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A Personalized Prediction Model for Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

ABSTRACT: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) remains the only potentially curative option for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Mortality after HCT is high, with deaths related to relapse or transplant-related complications. Thus, identifying patients who may or may not benefit from HCT is clinically important. We identified 1514 patients with MDS enrolled in the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Registry and had their peripheral blood samples sequenced for the presence of 129 commonly mutated genes in myeloid malignancies. A random survival forest algorithm was used to build the model, and the accuracy of the proposed model was assessed by concordance index. The median age of the entire cohort was 59 years. The most commonly mutated genes were ASXL1(20%), TP53 (19%), DNMT3A (15%), and TET2 (12%). The algorithm identified the following variables prior to HCT that impacted overall survival: age, TP53 mutations, absolute neutrophils count, cytogenetics per International Prognostic Scoring System-Revised, Karnofsky performance status, conditioning regimen, donor age, WBC count, hemoglobin, diagnosis of therapy-related MDS, peripheral blast percentage, mutations in RAS pathway, JAK2 mutation, number of mutations/sample, ZRSR2, and CUX1 mutations. Different variables impacted the risk of relapse post-transplant. The new model can provide survival probability at different time points that are specific (personalized) for a given patient based on the clinical and mutational variables that are listed above. The outcomes' probability at different time points may aid physicians and patients in their decision regarding HCT.

SUBMITTER: Nazha A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7609542 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) is the only curative treatment for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The proportion of MDS patients referred for transplantation evaluation, those undergoing transplantation, and the reasons for not undergoing transplantation are unknown. In this retrospective analysis, predefined HCT eligibility and indications criteria were applied to 362 unselected patients with newly diagnosed MDS seen by leukemia faculty between 2008 and 2015 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Two hundred ninety-four patients (81%) were deemed eligible for transplantation and among these, transplantation was considered indicated in 244 (83%). Of these, 158 of 244 (65%) were referred for transplantation evaluation at a median of 3.9 months from diagnosis. Overall 120 of 362 (33%) underwent transplantation at a median of 7.7 months from diagnosis. Metastatic solid-organ malignancy was the major reason for transplantation ineligibility (54%), and death due to MDS, which occurred in 41% of candidates who did not undergo transplantation, was the major reason for not undergoing transplantation. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of referral for transplantation evaluation included age ≥65 (P < .001), ≥2 comorbidities (P = .008), intermediate-1/low risk MDS (P < .001), <5% blasts at diagnosis (overall P < .001), having Medicare/Medicaid health insurance (P < .001), not being married (P = .017), and diagnosis between 2008 and 2011 (P = .035). On multivariate analysis adjusting for all of the previous factors, diagnosis between 2008 and 2011 (P < .001), age ≥65 (P = .001), and <5% blasts at diagnosis (overall P = .031) were associated with a lower likelihood of referral for transplantation evaluation. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing transplantation included age ≥65 (P < .001), ≥2 comorbidities (P = .003), intermediate-1/low risk MDS (P < .001), <5% blasts (overall P < .001), very low/low/intermediate risk International Prognostic Scoring System-revised karyotype (P = .018), and having Medicare/Medicaid health insurance (P < .001). In multivariate analysis adjusting for all of the previous factors, age ≥65 (P = .021), presence of ≥2 comorbidities (P = .018), and <5% blasts (overall P = .011) were associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing transplantation. The results highlight that transplantation for MDS remains underutilized, particularly for candidates over the age of 65.

Project description:Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a heterogeneous group of hematopoietic stem cell disorders for which allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is currently the sole curative treatment. Epigenetic lesions are considered a major pathogenetic determinant in many cancers, and in MDS, epigenetic-based interventions have emerged as life-prolonging therapies. However, the impact of epigenomic aberrations on HCT outcomes among patients with MDS are not well understood. We hypothesized that epigenomic signatures in MDS patients before undergoing HCT serve as a novel prognostic indicator of the risk of post-HCT MDS relapse. To evaluate these epigenomic signatures in MDS patients, we analyzed reduced representation bisulfite sequencing profiles in a matched case-control population of 94 patients. Among these HCT recipients, 47 patients with MDS who relapsed post-HCT (cases) were matched 1:1 to patients with MDS who did not relapse (controls). Only patients with wild-type TP53, RAS pathway, and JAK2 mutations were included in this study to promote the discovery of novel factors. Cases were matched with controls based on conditioning regimen intensity, age, sex, Revised International Prognostic Scoring System, Karnofsky Performance Status, graft type, and donor type. Pre-HCT whole-blood samples from cases and matched controls were obtained from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research repository. We comprehensively identified differentially methylated regions (DMRs) by comparing the methylation patterns among matched cases and controls. Our findings show that cases displayed more hyper-DMRs pretransplantation compared with controls, even after adjusting for pre-HCT use of hypomethylating agents. Hyper-DMRs specific to cases were mapped to the transcription start site of 218 unique genes enriched in 5 different signaling pathways that may serve as regions of interest and factors to consider as prognostic determinants of post-HCT relapse in MDS patients. Interestingly, although patients selected for this cohort were wild-type for the TP53 gene, cases showed significantly greater levels of methylation at TP53 compared with controls. These findings indicate that previously identified prognostic genes for MDS, such as TP53, may affect disease relapse not only through genetic mutation, but also through epigenetic methylation mechanisms.

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A Personalized Prediction Model for Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant in Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

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