Dataset Information

After the lockdown: simulating mobility, public health and economic recovery scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The spread of SARS-COV-2 has affected many economic and social systems. This paper aims at estimating the impact on regional productive systems in Italy of the interplay between the epidemic and the mobility restriction measures put in place to contain the contagion. We focus then on the economic consequences of alternative lockdown lifting schemes. We leverage a massive dataset of human mobility which describes daily movements of over four million individuals in Italy and we model the epidemic spreading through a metapopulation SIR model, which provides the fraction of infected individuals in each Italian district. To quantify economic backslashes this information is combined with socio-economic data. We then carry out a scenario analysis to model the transition to a post-lockdown phase and analyze the economic outcomes derived from the interplay between (a) the timing and intensity of the release of mobility restrictions and (b) the corresponding scenarios on the severity of virus transmission rates. Using a simple model for the spreading disease and parsimonious assumptions on the relationship between the infection and the associated economic backlashes, we show how different policy schemes tend to induce heterogeneous distributions of losses at the regional level depending on mobility restrictions. Our work shed lights on how recovery policies need to balance the interplay between mobility flows of disposable workers and the diffusion of contagion.

SUBMITTER: Spelta A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7550600 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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After the lockdown: simulating mobility, public health and economic recovery scenarios.

Spelta Alessandro A Flori Andrea A Pierri Francesco F Bonaccorsi Giovanni G Pammolli Fabio F

Scientific reports 20201012 1

The spread of SARS-COV-2 has affected many economic and social systems. This paper aims at estimating the impact on regional productive systems in Italy of the interplay between the epidemic and the mobility restriction measures put in place to contain the contagion. We focus then on the economic consequences of alternative lockdown lifting schemes. We leverage a massive dataset of human mobility which describes daily movements of over four million individuals in Italy and we model the epidemic ...[more]

PMID: 33046737

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Projection analyses can provide estimates of the future health burden of increasing BMI and represent a relevant and useful tool for public health planning. Our study presents long-term (2013-2030) projections of the prevalence and numbers of individuals by BMI category for adult men and women in Quebec. Three applications of projections to estimate outcomes more directly pertinent to public health planning, as well as an in-depth discussion of limits, are provided with the aim of encouraging greater use of projection analyses by public health officers. METHODS: The weighted compositional regression method is applied to prevalence time series derived from sixteen cross-sectional survey cycles, for scenarios of linear change and deceleration. Estimation of the component of projected change potentially amenable to intervention, future health targets and the projected impact on type 2 diabetes, were done. RESULTS: Obesity prevalence in Quebec is projected to rise steadily from 2013 to 2030 in both men (from 18.0-19.4% to 22.2-30.4%) and women (from 15.5-16.3% to 18.2-22.4%). Corresponding projected numbers of obese individuals are (579,000-625,000 to 790,000-1,084,000) in men and (514,000-543,000 to 661,000-816,000) in women. These projected increases are found to be primarily an 'epidemiologic' rather than 'demographic' phenomenon and thus potentially amenable to public health intervention. Assessment of obesity targets for 2020 illustrates the necessity of using projected rather than current prevalence; for example a targeted 2% drop in obesity prevalence relative to 2013 translates into a 3.6-5.4% drop relative to 2020 projected levels. Type 2 diabetes is projected to increase from 6.9% to 9.2-10.1% in men and from 5.7% to 7.1-7.5% in women, from 2011-2012 to 2030. A substantial proportion of this change (25-44% for men, and 27-43% for women) is attributable to the changing BMI distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity in Quebec is projected to increase and should therefore continue to be a public health priority. Application of projections to estimate the proportion of change potentially amenable to intervention, feasible health targets, and future chronic disease prevalence are demonstrated. Projection analyses have limitations, but represent a pertinent tool for public health planning.

Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of healthcare-acquired infections (HAI) and rising levels of antimicrobial resistance places significant economic and public health burdens on modern healthcare systems. A group of highly drug resistant pathogens known as the ESKAPE pathogens, along with C. difficile, are the leading causes of HAIs. Interactions between patients, healthcare workers, and environmental conditions impact disease transmission. Studying pathogen transfer under varying contact scenarios in a controlled manner is critical for understanding transmission and disinfectant strategies. In lieu of human subject research, this method has the potential to contribute to modeling the routes of pathogen transmission in healthcare settings.MethodsTo overcome these challenges, we have developed a method that utilizes a synthetic skin surrogate to model both direct (skin-to-skin) and indirect (skin-to fomite-to skin) pathogen transfer between infected patients and healthy healthcare workers. This surrogate material includes a background microbiome community simulating typical human skin flora to more accurately mimic the effects of natural flora during transmission events.ResultsWe demonstrate the ability to modulate individual bacterial concentrations within this microbial community to mimic bacterial concentrations previously reported on the hands of human subjects. We also explore the effect of various decontamination approaches on pathogen transfer between human subjects, such as the use of handwashing or surface disinfectants. Using this method, we identify a potential outlier, S. aureus, that may persist and retain viability in specific transfer conditions better than the overall microbial community during decontamination events.ConclusionsOur work describes the development of an in vitro method that uses a synthetic skin surrogate with a defined background microbiota to simulate skin-to-skin and skin-to fomite-to skin contact scenarios. These results illustrate the value of simulating a holistic microbial community for transfer studies by elucidating differences in different pathogen transmission rates and resistance to common decontamination practices. We believe this method will contribute to improvements in pathogen transmission modeling in healthcare settings and increase our ability to assess the risk associated with HAIs, although additional research is required to establish the degree of correlation of pathogen transmission by skin or synthetic alternatives.

Project description:Demand side interventions, such as dietary change, can significantly contribute towards the achievement of 2030 national sustainable development goals. However, most previous studies analysing the consequences of dietary change focus on a single dimension of sustainability (e.g., environment) using a limited number of indicators and dietary scenarios. A multi-dimension and multi-indicator analysis can identify the potential trade-offs. Here, starting from the current food consumption data (year 2011), we first designed nine alternative dietary scenarios (healthy Swiss diet, healthy global diet, vegetarian, vegan, pescatarian, flexitarian, protein-oriented and meat-oriented diets and a food greenhouse gas tax diet). Next we calculated three nutritional quality (nutrient balance score, disqualifying nutrient score, percent population with adequate nutrition), five environmental (greenhouse gas, water, land, nitrogen and phosphorus use), one economic (daily food expenditure) and one human health indicator (DALYs) for current and alternative diets. We found that transition towards a healthy diet following the guidelines of Swiss society of nutrition is the most sustainable option and is projected to result in 36% lesser environmental footprint, 33% lesser expenditure and 2.67% lower adverse health outcome (DALYs) compared with the current diet. On the other extreme, transition towards a meat or protein oriented diet can lead to large increases in diet related adverse health outcomes, environmental footprint, daily food expenditure and a reduction in intakes of essential nutrients (for Vitamin C, Fibre, Potassium and Calcium). We found that shifting to the vegetarian and vegan diet scenarios might lead to a reduction in intakes of certain micronutrients currently supplied primarily by animal-sourced foods (Vitamin B12, Choline and Calcium). Results show that achieving a sustainable diet would entail a high reduction in the intake of meat and vegetable oils and a moderate reduction in cereals, roots and fish products and at the same time increased intake of legumes, nuts, seeds, fruits and vegetables. We identify several current data and research gaps that need to be filled in order to get more accurate results. Overall, our analysis underscores the need to consider multiple indicators while assessing the dietary sustainability and provides a template to conduct such studies in other countries and settings. Future efforts should focus on assessing the potential of different interventions and policies that can help transition the population from current to sustainable dietary patterns.

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After the lockdown: simulating mobility, public health and economic recovery scenarios.

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After the lockdown: simulating mobility, public health and economic recovery scenarios.

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