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Identifying and supporting students at risk of failing the National Medical Licensure Examination in Japan using a predictive pass rate.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Students who fail to pass the National Medical Licensure Examination (NMLE) pose a huge problem from the educational standpoint of healthcare professionals. In the present study, we developed a formula of predictive pass rate (PPR)" which reliably predicts medical students who will fail the NMLE in Japan, and provides an adequate academic support for them. METHODS:Six consecutive cohorts of 531 medical students between 2012 and 2017, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, were investigated. Using 7 variables before the admission to medical school and 10 variables after admission, we developed a prediction formula to obtain the PPR for the NMLE using logistic regression analysis. In a new cohort of 106 medical students in 2018, we applied the formula for PPR to them to confirm the capability of the PPR and predicted students who will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE. RESULTS:Medical students who passed the NMLE had the following characteristics: younger age at admission, graduates of high schools located in the surrounding area, high scores in the graduation examination and in the comprehensive computer-based test provided by the Common Achievement Test Organization in Japan. However, total score of examination in pre-clinical medical sciences and Pre-CC OSCE score in the 4th year were not correlated with the PPR. Ninety-one out of 531 students had a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE between 2012 and 2017 and 33 of these 91 students failed NMLE. Using the PPR, we predicted 12 out of 106 students will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE. Actually, five of these 12 students failed NMLE. CONCLUSIONS:The PPR can be used to predict medical students who have a higher probability of failing the NMLE. This prediction would enable focused support and guidance by faculty members. Prospective and longitudinal studies for larger and different cohorts would be necessary.

SUBMITTER: Tsunekawa K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7654142 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying and supporting students at risk of failing the National Medical Licensure Examination in Japan using a predictive pass rate.

Tsunekawa Koji K Suzuki Yasuyuki Y Shioiri Toshiki T

BMC medical education 20201110 1

<h4>Background</h4>Students who fail to pass the National Medical Licensure Examination (NMLE) pose a huge problem from the educational standpoint of healthcare professionals. In the present study, we developed a formula of predictive pass rate (PPR)" which reliably predicts medical students who will fail the NMLE in Japan, and provides an adequate academic support for them.<h4>Methods</h4>Six consecutive cohorts of 531 medical students between 2012 and 2017, Gifu University Graduate School of M ...[more]

PMID: 33167945

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Project description:BackgroundImperial College School of Medicine, London UK, introduced a new curriculum in 2019, with a focus on the GMC outcomes for graduates, and pedagogy best practice. The new curriculum included formative assessments, named engagement and feedback assessments (EFAs), to support learning, and attainment in the summative examinations. The aims of this study were to assess the validity of EFAs and to determine whether they have utility as a modified form of programmatic assessment to inform decision-making regarding possible interventions by measuring and analysing attendance at and performance in these formative events.MethodsSeven hundred and sixty-one students were included in the study and assessment results were included for academic years 2019/20 to 2020/21. Forty-one data points per student, (27 in Year 1 and 14 in Year 2) were used, to compare EFA scores with the summative performance. Attendance was monitored through engagement with the EFAs.ResultsCohort 1 (enrolled 2019): In year 1, EFAs were associated with summative exam scores (overall r = 0.63, p < 0.001). Year 2, EFA scores were also associated with summative scores (overall r = 0.57, p < 0.001), including the clinical practical assessment (r = 0.45, p < 0.001). Missing two or more EFAs was associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of failing one or more summative examinations in the first year (OR: 7.97, 95% CI 2.65-34.39) and second year (OR: 3.20, 95% CI 1.74-5.95). Missing more than two EFAs in their first year was also associated with a higher risk of failing a summative examination in the second year (OR: 2.47, 95% CI 1.33-4.71). Students who increased their attendance between year 1 and 2 fared better in summative assessment than those who maintained poor attendance, whereas those that reduced their attendance fared worse than those that maintained high attendance. Cohort 2 (enrolled 2020): Analysis of cohort 2 supported these findings and in this cohort missing two or more EFAs was again associated with an increased likelihood of failing a summative examination (OR = 4.00, 95% CI = 2.02-7.90).ConclusionOur EFA model has validity in predicting performance in summative assessments and can inform prospective interventions to support students' learning. Enhancing attendance and engagement can improve outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundExamination of arthroscopic skill requires evaluation tools that are valid and reliable with clear criteria for passing. The Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool was developed as a video-based assessment of technical skill with criteria for passing established by a panel of experts. The purpose of this study was to test the validity and reliability of the Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool as a pass-fail examination of arthroscopic skill.MethodsTwenty-eight residents and two sports medicine faculty members were recorded performing diagnostic knee arthroscopy on a left and right cadaveric specimen in our arthroscopic skills laboratory. Procedure videos were evaluated with use of the Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool by two raters blind to subject identity. Subjects were considered to pass the Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool when they attained scores of ≥ 3 on all eight assessment domains.ResultsThe raters agreed on a pass-fail rating for fifty-five of sixty videos rated with an interclass correlation coefficient value of 0.83. Ten of thirty participants were assigned passing scores by both raters for both diagnostic arthroscopies performed in the laboratory. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that logging more than eighty arthroscopic cases or performing more than thirty-five arthroscopic knee cases was predictive of attaining a passing Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool score on both procedures performed in the laboratory.ConclusionsThe Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool is valid and reliable as a pass-fail examination of diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee in the simulation laboratory.Clinical relevanceThis study demonstrates that the Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool may be a useful tool for pass-fail examination of diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee in the simulation laboratory. Further study is necessary to determine whether the Arthroscopic Surgery Skill Evaluation Tool can be used for the assessment of multiple arthroscopic procedures and whether it can be used to evaluate arthroscopic procedures performed in the operating room.

Dataset Information

Identifying and supporting students at risk of failing the National Medical Licensure Examination in Japan using a predictive pass rate.

Publications

Identifying and supporting students at risk of failing the National Medical Licensure Examination in Japan using a predictive pass rate.

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