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Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Infections produced by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic (non-symptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves --and being perceived by others-- as not representing risk of infection. Yet many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates individuals' behavioral decisions based on a projection of the future system's state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals' risk misperception in the presence of asymptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of asymptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals' behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.

SUBMITTER: Espinoza B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7924275 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics.

Espinoza Baltazar B Marathe Madhav M Swarup Samarth S Thakur Mugdha M

Research square 20210223

Infections produced by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic (non-symptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves --and being perceived by others-- as not representing risk of infection. Yet many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impa ...[more]

PMID: 33655240

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Project description:BackgroundHuman echinococcosis is affected by natural environmental factors, and its prevalence shows a distinct geographical distribution. Western China has the highest endemicity of human echinococcosis worldwide, but the spatial pattern and environmental determinants of echinococcosis are still unclear.MethodsHot/cold spot analysis was used to investigate the spatial distribution of human echinococcosis prevalence. Geodetector was used to identify key natural factors, and a structured additive regression model was used to analyse the relationship between natural factors and human echinococcosis prevalence and spatially predict echinococcosis epidemics.ResultsHot spots for human echinococcosis prevalence include western and southeastern parts of Tibet Autonomous Region (henceforth Tibet) and the border areas between Tibet and the provinces of Qinghai and Sichuan. Spatial effects are crucial when modelling epidemics, and relative humidity, altitude and grassland area ratio were found to have the most evident effects on echinococcosis epidemics. The relationship between these three factors and echinococcosis prevalence was non-linear, and echinococcosis risk was higher in areas with high relative humidity, high altitude, and a high ratio of grassland to other land use types. The prevalence that was predicted from the investigated environmental factors was generally higher than the actual prevalence, and more epidemic hot spots were predicted for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and the provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan than the rest of western China. These results indicate that prevention and control measures may effectively reduce echinococcosis prevalence.ConclusionsWe suggest that the prevention and control of human echinococcosis should be prioritized in the hot spots identified here, through the rational allocation of limited medical resources to where they are most needed. Furthermore, the spatial epidemiological modelling methods used in this study can be employed in future studies on echinococcosis and similar diseases.

Dataset Information

Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics.

Publications

Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics.

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