Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Feng Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7532528 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Early prediction of disease progression in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with chest CT and clinical characteristics.
Feng Zhichao Z Yu Qizhi Q Yao Shanhu S Luo Lei L Zhou Wenming W Mao Xiaowen X Li Jennifer J Duan Junhong J Yan Zhimin Z Yang Min M Tan Hongpei H Ma Mengtian M Li Ting T Yi Dali D Mi Ze Z Zhao Huafei H Jiang Yi Y He Zhenhu Z Li Huiling H Nie Wei W Liu Yin Y Zhao Jing J Luo Muqing M Liu Xuanhui X Rong Pengfei P Wang Wei W
Nature communications 20201002 1
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread to become a worldwide emergency. Early identification of patients at risk of progression may facilitate more individually aligned treatment plans and optimized utilization of medical resource. Here we conducted a multicenter retrospective study involving patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia to investigate the utility of chest computed tomography (CT) and clinical characteristics to risk-stratify the patients. Our results ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionComputed tomography (CT) can be effective for the early screening and diagnosis of COVID-19. This study aimed to investigate the distinctive CT characteristics of two stages of the disease (progression and remission).MethodsWe included all COVID-19 patients admitted to Wenzhou Central Hospital from January to February, 2020. Patients underwent multiple chest CT scans at intervals of 3-10 days. CT features were recorded, such as the lesion lobe, distribution characteristics (subpleural, scattered or diffused), shape of the lesion, maximum size of the lesion, lesion morphology (ground-glass opacity, GGO) and consolidation features. When consolidation was positive, the boundary was identified to determine its clarity.ResultsThe ratios of some representative features differed between the remission stage and the progression phase, such as round-shape lesion (8.0% vs 34.4%), GGO (65.0% vs 87.5%), consolidation (62.0% vs 31.3%), large cable sign (59.0% vs 9.4%) and crazy-paving sign (20.0% vs 50.0%). Using these features, we pooled all the CT data (n = 132) and established a logistic regression model to predict the current development stage. The variables consolidation, boundary feature, large cable sign and crazy-paving sign were the most significant factors, based on a variable named "prediction of progression or remission" (PPR) that we constructed. The ROC curve showed that PPR had an AUC of 0.882 (cutoff value = 0.66, sensitivity = 0.75, specificity = 0.875).ConclusionCT characteristics, in particular, round shape, GGO, consolidation, large cable sign, and crazy-paving sign, may increase the recognition of the intrapulmonary development of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7645958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With the continued transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) throughout the world, identification of highly suspected COVID-19 patients remains an urgent priority. In this study, we developed and validated COVID-19 risk scores to identify patients with COVID-19. In this study, for patient-wise analysis, three signatures, including the risk score using radiomic features only, the risk score using clinical factors only, and the risk score combining radiomic features and clinical variables, show an excellent performance in differentiating COVID-19 from other viral-induced pneumonias in the validation set. For lesion-wise analysis, the risk score using three radiomic features only also achieved an excellent AUC value. In contrast, the performance of 130 radiologists based on the chest CT images alone without the clinical characteristics included was moderate as compared to the risk scores developed. The risk scores depicting the correlation of CT radiomics and clinical factors with COVID-19 could be used to accurately identify patients with COVID-19, which would have clinically translatable diagnostic and therapeutic implications from a precision medicine perspective.
| S-EPMC8064216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and computed tomography (CT) features associated with severe and critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Eighty-three patients with COVID-19 pneumonia including 25 severe/critical cases and 58 ordinary cases were enrolled. The chest CT images and clinical data of them were reviewed and compared. The risk factors associated with disease severity were analyzed. RESULTS:Compared with the ordinary patients, the severe/critical patients had older ages, higher incidence of comorbidities, cough, expectoration, chest pain, and dyspnea. The incidences of consolidation, linear opacities, crazy-paving pattern, and bronchial wall thickening in severe/critical patients were significantly higher than those of the ordinary patients. Besides, severe/critical patients showed higher incidences of lymph node enlargement, pericardial effusion, and pleural effusion than the ordinary patients. The CT scores of severe/critical patients were significantly higher than those of the ordinary patients (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the sensitivity and specificity of CT score were 80.0% and 82.8%, respectively, for the discrimination of the 2 types. The clinical factors of age older than 50 years, comorbidities, dyspnea, chest pain, cough, expectoration, decreased lymphocytes, and increased inflammation indicators were risk factors for severe/critical COVID-19 pneumonia. Computed tomography findings of consolidation, linear opacities, crazy-paving pattern, bronchial wall thickening, high CT scores, and extrapulmonary lesions were features of severe/critical COVID-19 pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS:There are significant differences in clinical symptoms, laboratory examinations, and CT manifestations between the ordinary patients and the severe/critical patients. Many factors are related to the severity of the disease, which can help clinicians to judge the severity of the patient and evaluate the prognosis.
| S-EPMC7147273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The role and performance of chest CT in the diagnosis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains under active investigation. Purpose To evaluate the French national experience using Chest CT for COVID-19, results of chest CT and RT-PCR were compared together and with the final discharge diagnosis used as reference standard. Materials and Methods A structured CT scan survey (NCT04339686) was sent to 26 hospital radiology departments in France between March 2 and April 24 2020. These dates correspond to the peak of the national COVID-19 epidemic. Radiology departments were selected to reflect the estimated geographical prevalence heterogeneities of the epidemic. All symptomatic patients suspected of having a COVID-19 pneumonia who underwent within 48 hours both initial chest CT and at least one RT-PCR testing were included. The final discharge diagnosis, based on multiparametric items, was recorded. Data for each center were prospectively collected and gathered each week. Test efficacy was determined by using Mann-Whitney Test, Student's t-test, Chi-square test and Pearson's correlation. A p value <.05 determined statistical significance. Results Twenty-six of 26 hospital radiology departments responded to the survey with 7500 patients entered; 2652 did not have RT-PCR results or had unknown or excess delay between RT-PCR and CT. After exclusions, 4824 patients (mean age 64, ± 19 yrs, 2669 males) were included. Using final diagnosis as the reference, 2564 of the 4824 patients were positive for COVID-19 (53%). Sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of chest CT for diagnosing COVID-19 were 2319/2564 (90%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 89, 91), 2056/2260 (91%, 95%CI: 91, 92%), 2056/2300 (89%, 95%CI; 87, 90%) and 2319/2524 (92%, 95%CI 91, 93%) respectively. There was no significant difference for chest CT efficacy among the 26 geographically separate sites, each with varying amounts of disease prevalence. Conclusion Use of chest CT for the initial diagnosis and triage of suspected COVID-19 patients was successful.
| S-EPMC7465292 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess inter-reader agreements and diagnostic accuracy of chest CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with intermediate clinical probability during an acute disease outbreak.MethodsFrom March 20 to April 8, 319 patients (mean age 62.3 years old) consecutive patients with an intermediate clinical probability of COVID-19 pneumonia underwent a chest CT scan. Two independent chest radiologists blinded to clinical information and RT-PCR results retrospectively reviewed and classified images on a 1-5 confidence level scale for COVID-19 pneumonia. Agreements between radiologists were assessed with kappa statistics. Diagnostic accuracy of chest CT compared with RT-PCR assay and patient outcomes was measured using receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 pneumonia were calculated.ResultsInter-observer agreement for highly probable (kappa: 0.83 [p?<?.001]) and highly probable or probable (kappa: 0.82 [p?<?.001]) diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia was very good. RT-PCR tests performed in 307 patients were positive in 174 and negative in 133. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.94 and 0.92 respectively. With a disease prevalence of 61.2%, PPV were 95.9% and 94.3%, and NPV 84.4% and 77.1%.ConclusionDuring acute COVID-19 outbreak, chest CT scan may be used for triage of patients with intermediate clinical probability with very good inter-observer agreements and diagnostic accuracy.Key points• Concordances between two chest radiologists to diagnose or exclude a COVID-19 pneumonia in 319 consecutive patients with intermediate clinical probability were very good (kappa: 0.82; p?<?.001). • When compared with RT-PCR results and patient outcomes, the diagnostic accuracy of CT to identify COVID-19 pneumonia was high for both radiologists (AUC: 0.94 and 0.92). • With a disease prevalence of 61.2% in the studied population, the positive predictive values of CT for diagnosing COVID-19 pneumonia were 95.9% and 94.3% with negative predictive values of 84.4% and 77.1%.
| S-EPMC7532930 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo develop and validate a machine learning model for the prediction of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe included 424 patients with non-severe COVID-19 on admission from January 17, 2020, to February 17, 2020, in the primary cohort of this retrospective multicenter study. The extent of lung involvement was quantified on chest CT images by a deep learning-based framework. The composite endpoint was the occurrence of severe or critical COVID-19 or death during hospitalization. The optimal machine learning classifier and feature subset were selected for model construction. The performance was further tested in an external validation cohort consisting of 98 patients.ResultsThere was no significant difference in the prevalence of adverse outcomes (8.7% vs. 8.2%, p = 0.858) between the primary and validation cohorts. The machine learning method extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and optimal feature subset including lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), presence of comorbidity, CT lesion ratio (lesion%), and hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were selected for model construction. The XGBoost classifier based on the optimal feature subset performed well for the prediction of developing adverse outcomes in the primary and validation cohorts, with AUCs of 0.959 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.936-0.976) and 0.953 (95% CI: 0.891-0.986), respectively. Furthermore, the XGBoost classifier also showed clinical usefulness.ConclusionsWe presented a machine learning model that could be effectively used as a predictor of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, opening up the possibility for patient stratification and treatment allocation.Key points• Developing an individually prognostic model for COVID-19 has the potential to allow efficient allocation of medical resources. • We proposed a deep learning-based framework for accurate lung involvement quantification on chest CT images. • Machine learning based on clinical and CT variables can facilitate the prediction of adverse outcomes of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8046645 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesGround-glass opacity and consolidation are recognized typical features of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pneumonia on Chest CT, yet ancillary findings have not been fully described. We aimed to describe ancillary findings of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT, to define their prevalence, and investigate their association with clinical data.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed our CT chest cases with coupled reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR). Patients with negative rt-PCR or without admission chest CT were excluded. Ancillary findings included: vessel enlargement, subpleural curvilinear lines, dependent subpleural atelectasis, centrilobular solid nodules, pleural and/or pericardial effusions, enlarged mediastinal lymph nodes. Continuous data were expressed as median and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and tested by Mann-Whitney U test.ResultsAncillary findings were represented by 106/252 (42.1%, 36.1 to 48.2) vessel enlargement, 50/252 (19.8%, 15.4 to 25.2) subpleural curvilinear lines, 26/252 (10.1%, 7.1 to 14.7) dependent subpleural atelectasis, 15/252 (5.9%, 3.6 to 9.6) pleural effusion, 15/252 (5.9%, 3.6 to 9.6) mediastinal lymph nodes enlargement, 13/252 (5.2%, 3 to 8.6) centrilobular solid nodules, and 6/252 (2.4%, 1.1 to 5.1) pericardial effusion. Air space disease was more extensive in patients with vessel enlargement or centrilobular solid nodules (p < 0.001). Vessel enlargement was associated with longer history of fever (p = 0.035) and lower admission oxygen saturation (p = 0.014); dependent subpleural atelectasis with lower oxygen saturation (p < 0.001) and higher respiratory rate (p < 0.001); mediastinal lymph nodes with shorter history of cough (p = 0.046); centrilobular solid nodules with lower prevalence of cough (p = 0.023), lower oxygen saturation (p < 0.001), and higher respiratory rate (p = 0.032), and pericardial effusion with shorter history of cough (p = 0.015). Ancillary findings associated with longer hospital stay were subpleural curvilinear lines (p = 0.02), whereas centrilobular solid nodules were associated with higher rate of intensive care unit admission (p = 0.01).ConclusionTypical high-resolution CT findings of COVID-19 pneumonia are frequently associated with ancillary findings that variably associate with disease extent, clinical parameters, and disease severity.Advances in knowledgeAncillary findings might reflect the broad range of heterogeneous mechanisms in severe acute respiratory syndrome from viral pneumonia, and potentially help disease phenotyping.
| S-EPMC7934290 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Despite its high sensitivity in diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a screening population, the chest CT appearance of COVID-19 pneumonia is thought to be nonspecific. Purpose To assess the performance of radiologists in the United States and China in differentiating COVID-19 from viral pneumonia at chest CT. Materials and Methods In this study, 219 patients with positive COVID-19, as determined with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and abnormal chest CT findings, were retrospectively identified from seven Chinese hospitals in Hunan Province, China, from January 6 to February 20, 2020. Two hundred five patients with positive respiratory pathogen panel results for viral pneumonia and CT findings consistent with or highly suspicious for pneumonia, according to original radiologic interpretation within 7 days of each other, were identified from Rhode Island Hospital in Providence, RI. Three radiologists from China reviewed all chest CT scans (n = 424) blinded to RT-PCR findings to differentiate COVID-19 from viral pneumonia. A sample of 58 age-matched patients was randomly selected and evaluated by four radiologists from the United States in a similar fashion. Different CT features were recorded and compared between the two groups. Results For all chest CT scans (n = 424), the accuracy of the three radiologists from China in differentiating COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia was 83% (350 of 424), 80% (338 of 424), and 60% (255 of 424). In the randomly selected sample (n = 58), the sensitivities of three radiologists from China and four radiologists from the United States were 80%, 67%, 97%, 93%, 83%, 73%, and 70%, respectively. The corresponding specificities of the same readers were 100%, 93%, 7%, 100%, 93%, 93%, and 100%, respectively. Compared with non-COVID-19 pneumonia, COVID-19 pneumonia was more likely to have a peripheral distribution (80% vs 57%, P < .001), ground-glass opacity (91% vs 68%, P < .001), fine reticular opacity (56% vs 22%, P < .001), and vascular thickening (59% vs 22%, P < .001), but it was less likely to have a central and peripheral distribution (14% vs 35%, P < .001), pleural effusion (4% vs 39%, P < .001), or lymphadenopathy (3% vs 10%, P = .002). Conclusion Radiologists in China and in the United States distinguished coronavirus disease 2019 from viral pneumonia at chest CT with moderate to high accuracy. ©?RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. A translation of this abstract in Farsi is available in the supplement. ????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ???.
| S-EPMC7233414 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7537264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo develop and test computer software to detect, quantify, and monitor progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 using chest CT scans.MethodsOne hundred twenty chest CT scans from subjects with lung infiltrates were used for training deep learning algorithms to segment lung regions and vessels. Seventy-two serial scans from 24 COVID-19 subjects were used to develop and test algorithms to detect and quantify the presence and progression of infiltrates associated with COVID-19. The algorithm included (1) automated lung boundary and vessel segmentation, (2) registration of the lung boundary between serial scans, (3) computerized identification of the pneumonitis regions, and (4) assessment of disease progression. Agreement between radiologist manually delineated regions and computer-detected regions was assessed using the Dice coefficient. Serial scans were registered and used to generate a heatmap visualizing the change between scans. Two radiologists, using a five-point Likert scale, subjectively rated heatmap accuracy in representing progression.ResultsThere was strong agreement between computer detection and the manual delineation of pneumonic regions with a Dice coefficient of 81% (CI 76-86%). In detecting large pneumonia regions (> 200 mm3), the algorithm had a sensitivity of 95% (CI 94-97%) and specificity of 84% (CI 81-86%). Radiologists rated 95% (CI 72 to 99) of heatmaps at least "acceptable" for representing disease progression.ConclusionThe preliminary results suggested the feasibility of using computer software to detect and quantify pneumonic regions associated with COVID-19 and to generate heatmaps that can be used to visualize and assess progression.Key points• Both computer vision and deep learning technology were used to develop computer software to quantify the presence and progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 depicted on CT images. • The computer software was tested using both quantitative experiments and subjective assessment. • The computer software has the potential to assist in the detection of the pneumonic regions, monitor disease progression, and assess treatment efficacy related to COVID-19.
| S-EPMC7755837 | biostudies-literature