Dataset Information

Combining machine learning algorithms for prediction of antidepressant treatment response.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Predictors for unfavorable treatment outcome in major depressive disorder (MDD) applicable for treatment selection are still lacking. The database of a longitudinal multicenter study on 1079 acutely depressed patients, performed by the German research network on depression (GRND), allows supervised and unsupervised learning to further elucidate the interplay of clinical and psycho-sociodemographic variables and their predictive impact on treatment outcome phenotypes.

Experimental procedures

Treatment response was defined by a change of HAM-D 17-item baseline score ?50% and remission by the established threshold of ?7, respectively, after up to eight weeks of inpatient treatment. After hierarchical symptom clustering and stratification by treatment subtypes (serotonin reuptake inhibitors, tricyclic antidepressants, antipsychotic, and lithium augmentation), prediction models for different outcome phenotypes were computed with random forest in a cross-center validation design. In total, 88 predictors were implemented.

Results

Clustering revealed four distinct HAM-D subscores related to emotional, anxious, sleep, and appetite symptoms, respectively. After feature selection, classification models reached moderate to high accuracies up to 0.85. Highest accuracies were observed for the SSRI and TCA subgroups and for sleep and appetite symptoms, while anxious symptoms showed poor predictability.

Conclusion

Our results support a decisive role for machine learning in the management of antidepressant treatment. Treatment- and symptom-specific algorithms may increase accuracies by reducing heterogeneity. Especially, predictors related to duration of illness, baseline depression severity, anxiety and somatic symptoms, and personality traits moderate treatment success. However, prospectives application of machine learning models will be necessary to prove their value for the clinic.

SUBMITTER: Kautzky A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7839691 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Combining machine learning algorithms for prediction of antidepressant treatment response.

Kautzky Alexander A Möller Hans-Juergen HJ Dold Markus M Bartova Lucie L Seemüller Florian F Laux Gerd G Riedel Michael M Gaebel Wolfgang W Kasper Siegfried S

Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica 20201127 1

<h4>Objectives</h4>Predictors for unfavorable treatment outcome in major depressive disorder (MDD) applicable for treatment selection are still lacking. The database of a longitudinal multicenter study on 1079 acutely depressed patients, performed by the German research network on depression (GRND), allows supervised and unsupervised learning to further elucidate the interplay of clinical and psycho-sociodemographic variables and their predictive impact on treatment outcome phenotypes.<h4>Experi ...[more]

PMID: 33141944

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Project description:Background: Individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) vary in their response to antidepressants. However, identifying objective biomarkers, prior to or early in the course of treatment that can predict antidepressant efficacy, remains a challenge. Methods: Individuals with MDD participated in a 12-week antidepressant pharmacotherapy trial. Electroencephalographic (EEG) data was collected before and 1 week post-treatment initiation in 51 patients. Response status at week 12 was established with the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Scale (MADRS), with a ?50% decrease characterizing responders (N = 27/24 responders/non-responders). We used a machine learning (ML)-approach for predicting response status. We focused on Random Forests, though other ML methods were compared. First, we used a tree-based estimator to select a relatively small number of significant features from: (a) demographic/clinical data (age, sex, individual item/total MADRS scores at baseline, week 1, change scores); (b) scalp-level EEG power; (c) source-localized current density (via exact low-resolution electromagnetic tomography [eLORETA] software). Second, we applied kernel principal component analysis to reduce and map important features. Third, a set of ML models were constructed to classify response outcome based on mapped features. For each dataset, predictive features were extracted, followed by a model of all predictive features, and finally by a model of the most predictive features. Results: Fifty eLORETA features were predictive of response (across bands, both time-points); alpha1/theta eLORETA features showed the highest predictive value. Eighty-eight scalp EEG features were predictive of response (across bands, both time-points), with theta/alpha2 being most predictive. Clinical/demographic data consisted of 31 features, with the most important being week 1 "concentration difficulty" scores. When all features were included into one model, its predictive utility was high (88% accuracy). When the most important features were extracted in the final model, 12 predictive features emerged (78% accuracy), including baseline scalp-EEG frontopolar theta, parietal alpha2 and frontopolar alpha1. Conclusions: These findings suggest that ML models of pre- and early treatment-emergent EEG profiles and clinical features can serve as tools for predicting antidepressant response. While this must be replicated using large independent samples, it lays the groundwork for research on personalized, "biomarker"-based treatment approaches.

Dataset Information

Combining machine learning algorithms for prediction of antidepressant treatment response.

Objectives

Experimental procedures

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Combining machine learning algorithms for prediction of antidepressant treatment response.

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