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Estimating the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using a time-shifted distribution analysis.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is an important aspect of public health. However, calculating CFR accurately is problematic early in a novel disease outbreak, due to uncertainties regarding the time course of disease and difficulties in diagnosis and reporting of cases. In this work, we present a simple method for calculating the CFR using only public case and death data over time by exploiting the correspondence between the time distributions of cases and deaths. The time-shifted distribution (TSD) analysis generates two parameters of interest: the delay time between reporting of cases and deaths and the CFR. These parameters converge reliably over time once the exponential growth phase has finished. Analysis is performed for early COVID-19 outbreaks in many countries, and we discuss corrections to CFR values using excess-death and seroprevalence data to estimate the infection fatality ratio (IFR). While CFR values range from 0.2% to 20% in different countries, estimates for IFR are mostly around 0.5-0.8% for countries that experienced moderate outbreaks and 1-3% for severe outbreaks. The simplicity and transparency of TSD analysis enhance its usefulness in characterizing a new disease as well as the state of the health and reporting systems.

SUBMITTER: Thomas BS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8438516 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating case fatality rates of COVID-19.

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Estimating under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Indian states: an approach using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio.

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Estimating the impact of virus testing strategies on the COVID-19 case fatality rate using fixed-effects models.

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Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.

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Understanding COVID-19: Digit ratio (2D:4D) and sex differences in national case fatality rates.

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COVID-19 Case Fatality and Alzheimer's Disease.

Project description:Previous studies have identified dementia as a risk factor for death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is unclear whether Alzheimer's disease (AD) is an independent risk factor for COVID-19 case fatality rate. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 387,841 COVID-19 patients through TriNetX. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, we found that AD patients had higher odds of dying from COVID-19 compared to patients without AD (Odds Ratio: 1.20, 95%confidence interval: 1.09-1.32, p < 0.001). Interestingly, we did not observe increased mortality from COVID-19 among patients with vascular dementia. These data are relevant to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

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Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France.

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COVID-19: A global and continental overview of the second wave and its (relatively) attenuated case fatality ratio

Project description:Introduction COVID-19 is pandemic. International travel bans in March 2020 dampened viral spread and resulted in an overnight global economic crisis. As countries ease travel and social distancing restrictions, viral resurgences are expected. This study was carried out in order to delineate the development of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to lockdown easements in June–July 2020. Methods Publically available data for daily new cases and deaths from December 2019 to September 2020 was obtained from “Our World In Data” website and analysed with Pearson correlation. Results At global level, both datasets exhibited three distinct time periods. Cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again. Almost all of the slopes in these three time periods were statistically significant. Deaths followed a similar three-part pattern, albeit more pronounced, with values lagging circa one week after new cases and a middle time period when numbers (of deaths) actually decreased, with all periods exhibiting significant slopes. At continent level, for new cases, Asia rose steadily, Europe is increasing again, the Americas and Africa are declining. Deaths follow a similar pattern. Oceania shows a bimodal pattern, with a first and second wave of cases shortly followed by deaths in a similar pattern. The monthly ratio of detected cases to deaths (case fatality ratio) initially rose to 0.08, then fell to 0.02. Conclusion The world is in its second wave of COVID-19, with fortunately reduced case fatality ratios. Highlights • The easing of public restrictions related to COVID-19 is producing a second wave of cases.• Globally, both new cases and deaths exhibit three distinct time periods.• New cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again to early August.• Deaths were similar, more pronounced, with a middle time period when deaths decreased.• Oceania shows a bimodal peak for new cases and deaths.

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