Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study.
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SUBMITTER: Auld AF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7650165 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study.
Auld Andrew F AF Fielding Katherine K Agizew Tefera T Maida Alice A Mathoma Anikie A Boyd Rosanna R Date Anand A Pals Sherri L SL Bicego George G Liu Yuliang Y Shiraishi Ray W RW Ehrenkranz Peter P Serumola Christopher C Mathebula Unami U Alexander Heather H Charalambous Salome S Emerson Courtney C Rankgoane-Pono Goabaone G Pono Pontsho P Finlay Alyssa A Shepherd James C JC Holmes Charles C Ellerbrock Tedd V TV Grant Alison D AD
BMC medicine 20201109 1
<h4>Background</h4>Clinical scores to determine early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality risk have not been developed for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to 70% of people living with HIV. In the absence of validated scores, WHO eligibility criteria (EC) for ART care intensification are CD4 < 200/μL or WHO stage III/IV.<h4>Methods</h4>We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult ART enrollees to develop CD4-independent and CD4-dependent multivariable prognostic models for 6-month mort ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of and mortality from HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB) in hospital inpatients in Africa remains unacceptably high. Currently, there is a lack of tools to identify those at high risk of early mortality who may benefit from adjunctive interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk score to predict mortality in high-burden, low-resource settings.Methods and findingsA cohort of HIV-positive adults with laboratory-confirmed TB from the STAMP TB screening trial (Malawi and South Africa) was used to derive a clinical risk score using multivariable predictive modelling, considering factors at hospital admission (including urine lipoarabinomannan [LAM] detection) thought to be associated with 2-month mortality. Performance was evaluated internally and then externally validated using independent cohorts from 2 other studies (LAM-RCT and a Médecins Sans Frontières [MSF] cohort) from South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Kenya. The derivation cohort included 315 patients enrolled from October 2015 and September 2017. Their median age was 36 years (IQR 30-43), 45.4% were female, median CD4 cell count at admission was 76 cells/μl (IQR 23-206), and 80.2% (210/262) of those who knew they were HIV-positive at hospital admission were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Two-month mortality was 30% (94/315), and mortality was associated with the following factors included in the score: age 55 years or older, male sex, being ART experienced, having severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 80 g/l), being unable to walk unaided, and having a positive urinary Determine TB LAM Ag test (Alere). The score identified patients with a 46.4% (95% CI 37.8%-55.2%) mortality risk in the high-risk group compared to 12.5% (95% CI 5.7%-25.4%) in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). The odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-15.2) in high-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (p < 0.001). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, p = 0.78) were good in the derivation cohort, and similar in the external validation cohort (complete cases n = 372, c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.61-0.74]). The validation cohort included 644 patients between January 2013 and August 2015. Median age was 36 years, 48.9% were female, and median CD4 count at admission was 61 (IQR 21-145). OR for mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 2.2-9.5) for high compared to low-risk patients (complete cases n = 372, p < 0.001). The score also predicted patients at higher risk of death both pre- and post-discharge. A simplified score (any 3 or more of the predictors) performed equally well. The main limitations of the scores were their imperfect accuracy, the need for access to urine LAM testing, modest study size, and not measuring all potential predictors of mortality (e.g., tuberculosis drug resistance).ConclusionsThis risk score is capable of identifying patients who could benefit from enhanced clinical care, follow-up, and/or adjunctive interventions, although further prospective validation studies are necessary. Given the scale of HIV/TB morbidity and mortality in African hospitals, better prognostic tools along with interventions could contribute towards global targets to reduce tuberculosis mortality.
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Project description:Among 35 million people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in 2013, only 37% had access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite global concerted efforts to provide the universal access to the ART treatment, the ART coverage varies among countries and regions. At present, there is a lack of systematic empirical analyses on factors that determine the ART coverage. Therefore, the current study aimed to identify the determinants of the ART coverage in 41 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. It employed statistical analyses for this purpose. Four elements, namely, the HIV prevalence, the level of national income, the level of medical expenditure and the number of nurses, were hypothesised to determine the ART coverage. The findings revealed that among the four proposed determinants only the HIV prevalence had a statistically significant impact on the ART coverage. In other words, the HIV prevalence was the sole determinant of the ART coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Project description:BackgroundThe integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens.MethodsWe updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted.FindingsConsidering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain.InterpretationIn the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Project description:Mortality rates are high in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa, especially during the first few months of treatment. Tuberculosis (TB) has been identified as a major underlying cause. Under routine programme conditions, between 5 and 40% of adult patients enrolling in ART services have a baseline diagnosis of TB. There is also a high TB incidence during the first few months of ART (much of which is prevalent disease missed by baseline screening) and long-term rates remain several-folds higher than background. We identify three groups of patients entering ART programmes for which different interventions are required to reduce TB-related deaths. First, diagnostic screening is needed in patients who have undiagnosed active TB so that timely anti-TB treatment can be started. This may be greatly facilitated by new diagnostic assays such as the Xpert MTB/RIF assay. Second, patients with a diagnosis of active TB need optimized case management, which includes early initiation of ART (with timing now defined by randomized controlled trials), trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole prophylaxis and treatment of comorbidity. Third, all remaining patients who are TB-free at enrolment have high ongoing risk of developing TB and require preventive interventions, including optimized immune recovery (with ART ideally started early in the course of HIV infection), isoniazid preventive therapy and infection control to reduce infection risk. Further specific measures are needed to address multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). Finally, scale-up of all these interventions requires nationally and locally tailored models of care that are patient-centred and provide integrated healthcare delivery for TB, HIV and other comorbidities.
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Project description:ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to identify the range and frequency of patient-reported barriers and facilitators to antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).DesignStudies from 2005 to 2016 were identified by searching 10 electronic databases and through additional hand and web-searching.MethodsInclusion criteria were HIV-positive adults taking ART based in any SSA country, qualitative study or quantitative survey and included at least one patient-reported barrier or facilitator to ART adherence. Exclusion criteria were only including data from treatment-naive patients initiating ART, only single-dose treatment, participants residing outside of SSA and reviews.ResultsAfter screening 11 283 records, 154 studies (161 papers) were included in this review. Forty-three barriers and 30 facilitators were reported across 24 SSA countries. The most frequently identified barriers across studies were forgetting (n = 76), lack of access to adequate food (n = 72), stigma and discrimination (n = 68), side effects (n = 67) and being outside the house or travelling (n = 60). The most frequently identified facilitators across studies were social support (n = 60), reminders (n = 55), feeling better or healthier after taking ART (n = 35), disclosing their HIV status (n = 26) and having a good relationship with a health provider (n = 22).ConclusionThis review addresses the gap in knowledge by collating all the patient-reported barriers and facilitators to ART adherence in SSA. Current barriers measures need to be adapted or new tools developed to include the wide variety of factors identified. The factors that have the greatest impact need to be isolated so interventions are developed that reduce the barriers and enhance the facilitators.
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Project description:BackgroundOver 18 million adults have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-poor settings; however, mortality and lost-to-follow-up rates continue to be high among patients in their first year after treatment start. Clinical decision tools are needed to identify patients at high risk for poor outcomes in order to provide individualized risk assessment and intervention. This study aimed to develop and externally validate risk prediction tools that estimate the probability of dying or of being lost to follow-up (LTF) during the year after starting ART.MethodsWe used a derivation cohort of 7,031 adults age 15-70 years initiating ART from 2007 to 2013 at 6 clinics in Haiti; 242 (3.5%) had documented death and 1,521 (21.6%) were LTF at 1 year after starting ART. The following routinely collected data were used as predictors in two logistic regression models (one to predict death and another to predict LTF): age, gender, weight, CD4 count, WHO Stage, and diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). The validation cohort consisted of 1,835 adults initiating ART at a different HIV clinic in Haiti during 2012. We assessed model discrimination by measuring the C-statistic, and measured model calibration by how closely the predicted probabilities approximated actual probabilities of the two outcomes. We derived a nomogram and a point-based risk score from the predictive models.FindingsThe model predicting death within the year after starting ART had a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.81). There was no evidence for significant overfitting and the predictions were well calibrated. The strongest predictors of 1-year mortality were male gender, low weight, low CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and the absence of TB. In the validation cohort, the C-statistic was 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). A point-based risk score for death had a C-statistic 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76) and categorizes patients as low risk (<2% risk of death), average risk (3-4%), and high-risk (8-10%) and very high-risk (14-19%) with likelihood ratios to be used in settings where the baseline risk is different from our study population. The model predicting LTF did not discriminate well (C-statistic 0.59).ConclusionsA simple risk-score using routinely collected data can predict 1-year mortality after ART initiation for HIV-positive adults in Haiti. However, predicting lost to follow-up using routinely collected data was not as successful. The next step is to assess whether use of this risk score can identify patients who need tailored services to reduce mortality in resource-poor settings such as Haiti.
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