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Analysis of risk scoring for the outpatient management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

ABSTRACT: To determine whether the Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS) or pre-endoscopy Rockall score was better at accurately identifying patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) who were at low risk of the need for clinical intervention and death and therefore suitable for outpatient management.Retrospective database and case note review of all patients admitted to the emergency departments with AUGIB from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2009.Two tertiary centre teaching hospitals.432 patients met the inclusion criteria.None.Clinical interventions (blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy and surgery) and death.Of 432 patients, 40 (9.3%) had a GBS of 0 and none required intervention or died. In contrast, 13/104 patients (12.5%) who had a pre-endoscopy Rockall score of 0 and 23/125 patients (18.4%) who had a complete Rockall score <3, required clinical intervention. The performance of the scores at these cut-offs were: GBS (sensitivity 100%, specificity 16.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) 37.8%, negative predictive value (NPV) 100%, accuracy 82.3%), pre-endoscopy Rockall (sensitivity 91.2%, specificity 32.0%, PPV 41.2%, NPV 87.5%, accuracy 70.9%) and complete Rockall (sensitivity 84.5%, specificity 50.7%, PPV 55.8%, NPV 81.6%, accuracy 76.2%). For prediction of the need for intervention or death, the accuracy of the GBS (0.82; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.86) was superior to the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (0.71; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.76).The GBS but not the pre-endoscopy Rockall score identifies patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding who may be suitable for outpatient management, therefore potentially allowing for more efficient use of hospital resources.

SUBMITTER: Chan JCH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5517200 | biostudies-other | 2011 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors.MethodsSystematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival.ResultsMortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission. The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female).ConclusionOur study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department.MethodsA total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score.ResultsAmong 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794-0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.

Project description:ObjectivesAcute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common reason for emergency hospital admission. Identifying low-risk patients suitable for outpatient management is a clinical and research priority. This study aimed to develop a simple risk score to identify elderly patients with UGIB for whom hospital admission is not required.DesignThis was a single-centre retrospective study.SettingThis study was conducted at Zhongda Hospital affiliated with Southeast University in China.ParticipantsPatients from January 2015 to December 2020 for the derivation cohort and from January 2021 to June 2022 for the validation cohort were enrolled in this study. A total of 822 patients (derivation cohort=606 and validation cohorts=216) were included in this study. Patients aged ≥65 years with coffee-grounds vomiting, melena or/and haematemesis were included in the analysis. Patients admitted but had UGIB or transferred between hospitals were excluded.MethodsBaseline demographic characteristics and clinical parameters were recorded at the first visit. Data were collected from electronic records and databases. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was performed to identify predictors of safe discharge.Results304/606 (50.2%) and 132/216 (61.1%) patients were not safely discharged in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A clinical risk score of five variables was entered into UGIB risk stratification: Charlson Comorbidity Index >2, systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, haemoglobin <100 g/L, blood urea nitrogen ≥6.5 mmol/L, albumin <30 g/L. The optimal cut-off value was ≥1, the sensitivity was 97.37% and the specificity was 19.21% for predicting the inability to discharge safely. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.806.ConclusionsA novel clinical risk score with good discriminative performance was developed to identify elderly patients with UGIB who were suitable for safe outpatient management. This score can reduce unnecessary hospitalisations.

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Analysis of risk scoring for the outpatient management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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