Dataset Information

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

Methods and findings

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

Conclusions

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

SUBMITTER: Ricks S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7732057 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.

Ricks Saskia S Denkinger Claudia M CM Schumacher Samuel G SG Hallett Timothy B TB Arinaminpathy Nimalan N

PLoS medicine 20201211 12

<h4>Background</h4>Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipa ...[more]

PMID: 33306694

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Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a serious co-morbidity among children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and TB diagnosis remains particularly challenging in the very young. We explored whether, in a low HIV-prevalence setting, the detection of mycobacterial lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen in urine may assist TB diagnosis in SAM children, a pediatric population currently not included in LAM-testing recommendations. To that end, we assessed LAM test-positivity among SAM children with and without signs or symptoms of TB.MethodsA cross-sectional assessment (February 2016-August 2017) included children <5 years with SAM from an Intensive-Therapeutic-Feeding-Centre in Madaoua, Niger. Group 1: children with signs or symptoms suggestive of TB. Group 2: children without any sign or symptom of TB. Urine-specimens were subjected to DetermineTM TB-LAM lateral-flow-test (using a 4-grade intensity scale for positives). LAM-results were used for study purposes and not for patient management. Programmatic TB-diagnosis was primarily based on patients' clinical symptoms and TB contact history with no systematic access to X-ray or microbiological reference testing.Results102 (Group 1) and 100 children (Group 2) were included (median age 18 months, 59.4% male, 1.0% HIV-positive). In Group 1, 22 (21.6%) children were started on TB-treatment (probable TB) and none of the children in Group 2. LAM-positivity was 52.0% (53/102) and 37.0% (37/100) in Group 1 and 2, respectively. Low-intensity (Grade 1) LAM test-positivity was similarly high in both Groups (37.3% and 36.0%, respectively), while Grade 2 or 3-positives were mainly detected in Group 1 (Group 1: 14.7%, Group 2: 1.0%, p<0.001). When considering only Grades >1 as positive, LAM-testing detected 22.7% (95%CI: 7.8, 45.4) among probable TB cases, while 99% (95%CI: 94.6, 99.9) of unlikely TB cases (Group 2) tested negative.ConclusionThese findings suggest the potential utility of LAM urine testing in HIV-negative children with SAM. Determine LAM-positivity with Grades >1 may identify HIV-negative SAM children that are eligible for rapid TB-treatment initiation, though low-intensity (Grade 1) LAM-positive results may not be helpful in this way. Further studies in this specific pediatric population are warranted, including evaluations of new generation LAM tests.

Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a global burden, and this is likely to remain the case due to a lack of adequate and accurate point-of-care diagnostic tests. Obtaining good-quality sputum from the bottom of the respiratory tract of children is challenging. Lipoarabinomannan (LAM) is a specific component of the mycobacterial cell envelope that is excreted in the urine of people with active TB. This study aimed to assess the performance of different types of urine-based LAM antigen tests for the diagnosis of TB in children.MethodsRelevant databases were searched for studies that used urine-based LAM tests to diagnose TB in children. Study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were calculated using the random-effect model in STATA Version 16.0. Moreover, subgroup analysis was undertaken to hinder the heterogeneity of the studies.ResultsEleven articles were included in the final systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MTB-LAM-ELISA), Alere Determine TB LAM Ag (Alere LAM) test and the Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM (Fuji LAM) test in children aged <15 years with TB were 16.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.25-42.25] and 95.61% (95% CI 93.74-97.74); 45.90% (95% CI 40.40-51.40) and 80.42% (95% CI 69.39-91.46); and 52.32% (95% CI 35.03-69.62) and 89.37% (95% CI 82.88-95.86), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that the pooled sensitivity and specificity of MTB-LAM-ELISA, Alere LAM test and Fuji LAM test were 33.5% (95% CI 34.86-100) and 95.83% (95% CI 91.50-100); 46.59% (95% CI 32.98-60.19) and 76.45% (95% CI 57.07-95.82); and 57.89% (95% CI 48.44-67.35%) and 87.66% (95% CI 75.29-100), respectively, in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive children; and 3.35% (95% CI 1.61-8.31) and 96.0% (95% CI 93.88-98.11); 32.33% (95% CI 7.63-57.03) and 79.07% (95% CI 62.62-95.51); and 50.95% (95% CI 27.45-74.45) and 89.47% (95% CI 84.72-94.22), respectively, in HIV-negative children.ConclusionThe Fuji LAM and Alere LAM tests may be useful for the diagnosis of TB in children in conjunction with other more sensitive and specific tests, although a prospective study in relevant clinical settings is needed to evaluate this. There is a need for more evidence-based data on the use of these rapid diagnostic tools to diagnose TB in children independent of HIV status.

Project description:BackgroundMany children who develop tuberculosis are thought to be missed by diagnostic and reporting systems. We aimed to estimate paediatric tuberculosis incidence and underreporting between 2013 and 2019 in countries representing more than 99% of the global tuberculosis burden.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model of paediatric tuberculosis natural history, accounting for key mechanisms and risk factors for infectious exposure (HIV, malnutrition, and BCG non-vaccination), the probability of infection given exposure, and progression to disease among infected individuals. We extracted paediatric population estimates from UN Population Division data, and we used WHO estimates for adult tuberculosis incidence rates. We parameterised this model for 185 countries and calibrated it using data from countries with stronger case detection and reporting systems. Using this model, we estimated trends in paediatric incidence, and the proportion of these cases that are diagnosed and reported (case detection ratio [CDR]) for each country, age group, and year.FindingsFor 2019, we estimated 997 500 (95% credible interval [CrI] 868 700-1 163 100) incident tuberculosis cases among children, with 481 000 cases (398 400-587 400) among those aged 0-4 years and 516 500 cases (442 900-608 000) among those aged 5-14 years. The paediatric CDR was estimated to be lower in children aged 0-4 years (41%, 95% CrI 34-50) than in those aged 5-14 years (63%, 53-75) and varied widely between countries. Estimated CDRs increased substantially over the study period, from 18% (15-20) in 2013 to 53% (45-60) in 2019, with improvements concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific regions. Over the study period, global incidence was estimated to have declined slowly at an average annual rate of 1·52% (1·42-1·66).InterpretationPaediatric tuberculosis causes substantial morbidity and mortality, and these data indicate that cases (and, thus, probably associated mortality) are currently substantially underreported. These findings reinforce the need to ensure prompt diagnosis and care for children developing tuberculosis, strengthen reporting systems, and invest in research to develop more accurate and easy-to-use diagnostics for paediatric tuberculosis in high-burden settings.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Simple immune capture assays that detect mycobacterial lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen in urine are promising new tools for the diagnosis of HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV-TB). In addition, however, recent prospective cohort studies of patients with HIV-TB have demonstrated associations between LAM in the urine and increased mortality risk during TB treatment, indicating an additional utility of urinary LAM as a prognostic marker. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the evidence concerning the strength of this relationship in adults with HIV-TB in sub-Saharan Africa, thereby quantifying the assay's prognostic value. METHODS:We searched MEDLINE and Embase databases using comprehensive search terms for 'HIV', 'TB', 'LAM' and 'sub-Saharan Africa'. Identified studies were reviewed and selected according to predefined criteria. RESULTS:We identified 10 studies eligible for inclusion in this systematic review, reporting on a total of 1172 HIV-TB cases. Of these, 512 patients (44 %) tested positive for urinary LAM. After a variable duration of follow-up of between 2 and 6 months, overall case fatality rates among HIV-TB cases varied between 7 % and 53 %. Pooled summary estimates generated by random-effects meta-analysis showed a two-fold increased risk of mortality for urinary LAM-positive HIV-TB cases compared to urinary LAM-negative HIV-TB cases (relative risk 2.3, 95 % confidence interval 1.6-3.1). Some heterogeneity was explained by study setting and patient population in sub-group analyses. Five studies also reported multivariable analyses of risk factors for mortality, and pooled summary estimates demonstrated over two-fold increased mortality risk (odds ratio 2.5, 95 % confidence interval 1.4-4.5) among urinary LAM-positive HIV-TB cases, even after adjustment for other risk factors for mortality, including CD4 cell count. CONCLUSIONS:We have demonstrated that detectable LAM in urine is associated with increased risk of mortality during TB treatment, and that this relationship remains after adjusting for other risk factors for mortality. This may simply be due to a positive test for urinary LAM serving as a marker of higher mycobacterial load and greater disease dissemination and severity. Alternatively, LAM antigen may directly compromise host immune responses through its known immunomodulatory effects. Detectable LAM in the urine is an independent risk factor for mortality among patients receiving treatment for HIV-TB. Further research is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and to determine whether this vulnerable patient population may benefit from adjunctive interventions.

Project description:BackgroundBCG has been recommended at birth in countries with a high tuberculosis burden for decades, yet delayed vaccination is widespread. To support a WHO guidance review, we estimated the potential global tuberculosis mortality benefit of administering BCG on time and consequences of later administration.MethodsWe estimated age-specific BCG coverage in 152 high-burden countries using data from large, nationally representative household surveys, to parameterise a static mathematical model, calibrated to global childhood tuberculosis deaths in 2016. 12 hypothetical scenarios explored the effect of BCG delivery at birth, 6 weeks, 6 months, or 9-12 months, on tuberculosis deaths per global birth cohort by age 15 years, including delivery at the time of the first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) or the first measles-containing vaccine (MCV1). We assumed constant vaccine efficacy by age, but varied coverage and degree of vaccination delay, including no delay.FindingsIn 152 high-burden countries, we estimated that BCG coverage in 2016 was 37% at 1 week of age, 67% at 6 weeks, and 92% at 3 years. Modelled scenarios in which 92% BCG coverage was achieved at birth reduced tuberculosis deaths in the global birth cohort by 5449 (95% uncertainty range 218-15 071) or 2·8% (0·1-7·0) by age 15 years. 100% coverage at birth reduced tuberculosis deaths by 16·5% (0·7-41·9). Later administration increased tuberculosis deaths-eg, BCG vaccination at 6 weeks, the recommended age of DTP1, increased tuberculosis deaths by 0·2% (0-0·4), even if BCG reached DTP1 coverage levels (94% at 3 years).InterpretationReducing delays and increasing coverage at birth would substantially reduce global paediatric tuberculosis mortality. Modelled scenarios whereby BCG was administered later in the infant schedule were all estimated to increase tuberculosis deaths, even with increased coverage. The WHO recommendation for BCG at birth should be maintained and emphasised.FundingWHO.

Dataset Information

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.

Similar Datasets

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