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Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects?

ABSTRACT: How can we explain the rise in diffuse political support during the Covid-19 pandemic? Recent research has argued that the lockdown measures generated political support. In contrast, I argue that the intensity of the pandemic rallied people around political institutions. Collective angst in the face of exponentially rising Covid-19 cases depresses the usual cognitive evaluations of institutions and leads citizens to rally around existing intuitions as a lifebuoy. Using a representative Dutch household survey conducted over March 2020, I compare the lockdown effect to the dynamic of the pandemic. I find that the lockdown effect is driven by pre-existing time trends. Accounting for non-linearities in time makes the lockdown effect disappear. In contrast, more flexible modelling techniques reveal a robust effect of Covid-19 infections on political trust. In line with an anxiety effect, I find that standard determinants of political trust - such as economic evaluations and social trust - lose explanatory power as the pandemic spreads. This speaks to an emotionally driven rally effect that pushes cognitive evaluations to the background.

SUBMITTER: Schraff D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7753486 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Coping with the COVID-19 pandemic through institutional trust: Rally effects, compensatory control, and emotions.

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| S-EPMC8535106 | biostudies-literature

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