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Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects?

ABSTRACT: How can we explain the rise in diffuse political support during the Covid-19 pandemic? Recent research has argued that the lockdown measures generated political support. In contrast, I argue that the intensity of the pandemic rallied people around political institutions. Collective angst in the face of exponentially rising Covid-19 cases depresses the usual cognitive evaluations of institutions and leads citizens to rally around existing intuitions as a lifebuoy. Using a representative Dutch household survey conducted over March 2020, I compare the lockdown effect to the dynamic of the pandemic. I find that the lockdown effect is driven by pre-existing time trends. Accounting for non-linearities in time makes the lockdown effect disappear. In contrast, more flexible modelling techniques reveal a robust effect of Covid-19 infections on political trust. In line with an anxiety effect, I find that standard determinants of political trust - such as economic evaluations and social trust - lose explanatory power as the pandemic spreads. This speaks to an emotionally driven rally effect that pushes cognitive evaluations to the background.

SUBMITTER: Schraff D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7753486 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Coping with the COVID-19 pandemic through institutional trust: Rally effects, compensatory control, and emotions.

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| S-EPMC8447168 | biostudies-literature

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| S-EPMC8535106 | biostudies-literature

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Project description:The roles of conspiracy beliefs and political trust for public health behaviour have seldomly been studied prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we tested whether conspiracy beliefs affect containment-related behaviour in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and whether this relationship is mediated by political trust, preference for saving the economy or for saving lives. The data were collected at two time points, at the beginning of the epidemic and after the state of emergency was introduced. The sample consisted of 790 adults from Serbia (349 at time 1 and 441 at time 2), of which around 60% were female, with a mean age of around 33. The results indicate that holding more conspiracy beliefs is related to less adherence to containment-related behaviour, both directly and indirectly, via decreased political trust. Preference for saving lives has a direct effect on containment-related behaviour, while preference for saving economy plays no important role in this relationship, although it has a negative zero-order association with containment-related behaviour. The findings are interpreted in light of the importance of governmental pandemic management for containing, i.e. preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

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Project description:In two large-scale longitudinal datasets (combined N = 5761), we investigated ability-related political polarization in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed more polarization with greater ability in emotional responses, risk perceptions, and product-purchase intentions across five waves of data collection with a diverse, convenience sample from February 2020 through July 2020 (Study 1, N = 1267). Specifically, more liberal participants had more negative emotional responses and greater risk perceptions of COVID-19 than conservative participants. Compared to conservatives, liberal participants also interpreted quantitative information as indicating higher COVID-19 risk and sought COVID-related news more from liberal than conservative news media. Of key importance, we also compared verbal and numeric cognitive abilities for their independent capacity to predict greater polarization. Although measures of numeric ability, such as objective numeracy, are often used to index ability-related polarization, ideological differences were more pronounced among those higher in verbal ability specifically. Similar results emerged in secondary analysis of risk perceptions in a nationally representative longitudinal dataset (Study 2, N = 4494; emotions and purchase intentions were not included in this dataset). We further confirmed verbal-ability-related polarization findings on non-COVID policy attitudes (i.e., weapons bans and Medicare-for-all) measured cross-sectionally. The present Study 2 documented ability-related polarization emerging over time for the first time (rather than simply measuring polarization in existing beliefs). Both studies demonstrated verbal ability measures as the most robust predictors of ability-related polarization. Together, these results suggest that polarization may be a function of the amount and/or application of verbal knowledge rather than selective application of quantitative reasoning skills.

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Household crowding can have political effects: An empirical study on support for anti-democratic political systems during the COVID-19 lockdown in Italy.

Project description:We analysed some political consequences of household crowding during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown across a wide quota sample of the Italian adult population, stratified as concerns gender, age, level of education, geographical area of residence, and size of area of residence, interviewed before (May-June 2019) and during (April 2020) the lockdown (N = 1,047, 51.2% women, M age = 50.44, SD = 14.36). Path analysis showed that household crowding during the lockdown was positively associated with support for anti-democratic political systems, through the partial mediation of the perceived relative impact of COVID-19 on one's family and of expectations of future lifestyle restrictions due to the pandemic. These associations did not depend on participants' pre-pandemic socio-economic status and predisposition to strong political leaders. Strengths, limitations, and possible developments of the study are discussed.

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