect of serum 25OHD levels on MS. All participants were of European ancestry. The MR-egger_intercept test and Cochran's Q statistic were used to determine the pleiotropy and the heterogeneity, respectively. MR-egger, weighted median, inverse variance weighted (multiplicative random effects), simple mode, and weighted mode methods were used to evaluate the causal association of serum 25OHD levels with MS. Finally, the effect of a single 25OHD SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) on MS was used to test the SNP bias.ResultsOne hundred and fifteen newly identified serum 25OHD genetic variants were extracted from a large-scale serum 25OHD GWAS dataset. The 20 most effective and independent 25OHD genetic instrumental variables were extracted from the MS GWAS summary statistics. Pleiotropy analysis suggested no significant pleiotropic variant among the 20 selected 25OHD genetic instrument variants in MS GWAS datasets. As serum levels of 25OHD based on genetic changes increased, the risk of MS decreased using MR-egger (Beta = - 0.940, p = 0.001; OR = 0.391), weighted median (Beta = - 0.835, p = 0.000; OR = 0.434), IVW (Beta = - 0.781, p = 0.000; OR = 0.458), simple mode (Beta = - 1.484, p = 0.016; OR = 0.227), and weighted mode (Beta = - 0.913, p = 0.000; OR = 0.401). Our results were robust, with no obvious bias based on investigating the single 25OHD SNP on MS.ConclusionsOur analysis suggested a causal association between genetically increased serum 25OHD levels and reduced MS in the European population.
| S-EPMC8722044 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:We sought to estimate the causal effect of low serum 25(OH)D on multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility that is not confounded by environmental or lifestyle factors or subject to reverse causality. METHODS:We conducted mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using an instrumental variable (IV) comprising 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms found to be associated with serum 25(OH)D levels at genome-wide significance. We analyzed the effect of the IV on MS risk and both age at onset and disease severity in 2 separate populations using logistic regression models that controlled for sex, year of birth, smoking, education, genetic ancestry, body mass index at age 18-20 years or in 20s, a weighted genetic risk score for 110 known MS-associated variants, and the presence of one or more HLA-DRB1*15:01 alleles. RESULTS:Findings from MR analyses using the IV showed increasing levels of 25(OH)D are associated with a decreased risk of MS in both populations. In white, non-Hispanic members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1,056 MS cases and 9,015 controls), the odds ratio (OR) was 0.79 (p = 0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64-0.99). In members of a Swedish population from the Epidemiological Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis and Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis MS case-control studies (6,335 cases and 5,762 controls), the OR was 0.86 (p = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.76-0.98). A meta-analysis of the 2 populations gave a combined OR of 0.85 (p = 0.003, 95% CI: 0.76-0.94). No association was observed for age at onset or disease severity. CONCLUSIONS:These results provide strong evidence that low serum 25(OH)D concentration is a cause of MS, independent of established risk factors.
| S-EPMC5022843 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Previous observational studies have shown that the serum uric acid (UA) level is decreased in persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). We used the two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) method to determine whether the serum UA level is causally associated with the risk of MS. We screened 26 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in association with serum UA level (p < 5 × 10-8) from a large genome-wide meta-analysis involving 110,347 individuals. The SNP outcome effects were obtained from two large international genetic studies of MS involving 38,589 individuals and 27,148 individuals. A total of 18 SNPs, including nine proxy SNPs, were included in the MR analysis. The estimate based on SNP rs12498742 that explained the largest proportion of variance showed that the odds ratio (OR) of UA (per mg/dl increase) for MS was 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-1.11; p = 0.96]. The main MR analysis based on the random effects inverse variance weighted method showed that the pooled OR was 1.05 (95% CI 0.92-1.19; p = 0.50). Although there was no evidence of net horizontal pleiotropy in MR-Egger regression (p = 0.48), excessive heterogeneity was found via Cochran's Q statistic (p = 9.6 × 10-4). The heterogeneity showed a substantial decrease after exclusion of two outlier SNPs (p = 0.17). The pooled ORs for the other MR methods ranged from 0.89 (95% CI 0.65-1.20; p = 0.45) to 1.05 (95% CI 0.96-1.14; p = 0.29). The results of sensitivity analyses and additional analyses all showed similar pooled estimates. MR analyses by using 81 MS -associated SNPs as instrumental variables showed that genetically predicted risk of MS was not significantly associated with serum UA level. The pooled OR was 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.02; p = 0.74) for the main MR analysis. This MR study does not support a causal effect of genetically determined serum UA level on the risk of MS, nor does it support a causal effect of genetically determined risk of MS on serum UA level.
| S-EPMC7133767 | biostudies-literature