Three Patients with COVID-19 and Pulmonary Tuberculosis, Wuhan, China, January-February 2020.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yao Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7588523 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.
| S-EPMC7360469 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We report three clusters related with potential pre-symptomatic transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) between January and February 2020 in Shanghai, China. Investigators interviewed suspected COVID-19 cases to collect epidemiological information, including demographic characteristics, illness onset, hospital visits, close contacts, activities' trajectories between 14 days before illness onset and isolation, and exposure histories. Respiratory specimens of suspected cases were collected and tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. The interval between the onset of illness in the primary case and the last contact of the secondary case with the primary case in our report was 1 to 7 days. In Cluster 1 (five cases), illness onset in the five secondary cases was 2 to 5 days after the last contact with the primary case. In Cluster 2 (five cases) and Cluster 3 (four cases), the illness onset in secondary cases occurred prior to or on the same day as the onset in the primary cases. The study provides empirical evidence for transmission of COVID-19 during the incubation period and indicates that pre-symptomatic person-to-person transmission can occur following sufficient exposure to confirmed COVID-19 cases. The potential pre-symptomatic person-to-person transmission puts forward higher requirements for prevention and control measures.
| S-EPMC7441604 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatient delay of COVID-19 patients occurs frequently, which poses a challenge to the overall epidemic situation. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the extent of patient delay, explore its factors, and investigate the effects of patient interval on epidemic situation.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted with 136 COVID-19 patients in Tianjin, China. Factors associated with patient delay were explored using logistic regression models. The relationship was investigated by spearman correlation analysis and mean absolute error between patient interval of lagging days and epidemic situation.ResultsThe factors associated with patient delay of COVID-19 patients were mainly the imported cases, the first presentation to a tertiary hospital, close contacts and spatial accessibility to fever clinic. The longer the patient intervals of lagging days, the greater the number of new-onset and confirmed cases in 3-4 and 5-7 days after the first day symptoms, respectively.ConclusionIdentification and quarantine of close contacts, promoting the spatial accessibility to fever clinics and creating public awareness are crucial to shortening patient delays to flat the curve for COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8580809 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
| S-EPMC7258458 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.AimOur objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.MethodsWe estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.ResultsThe median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.ConclusionThe high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.
| S-EPMC7545819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:From January 21 through February 23, 2020, public health agencies detected 14 U.S. cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all related to travel from China (1,2). The first nontravel-related U.S. case was confirmed on February 26 in a California resident who had become ill on February 13 (3). Two days later, on February 28, a second nontravel-related case was confirmed in the state of Washington (4,5). Examination of four lines of evidence provides insight into the timing of introduction and early transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the United States before the detection of these two cases. First, syndromic surveillance based on emergency department records from counties affected early by the pandemic did not show an increase in visits for COVID-19-like illness before February 28. Second, retrospective SARS-CoV-2 testing of approximately 11,000 respiratory specimens from several U.S. locations beginning January 1 identified no positive results before February 20. Third, analysis of viral RNA sequences from early cases suggested that a single lineage of virus imported directly or indirectly from China began circulating in the United States between January 18 and February 9, followed by several SARS-CoV-2 importations from Europe. Finally, the occurrence of three cases, one in a California resident who died on February 6, a second in another resident of the same county who died February 17, and a third in an unidentified passenger or crew member aboard a Pacific cruise ship that left San Francisco on February 11, confirms cryptic circulation of the virus by early February. These data indicate that sustained, community transmission had begun before detection of the first two nontravel-related U.S. cases, likely resulting from the importation of a single lineage of virus from China in late January or early February, followed by several importations from Europe. The widespread emergence of COVID-19 throughout the United States after February highlights the importance of robust public health systems to respond rapidly to emerging infectious threats.
| S-EPMC7315848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hebei Province was affected by two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak waves during the period 22 January 2020 through 27 February 2020 (wave 1) and 2 January 2021 through 14 February 2021 (wave 2). To evaluate and compare the epidemiological characteristics, containment delay, cluster events and social activity, as well as non-pharmaceutical interventions of the two COVID-19 outbreak waves, we examined real-time update information on all COVID-19-confirmed cases from a publicly available database. Wave 1 was closely linked with the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, whereas wave 2 was triggered, to a certain extent, by the increasing social activities such as weddings, multi-household gatherings and church events during the slack agricultural period. In wave 2, the epidemic spread undetected in the rural areas, and people living in the rural areas had a higher incidence rate than those living in the urban areas (5.3 vs. 22.0 per 1 000 000). Furthermore, Rt was greater than 1 in the early stage of the two outbreak waves, and decreased substantially after massive non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented. In China's 'new-normal' situation, development of targeted and effective intervention remains key for COVID-19 control in consideration of the potential threat of new coronavirus strains.
| S-EPMC8485049 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was found to be the causative microorganism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which started to spread in Wuhan, China. This study was to evaluate the effectiveness of questionnaire, symptoms-based screening, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening of returnees from COVID-19-endemic areas on a chartered flight, to examine the proportion of infected persons and the proportion of asymptomatic persons among infected persons who returned from Wuhan.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was done in 7 tertiary medical institutions in Japan. A total of 566 Japanese who returned from Wuhan participated in the study.ResultsOverall, 11 of the 566 passengers had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result for pharyngeal swabs and 6 were asymptomatic. Only fever differed between SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative individuals (P < .043). Six of the 11 PCR-positive individuals were asymptomatic; 4 remained positive on day 10, and 1 asymptomatic person tested positive up to day 27. Two of the 11 were negative on the first PCR test and positive on the second.ConclusionsOur results will be important insights on screening returnees from locked-down cities, as well as providing important data on the proportion of asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. A 13-day observation period and a second round of PCR may be effective to screen patients, including asymptomatic infections.
| S-EPMC7337761 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. The Chinese government has implemented containment strategies of city-wide lockdowns, screening at airports and train stations, and isolation of suspected patients; however, the cumulative case count keeps growing every day. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for modelers, as limited data are available on the early growth trajectory, and the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus are yet to be fully elucidated. We use phenomenological models that have been validated during previous outbreaks to generate and assess short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed reported cases in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, and for the overall trajectory in China, excluding the province of Hubei. We collect daily reported cumulative confirmed cases for the 2019-nCoV outbreak for each Chinese province from the National Health Commission of China. Here, we provide 5, 10, and 15 day forecasts for five consecutive days, February 5th through February 9th, with quantified uncertainty based on a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model. Our most recent forecasts reported here, based on data up until February 9, 2020, largely agree across the three models presented and suggest an average range of 7409-7496 additional confirmed cases in Hubei and 1128-1929 additional cases in other provinces within the next five days. Models also predict an average total cumulative case count between 37,415 and 38,028 in Hubei and 11,588-13,499 in other provinces by February 24, 2020. Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both Hubei and other provinces have remained relatively stable in the last three reporting dates (February 7th - 9th). We also observe that each of the models predicts that the epidemic has reached saturation in both Hubei and other provinces. Our findings suggest that the containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission and that the epidemic growth has slowed in recent days.
| S-EPMC7033348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We report two cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in travellers from Wuhan, China to Thailand. Both were independent introductions on separate flights, discovered with thermoscanners and confirmed with RT-PCR and genome sequencing. Both cases do not seem directly linked to the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei but the viral genomes are identical to four other sequences from Wuhan, suggesting early spread within the city already in the first week of January.
| S-EPMC7055038 | biostudies-literature