Dataset Information

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas.

ABSTRACT: Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067-0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214-0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region.

SUBMITTER: Moore SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7544039 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas.

Moore Sean M SM Oidtman Rachel J RJ Soda K James KJ Siraj Amir S AS Reiner Robert C RC Barker Christopher M CM Perkins T Alex TA

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20200928 9

Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 ...[more]

PMID: 32986701

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundMosquito-borne and sexually transmitted Zika virus has become widespread across Central and South America and the Caribbean. Many Zika vaccine candidates are under active development.ObjectiveTo quantify the effect of Zika vaccine prioritization of females aged 9 to 49 years, followed by males aged 9 to 49 years, on incidence of prenatal Zika infections.DesignA compartmental model of Zika transmission between mosquitoes and humans was developed and calibrated to empirical estimates of country-specific mosquito density. Mosquitoes were stratified into susceptible, exposed, and infected groups; humans were stratified into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and vaccinated groups. Age-specific fertility rates, Zika sexual transmission, and country-specific demographics were incorporated.Setting34 countries and territories in the Americas with documented Zika outbreaks.Target populationMales and females aged 9 to 49 years.InterventionAge- and sex-targeted immunization using a Zika vaccine with 75% efficacy.MeasurementsAnnual prenatal Zika infections.ResultsFor a base-case vaccine efficacy of 75% and vaccination coverage of 90%, immunizing females aged 9 to 49 years (the World Health Organization target population) would reduce the incidence of prenatal infections by at least 94%, depending on the country-specific Zika attack rate. In regions where an outbreak is not expected for at least 10 years, vaccination of women aged 15 to 29 years is more efficient than that of women aged 30 years or older.LimitationPopulation-level modeling may not capture all local and neighborhood-level heterogeneity in mosquito abundance or Zika incidence.ConclusionA Zika vaccine of moderate to high efficacy may virtually eliminate prenatal infections through a combination of direct protection and transmission reduction. Efficiency of age-specific targeting of Zika vaccination depends on the timing of future outbreaks.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health.

Dataset Information

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas.

Publications

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets