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Epidemiological profile and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines.

ABSTRACT: The Philippines confirmed local transmission of COVID-19 on 7 March 2020. We described the characteristics and epidemiological time-to-event distributions for laboratory-confirmed cases in the Philippines recorded up to 29 April 2020 and followed until 22 May 2020. The median age of 8212 cases was 46 years (IQR 32-61), with 46.2% being female and 68.8% living in the National Capital Region. Health care workers represented 24.7% of all detected infections. Mean length of hospitalisation for those who were discharged or died were 16.00 days (95% CI 15.48-16.54) and 7.27 days (95% CI 6.59-8.24). Mean duration of illness was 26.66 days (95% CI 26.06-27.28) and 12.61 days (95% CI 11.88-13.37) for those who recovered or died. Mean serial interval was 6.90 days (95% CI 5.81-8.41). Epidemic doubling time prior to the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ; 11 February and 19 March) was 4.86 days (95% CI 4.67-5.07) and the reproductive number was 2.41 (95% CI 2.33-2.48). During the ECQ (20 March to 9 April), doubling time was 12.97 days (95% CI 12.57-13.39) and the reproductive number was 0.89 (95% CI 0.78-1.02).

SUBMITTER: Haw NJL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7506175 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological profile and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines.

Haw N J L NJL Uy J J Sy K T L KTL Abrigo M R M MRM

Epidemiology and infection 20200915

The Philippines confirmed local transmission of COVID-19 on 7 March 2020. We described the characteristics and epidemiological time-to-event distributions for laboratory-confirmed cases in the Philippines recorded up to 29 April 2020 and followed until 22 May 2020. The median age of 8212 cases was 46 years (IQR 32-61), with 46.2% being female and 68.8% living in the National Capital Region. Health care workers represented 24.7% of all detected infections. Mean length of hospitalisation for those ...[more]

PMID: 32928322

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Project description:BackgroundOn September 28, 2022, the first case of Omicron subvariant BF.7 was discovered among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in Hohhot, China, and then the epidemic broke out on a large scale during the National Day holiday. It is imminently necessary to construct a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hohhot.MethodsIn this study, we first investigated the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Hohhot, including the spatiotemporal distribution and sociodemographic distribution. Then, we proposed a time-varying Susceptible-Quarantined Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantined Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Removed (SQEIAHR) model to derive the epidemic curves. The next-generation matrix method was used to calculate the effective reproduction number (Re). Finally, we explored the effects of higher stringency measures on the development of the epidemic through scenario analysis.ResultsOf the 4,889 positive infected cases, the vast majority were asymptomatic and mild, mainly concentrated in central areas such as Xincheng District. People in the 30-59 age group primarily were affected by the current outbreak, accounting for 53.74%, but females and males were almost equally affected (1.03:1). Community screening (35.70%) and centralized isolation screening (26.28%) were the main ways to identify positive infected cases. Our model predicted the peak of the epidemic on October 6, 2022, the dynamic zero-COVID date on October 15, 2022, a number of peak cases of 629, and a cumulative number of infections of 4,963 (95% confidential interval (95%CI): 4,692 ~ 5,267), all four of which were highly consistent with the actual situation in Hohhot. Early in the outbreak, the basic reproduction number (R0) was approximately 7.01 (95%CI: 6.93 ~ 7.09), and then Re declined sharply to below 1.0 on October 6, 2022. Scenario analysis of higher stringency measures showed the importance of decreasing the transmission rate and increasing the quarantine rate to shorten the time to peak, dynamic zero-COVID and an Re below 1.0, as well as to reduce the number of peak cases and final affected population.ConclusionOur model was effective in predicting the epidemic trends of COVID-19, and the implementation of a more stringent combination of measures was indispensable in containing the spread of the virus.

Dataset Information

Epidemiological profile and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines.

Publications

Epidemiological profile and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines.

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