Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Feng Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7532528 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics.
Feng Zhichao Z Yu Qizhi Q Yao Shanhu S Luo Lei L Zhou Wenming W Mao Xiaowen X Li Jennifer J Duan Junhong J Yan Zhimin Z Yang Min M Tan Hongpei H Ma Mengtian M Li Ting T Yi Dali D Mi Ze Z Zhao Huafei H Jiang Yi Y He Zhenhu Z Li Huiling H Nie Wei W Liu Yin Y Zhao Jing J Luo Muqing M Liu Xuanhui X Rong Pengfei P Wang Wei W
Nature communications 20201002 1
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread to become a worldwide emergency. Early identification of patients at risk of progression may facilitate more individually aligned treatment plans and optimized utilization of medical resource. Here we conducted a multicenter retrospective study involving patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia to investigate the utility of chest computed tomography (CT) and clinical characteristics to risk-stratify the patients. Our results ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionComputed tomography (CT) can be effective for the early screening and diagnosis of COVID-19. This study aimed to investigate the distinctive CT characteristics of two stages of the disease (progression and remission).MethodsWe included all COVID-19 patients admitted to Wenzhou Central Hospital from January to February, 2020. Patients underwent multiple chest CT scans at intervals of 3-10 days. CT features were recorded, such as the lesion lobe, distribution characteristics (subpleural, scattered or diffused), shape of the lesion, maximum size of the lesion, lesion morphology (ground-glass opacity, GGO) and consolidation features. When consolidation was positive, the boundary was identified to determine its clarity.ResultsThe ratios of some representative features differed between the remission stage and the progression phase, such as round-shape lesion (8.0% vs 34.4%), GGO (65.0% vs 87.5%), consolidation (62.0% vs 31.3%), large cable sign (59.0% vs 9.4%) and crazy-paving sign (20.0% vs 50.0%). Using these features, we pooled all the CT data (n = 132) and established a logistic regression model to predict the current development stage. The variables consolidation, boundary feature, large cable sign and crazy-paving sign were the most significant factors, based on a variable named "prediction of progression or remission" (PPR) that we constructed. The ROC curve showed that PPR had an AUC of 0.882 (cutoff value = 0.66, sensitivity = 0.75, specificity = 0.875).ConclusionCT characteristics, in particular, round shape, GGO, consolidation, large cable sign, and crazy-paving sign, may increase the recognition of the intrapulmonary development of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7645958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The main objective of this work is to develop and evaluate an artificial intelligence system based on deep learning capable of automatically identifying, quantifying, and characterizing COVID-19 pneumonia patterns in order to assess disease severity and predict clinical outcomes, and to compare the prediction performance with respect to human reader severity assessment and whole lung radiomics. We propose a deep learning based scheme to automatically segment the different lesion subtypes in nonenhanced CT scans. The automatic lesion quantification was used to predict clinical outcomes. The proposed technique has been independently tested in a multicentric cohort of 103 patients, retrospectively collected between March and July of 2020. Segmentation of lesion subtypes was evaluated using both overlapping (Dice) and distance-based (Hausdorff and average surface) metrics, while the proposed system to predict clinically relevant outcomes was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC). Additionally, other metrics including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were estimated. 95% confidence intervals were properly calculated. The agreement between the automatic estimate of parenchymal damage (%) and the radiologists' severity scoring was strong, with a Spearman correlation coefficient (R) of 0.83. The automatic quantification of lesion subtypes was able to predict patient mortality, admission to the Intensive Care Units (ICU) and need for mechanical ventilation with an AUC of 0.87, 0.73 and 0.68 respectively. The proposed artificial intelligence system enabled a better prediction of those clinically relevant outcomes when compared to the radiologists' interpretation and to whole lung radiomics. In conclusion, deep learning lesion subtyping in COVID-19 pneumonia from noncontrast chest CT enables quantitative assessment of disease severity and better prediction of clinical outcomes with respect to whole lung radiomics or radiologists' severity score.
| S-EPMC9172615 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With the continued transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) throughout the world, identification of highly suspected COVID-19 patients remains an urgent priority. In this study, we developed and validated COVID-19 risk scores to identify patients with COVID-19. In this study, for patient-wise analysis, three signatures, including the risk score using radiomic features only, the risk score using clinical factors only, and the risk score combining radiomic features and clinical variables, show an excellent performance in differentiating COVID-19 from other viral-induced pneumonias in the validation set. For lesion-wise analysis, the risk score using three radiomic features only also achieved an excellent AUC value. In contrast, the performance of 130 radiologists based on the chest CT images alone without the clinical characteristics included was moderate as compared to the risk scores developed. The risk scores depicting the correlation of CT radiomics and clinical factors with COVID-19 could be used to accurately identify patients with COVID-19, which would have clinically translatable diagnostic and therapeutic implications from a precision medicine perspective.
| S-EPMC8064216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and computed tomography (CT) features associated with severe and critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.Materials and methodsEighty-three patients with COVID-19 pneumonia including 25 severe/critical cases and 58 ordinary cases were enrolled. The chest CT images and clinical data of them were reviewed and compared. The risk factors associated with disease severity were analyzed.ResultsCompared with the ordinary patients, the severe/critical patients had older ages, higher incidence of comorbidities, cough, expectoration, chest pain, and dyspnea. The incidences of consolidation, linear opacities, crazy-paving pattern, and bronchial wall thickening in severe/critical patients were significantly higher than those of the ordinary patients. Besides, severe/critical patients showed higher incidences of lymph node enlargement, pericardial effusion, and pleural effusion than the ordinary patients. The CT scores of severe/critical patients were significantly higher than those of the ordinary patients (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the sensitivity and specificity of CT score were 80.0% and 82.8%, respectively, for the discrimination of the 2 types. The clinical factors of age older than 50 years, comorbidities, dyspnea, chest pain, cough, expectoration, decreased lymphocytes, and increased inflammation indicators were risk factors for severe/critical COVID-19 pneumonia. Computed tomography findings of consolidation, linear opacities, crazy-paving pattern, bronchial wall thickening, high CT scores, and extrapulmonary lesions were features of severe/critical COVID-19 pneumonia.ConclusionsThere are significant differences in clinical symptoms, laboratory examinations, and CT manifestations between the ordinary patients and the severe/critical patients. Many factors are related to the severity of the disease, which can help clinicians to judge the severity of the patient and evaluate the prognosis.
| S-EPMC7147273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The role and performance of chest CT in the diagnosis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains under active investigation. Purpose To evaluate the French national experience using Chest CT for COVID-19, results of chest CT and RT-PCR were compared together and with the final discharge diagnosis used as reference standard. Materials and Methods A structured CT scan survey (NCT04339686) was sent to 26 hospital radiology departments in France between March 2 and April 24 2020. These dates correspond to the peak of the national COVID-19 epidemic. Radiology departments were selected to reflect the estimated geographical prevalence heterogeneities of the epidemic. All symptomatic patients suspected of having a COVID-19 pneumonia who underwent within 48 hours both initial chest CT and at least one RT-PCR testing were included. The final discharge diagnosis, based on multiparametric items, was recorded. Data for each center were prospectively collected and gathered each week. Test efficacy was determined by using Mann-Whitney Test, Student's t-test, Chi-square test and Pearson's correlation. A p value <.05 determined statistical significance. Results Twenty-six of 26 hospital radiology departments responded to the survey with 7500 patients entered; 2652 did not have RT-PCR results or had unknown or excess delay between RT-PCR and CT. After exclusions, 4824 patients (mean age 64, ± 19 yrs, 2669 males) were included. Using final diagnosis as the reference, 2564 of the 4824 patients were positive for COVID-19 (53%). Sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of chest CT for diagnosing COVID-19 were 2319/2564 (90%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 89, 91), 2056/2260 (91%, 95%CI: 91, 92%), 2056/2300 (89%, 95%CI; 87, 90%) and 2319/2524 (92%, 95%CI 91, 93%) respectively. There was no significant difference for chest CT efficacy among the 26 geographically separate sites, each with varying amounts of disease prevalence. Conclusion Use of chest CT for the initial diagnosis and triage of suspected COVID-19 patients was successful.
| S-EPMC7465292 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess inter-reader agreements and diagnostic accuracy of chest CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with intermediate clinical probability during an acute disease outbreak.MethodsFrom March 20 to April 8, 319 patients (mean age 62.3 years old) consecutive patients with an intermediate clinical probability of COVID-19 pneumonia underwent a chest CT scan. Two independent chest radiologists blinded to clinical information and RT-PCR results retrospectively reviewed and classified images on a 1-5 confidence level scale for COVID-19 pneumonia. Agreements between radiologists were assessed with kappa statistics. Diagnostic accuracy of chest CT compared with RT-PCR assay and patient outcomes was measured using receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 pneumonia were calculated.ResultsInter-observer agreement for highly probable (kappa: 0.83 [p < .001]) and highly probable or probable (kappa: 0.82 [p < .001]) diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia was very good. RT-PCR tests performed in 307 patients were positive in 174 and negative in 133. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.94 and 0.92 respectively. With a disease prevalence of 61.2%, PPV were 95.9% and 94.3%, and NPV 84.4% and 77.1%.ConclusionDuring acute COVID-19 outbreak, chest CT scan may be used for triage of patients with intermediate clinical probability with very good inter-observer agreements and diagnostic accuracy.Key points• Concordances between two chest radiologists to diagnose or exclude a COVID-19 pneumonia in 319 consecutive patients with intermediate clinical probability were very good (kappa: 0.82; p < .001). • When compared with RT-PCR results and patient outcomes, the diagnostic accuracy of CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia was high for both radiologists (AUC: 0.94 and 0.92). • With a disease prevalence of 61.2% in the studied population, the positive predictive values of CT for diagnosing COVID-19 pneumonia were 95.9% and 94.3% with negative predictive values of 84.4% and 77.1%.
| S-EPMC7532930 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesAn artificial intelligence model was adopted to identify mild COVID-19 pneumonia from computed tomography (CT) volumes, and its diagnostic performance was then evaluated.MethodsIn this retrospective multicenter study, an atrous convolution-based deep learning model was established for the computer-assisted diagnosis of mild COVID-19 pneumonia. The dataset included 2087 chest CT exams collected from four hospitals between 1 January 2019 and 31 May 2020. The true positive rate, true negative rate, receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve (AUC) and convolutional feature map were used to evaluate the model.ResultsThe proposed deep learning model was trained on 1538 patients and tested on an independent testing cohort of 549 patients. The overall sensitivity was 91.5% (195/213; p < 0.001, 95% CI: 89.2-93.9%), the overall specificity was 90.5% (304/336; p < 0.001, 95% CI: 88.0-92.9%) and the general AUC value was 0.955 (p < 0.001).ConclusionsA deep learning model can accurately detect COVID-19 and serve as an important supplement to the COVID-19 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test.Key points• The implementation of a deep learning model to identify mild COVID-19 pneumonia was confirmed to be effective and feasible. • The strategy of using a binary code instead of the region of interest label to identify mild COVID-19 pneumonia was verified. • This AI model can assist in the early screening of COVID-19 without interfering with normal clinical examinations.
| S-EPMC7971359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo develop and validate a machine learning model for the prediction of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe included 424 patients with non-severe COVID-19 on admission from January 17, 2020, to February 17, 2020, in the primary cohort of this retrospective multicenter study. The extent of lung involvement was quantified on chest CT images by a deep learning-based framework. The composite endpoint was the occurrence of severe or critical COVID-19 or death during hospitalization. The optimal machine learning classifier and feature subset were selected for model construction. The performance was further tested in an external validation cohort consisting of 98 patients.ResultsThere was no significant difference in the prevalence of adverse outcomes (8.7% vs. 8.2%, p = 0.858) between the primary and validation cohorts. The machine learning method extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and optimal feature subset including lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), presence of comorbidity, CT lesion ratio (lesion%), and hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were selected for model construction. The XGBoost classifier based on the optimal feature subset performed well for the prediction of developing adverse outcomes in the primary and validation cohorts, with AUCs of 0.959 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.936-0.976) and 0.953 (95% CI: 0.891-0.986), respectively. Furthermore, the XGBoost classifier also showed clinical usefulness.ConclusionsWe presented a machine learning model that could be effectively used as a predictor of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, opening up the possibility for patient stratification and treatment allocation.Key points• Developing an individually prognostic model for COVID-19 has the potential to allow efficient allocation of medical resources. • We proposed a deep learning-based framework for accurate lung involvement quantification on chest CT images. • Machine learning based on clinical and CT variables can facilitate the prediction of adverse outcomes of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8046645 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesGround-glass opacity and consolidation are recognized typical features of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pneumonia on Chest CT, yet ancillary findings have not been fully described. We aimed to describe ancillary findings of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT, to define their prevalence, and investigate their association with clinical data.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed our CT chest cases with coupled reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR). Patients with negative rt-PCR or without admission chest CT were excluded. Ancillary findings included: vessel enlargement, subpleural curvilinear lines, dependent subpleural atelectasis, centrilobular solid nodules, pleural and/or pericardial effusions, enlarged mediastinal lymph nodes. Continuous data were expressed as median and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and tested by Mann-Whitney U test.ResultsAncillary findings were represented by 106/252 (42.1%, 36.1 to 48.2) vessel enlargement, 50/252 (19.8%, 15.4 to 25.2) subpleural curvilinear lines, 26/252 (10.1%, 7.1 to 14.7) dependent subpleural atelectasis, 15/252 (5.9%, 3.6 to 9.6) pleural effusion, 15/252 (5.9%, 3.6 to 9.6) mediastinal lymph nodes enlargement, 13/252 (5.2%, 3 to 8.6) centrilobular solid nodules, and 6/252 (2.4%, 1.1 to 5.1) pericardial effusion. Air space disease was more extensive in patients with vessel enlargement or centrilobular solid nodules (p < 0.001). Vessel enlargement was associated with longer history of fever (p = 0.035) and lower admission oxygen saturation (p = 0.014); dependent subpleural atelectasis with lower oxygen saturation (p < 0.001) and higher respiratory rate (p < 0.001); mediastinal lymph nodes with shorter history of cough (p = 0.046); centrilobular solid nodules with lower prevalence of cough (p = 0.023), lower oxygen saturation (p < 0.001), and higher respiratory rate (p = 0.032), and pericardial effusion with shorter history of cough (p = 0.015). Ancillary findings associated with longer hospital stay were subpleural curvilinear lines (p = 0.02), whereas centrilobular solid nodules were associated with higher rate of intensive care unit admission (p = 0.01).ConclusionTypical high-resolution CT findings of COVID-19 pneumonia are frequently associated with ancillary findings that variably associate with disease extent, clinical parameters, and disease severity.Advances in knowledgeAncillary findings might reflect the broad range of heterogeneous mechanisms in severe acute respiratory syndrome from viral pneumonia, and potentially help disease phenotyping.
| S-EPMC7934290 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Even with over 80% of the population being vaccinated against COVID-19, the disease continues to claim victims. Therefore, it is crucial to have a secure Computer-Aided Diagnostic system that can assist in identifying COVID-19 and determining the necessary level of care. This is especially important in the Intensive Care Unit to monitor disease progression or regression in the fight against this epidemic. To accomplish this, we merged public datasets from the literature to train lung and lesion segmentation models with five different distributions. We then trained eight CNN models for COVID-19 and Common-Acquired Pneumonia classification. If the examination was classified as COVID-19, we quantified the lesions and assessed the severity of the full CT scan. To validate the system, we used Resnetxt101 Unet++ and Mobilenet Unet for lung and lesion segmentation, respectively, achieving accuracy of 98.05%, F1-score of 98.70%, precision of 98.7%, recall of 98.7%, and specificity of 96.05%. This was accomplished in just 19.70 s per full CT scan, with external validation on the SPGC dataset. Finally, when classifying these detected lesions, we used Densenet201 and achieved accuracy of 90.47%, F1-score of 93.85%, precision of 88.42%, recall of 100.0%, and specificity of 65.07%. The results demonstrate that our pipeline can correctly detect and segment lesions due to COVID-19 and Common-Acquired Pneumonia in CT scans. It can differentiate these two classes from normal exams, indicating that our system is efficient and effective in identifying the disease and assessing the severity of the condition.
| S-EPMC10215490 | biostudies-literature