Effects of Cocooning on Coronavirus Disease Rates after Relaxing Social Distancing.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7706923 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:As the first wave of COVID-19 recedes, policymakers are contemplating the relaxation of shelter-in-place orders. Using a model capturing high-risk populations and transmission rates estimated from hospitalization data, we find that postponing relaxation will only delay a second wave and cocooning vulnerable populations is needed to prevent overwhelming medical surges.
| S-EPMC7273277 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We study the spread of COVID-19 infections and deaths by county poverty level in the US. In the beginning of the pandemic, counties with either very low poverty levels or very high poverty levels reported the highest numbers of cases. A U-shaped relationship prevails for counties with high population density while among counties with low population density, only poorer counties report high incidence rates of COVID-19. Second, we discuss the pattern of infections spreading from higher to lower income counties. Third, we show that stay-at-home mandates caused significantly higher reductions in mobility in high income counties that experienced adverse weather shocks than counties that did not. These effects are not present in counties with high poverty rates. Using weather shocks in combination with stay-at-home mandates as an instrument for social distancing, we find that measures taken to promote social distancing helped curb infections in high income counties but not in low income counties. These results have important policy implications for containing the spread of infectious diseases in the future.
| S-EPMC7756168 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveSocial distancing policies are key in curtailing severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread, but their effectiveness is heavily contingent on public understanding and collective adherence. We studied public perception of social distancing through organic, large-scale discussion on Twitter.DesignRetrospective cross-sectional study.MethodsBetween March 27 and April 10, 2020, we retrieved English-only tweets matching two trending social distancing hashtags, #socialdistancing and #stayathome. We analyzed the tweets using natural language processing and machine-learning models, and we conducted a sentiment analysis to identify emotions and polarity. We evaluated the subjectivity of tweets and estimated the frequency of discussion of social distancing rules. We then identified clusters of discussion using topic modeling and associated sentiments.ResultsWe studied a sample of 574,903 tweets. For both hashtags, polarity was positive (mean, 0.148; SD, 0.290); only 15% of tweets had negative polarity. Tweets were more likely to be objective (median, 0.40; IQR, 0-0.6) with ~30% of tweets labeled as completely objective (labeled as 0 in range from 0 to 1). Approximately half of tweets (50.4%) primarily expressed joy and one-fifth expressed fear and surprise. Each correlated well with topic clusters identified by frequency including leisure and community support (ie, joy), concerns about food insecurity and quarantine effects (ie, fear), and unpredictability of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its implications (ie, surprise).ConclusionsConsidering the positive sentiment, preponderance of objective tweets, and topics supporting coping mechanisms, we concluded that Twitter users generally supported social distancing in the early stages of their implementation.
| S-EPMC7450231 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.
| S-EPMC7510701 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In South Korea, the coronavirus disease outbreak peaked at the end of February and subsided in mid-March. We analyzed the likely roles of social distancing in reducing transmission. Our analysis indicated that although transmission might persist in some regions, epidemics can be suppressed with less extreme measures than those taken by China.
| S-EPMC7588540 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At least 60 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per day is recommended for physical and mental health of adolescents. Schools are one of the most suitable places for promoting students' health as it is a place where vigorous physical activity occurs. However, the physical activity of students is threatened because schools are closed worldwide owing to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in 2019. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the physical fitness changes in 27,782 Korean adolescents during the pandemic and present alternative education and health policies to the school. We included 29,882 middle school students (age: 13-15 years; males: 14,941, females: 12,841) in Korea from 2019 to 2021 . Participants' physical fitness at school was measured using the physical activity promotion system (PAPS) manual developed to measure students' physical fitness. Physical fitness variables included body mass index (BMI), 20 m shuttle run, handgrip strength, sit-and-reach, and 50 m run. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the BMI and cardiorespiratory endurance of Korean middle school students. Specifically, male students' BMI increased, while body composition, cardiorespiratory endurance, and grip strength decreased significantly. Female students showed significant decreases in BMI and sit-and-reach test scores. It is clear that the physical fitness level of adolescents decreased by a greater degree after the COVID-19 pandemic than before, and the decrease in the physical fitness level of male students was noticeable. Therefore, a lesson strategy should be prepared that considers the contents and methods of physical education classes to improve the physical fitness level of male and female adolescents. Fitness-based classes suitable for online methods should be urgently added as alternative physical education classes to prepare for the second COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, it is necessary to create an environment in which physical activity is a possibility in physical education classes, in any situation using artificial intelligence and virtual reality.
| S-EPMC9762246 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, social distancing was effective in controlling disease spread across South Korea. The impact of national social distancing on the spread of common respiratory virus infections has rarely been investigated. We evaluated the weekly proportion of negative respiratory virus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results and weekly positive rates of each respiratory virus during the social distancing period (10th-41st weeks of 2020) and the corresponding period in different years, utilizing the national respiratory virus surveillance dataset reported by the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The proportions of negative respiratory virus PCR test results increased up to 87.8% and 86.1% during level 3 and level 2 of the social distancing period, respectively. The higher the level of social distancing, the higher the proportion of negative respiratory virus PCR test results. During the social distancing period, the mean weekly positive rates for parainfluenza virus, influenza virus, human coronavirus, and human metapneumovirus were significantly lower than those during the same period in 2015-2019 (0.1% vs. 9.3%, P <0.001; 0.1% vs. 7.2%, P <0.001; 0.4% vs. 2.3%, P <0.001; and 0.2% vs. 5.3%, P <0.001, respectively). The mean positive rate for rhinovirus/enterovirus during level 3 social distancing was lower than that in the same period in 2015-2019 (8.5% vs. 19.0%, P <0.001), but the rate during level 1 social distancing was higher than that in the same period in 2015-2019 (38.3% vs. 19.4%, P <0.001). The national application of social distancing reduced the spread of common respiratory virus infections during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC8202938 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Social distancing is an important measure in controlling epidemics. This paper presents a simple theoretical model focussed on the implications of the wide range in interaction rates between individuals, both within the workplace and in social settings. The model is based on well-mixed populations and so is not intended for studying geographic spread. The model shows that epidemic growth rate is largely determined by the upper interactivity quantiles of society, implying that the most efficient methods of epidemic control are interaction capping approaches rather than overall reductions in interaction. The theoretical model can also be applied to look at aspects of the dynamics of epidemic progression under various scenarios. The theoretical model suggests that with no intervention herd immunity would be achieved with a lower overall infection rate than if variation in interaction rate is ignored, because by this stage almost all the most interactive members of society would have had the infection; however the overall mortality with such an approach is very high. Scenarios for mitigation and suppression suggest that, by using interactivity capping, it should be possible to control an epidemic without extreme sanctions on the majority of the population if R0 of the uncontrolled infection is 2.4. However to control the infection rate to a specific level will always require measures to be switched on and off and for this reason elimination is likely to be a less costly policy in the long run. While social distancing alone can be used for elimination, it would not on its own be an efficient mechanism to prevent reinfection. The use of robust testing, quarantining, and contact tracing would strengthen any social distancing measures, speed up elimination, and be a better tool for the prevention of infection or reinfection. Because the analysis presented here is theoretical, and not data-driven, it is intended to be a stimulus for further data-collection, particularly on individual interactivity levels, and for more comprehensive modelling which takes account of the type of heterogeneity discussed here. While there are some clear lessons from the simple model presented here, policy makers should have these tested and validated by epidemiological specialists before acting on them.
| S-EPMC7737959 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe absence of effective antiviral medications and vaccines increased the focus on non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors for mitigating against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To examine the current status of non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors practiced during the COVID-19 outbreak and factors affecting behavioral activities, we compared to the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea.MethodsThis was a serial cross-sectional population-based study in Korea with four surveys conducted on June 2 and 25, 2015 (MERS-CoV surveys), and February 4, and April 2, 2020 (COVID-19 surveys). Of 25,711 participants selected using random digit dialing numbers, 4,011 participants (aged ≥ 18 years) were successfully interviewed, for the 2020 COVID-19 (n = 2,002) and 2015 MERS-CoV (n = 2,009) epidemics were included. Participants were selected post-stratification by sex, age, and province. The total number of weighted cases in this survey equaled the total number of unweighted cases at the national level. We measured the levels of preventive behaviors (social distancing [avoiding physical contact with others]), and practicing transmission-reducing behaviors such as wearing face mask and handwashing.ResultsBetween the surveys, respondents who reported practicing social distancing increased from 41.9%-58.2% (MERS-CoV) to 83.4%-92.3% (COVID-19). The response rate for the four surveys ranged between 13.7% and 17.7%. Practicing transmission-reducing behaviors (wearing face masks and handwashing) at least once during COVID-19 (78.8%, 80.2%) also increased compared to that during MERS-CoV (15.5%, 60.3%). The higher affective risk perception groups were more likely to practice transmission-reducing measures (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24-4.81; 95 confidence interval, 1.76-6.96) during both COVID-19 and MERS-CoV.ConclusionThe study findings suggest markedly increased proportions of non-pharmaceutical behavioral practices evenly across all subgroups during the two different novel virus outbreaks in Korea. Strategic interventions are needed to attempt based on preventive behavior works.
| S-EPMC7295600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20-59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission.
| S-EPMC7392458 | biostudies-literature