Planning the Future Oral Health Workforce: A Rapid Review of Supply, Demand and Need Models, Data Sources and Skill Mix Considerations.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Balasubramanian M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7999471 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveThis study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025.MethodsA microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform.ResultsThe estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.ConclusionsIn the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.
| S-EPMC3776531 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Estimates of the extent of treatment need (defined by the presence of a diagnosis for which there is an effective treatment available) and treatment demand (defined as treatment seeking) are essential parts of effective treatment planning, service provision, and treatment funding. This article reviews the existing literature on approaches to estimating need and demand and the use of models to inform such estimation, and then considers the implications for health planners. METHOD:A thematic review of the literature was undertaken, with a focus on covering the key concepts and research methods that have been used to date. RESULTS:Both need and demand are important estimates in planning for services but contain many difficulties in moving from the theory of measurement to the practicalities of establishing these figures. Furthermore, the simple quantum of need or demand is limited in its usefulness unless it is matched with consideration of different treatment types and their relative intensity, and/or explored as a function of geography and subpopulation. Modeling can assist with establishing more fine-tuned planning estimates, and is able to take into account both client severity and the various treatment types that might be available. CONCLUSIONS:Moving from relatively simplistic estimates of need and demand for treatment, this review has shown that although such estimation can inform national or subnational treatment planning, more sophisticated models are required for alcohol and other drug treatment planning. These can help health planners to determine the appropriate amount and mix of treatments for substance use disorders.
| S-EPMC6377022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundProjecting the demand for plastic surgeons has become increasingly important in a climate of scarce public resource within a single payer health-care system. The goal of this study is to provide a comprehensive workforce update and describe the perceptions of the workforce among Canadian Plastic Surgery residents and surgeons.MethodsTwo questionnaires were developed by a national task force under the Canadian Plastic Surgery Research Collaborative. The surveys were distributed to residents and practicing surgeons, respectively.ResultsTwo-hundred fifteen (49%) surgeons responded, with a mean age of 51.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 11.5); 78% were male. Thirty-three percent had been in practice for 25 years or longer. More than half of respondents were practicing in a large urban center. Fifty-nine percent believed their group was going to hire in the next 2 to 3 years; however, only 36% believed their health authority/provincial government had the necessary resources. The mean desired age of retirement was 67 years (SD = 6.4). We predict the surgeons-to-population ratio to be 1.55:100?000 and the graduate-to-retiree ratio to be 2.16:1 within the next 5 to 10 years. Seventy-seven (49%) residents responded. Most were "very satisfied" with their training (61%) and operative experience (90%). Eighty-nine percent of respondents planned to pursue addqitional training after residency, with 70% stating that the current job market was contributing to their decision. Most residents responded that they were concerned with the current job market.ConclusionsThe results of this study predict an adequate number of plastic surgeons will be trained within the next 10 years to suit the population's requirements; however, there is concern that newly trained surgeons will not have access to the necessary resources to meet growing demands. Furthermore, there is an evident shortage of those practicing in rural areas. Many trainees worry about the availability of jobs, despite evidence of active recruitment. The workforce may benefit from structured career mentorship in residency and improved transparency in hiring practices, particularly to attract young surgeons to smaller communities. It may also benefit from a coordinated national approach to recruitment and succession planning.
| S-EPMC6236507 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth workforce needs-based shortages and skill mix imbalances are significant health workforce challenges. Task shifting, defined as delegating tasks to existing or new cadres with either less training or narrowly tailored training, is a potential strategy to address these challenges. This study uses an economics perspective to review the skill mix literature to determine its strength of the evidence, identify gaps in the evidence, and to propose a research agenda.MethodsStudies primarily from low-income countries published between 2006 and September 2010 were found using Google Scholar and PubMed. Keywords included terms such as skill mix, task shifting, assistant medical officer, assistant clinical officer, assistant nurse, assistant pharmacist, and community health worker. Thirty-one studies were selected to analyze, based on the strength of evidence.ResultsFirst, the studies provide substantial evidence that task shifting is an important policy option to help alleviate workforce shortages and skill mix imbalances. For example, in Mozambique, surgically trained assistant medical officers, who were the key providers in district hospitals, produced similar patient outcomes at a significantly lower cost as compared to physician obstetricians and gynaecologists. Second, although task shifting is promising, it can present its own challenges. For example, a study analyzing task shifting in HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa noted quality and safety concerns, professional and institutional resistance, and the need to sustain motivation and performance. Third, most task shifting studies compare the results of the new cadre with the traditional cadre. Studies also need to compare the new cadre's results to the results from the care that would have been provided--if any care at all--had task shifting not occurred.ConclusionsTask shifting is a promising policy option to increase the productive efficiency of the delivery of health care services, increasing the number of services provided at a given quality and cost. Future studies should examine the development of new professional cadres that evolve with technology and country-specific labour markets. To strengthen the evidence, skill mix changes need to be evaluated with a rigorous research design to estimate the effect on patient health outcomes, quality of care, and costs.
| S-EPMC3027093 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios.MethodsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders.ResultsThree alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings.ConclusionsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.
| S-EPMC10506318 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications.Materials and methodsA demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used.ResultsDepending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%.ConclusionsThis study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.
| S-EPMC5671958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The primary vector of the dengue fever virus, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is distributed across the tropical and sub-tropical latitudes; however, the area at risk of infection has been expanding steadily. This study aimed to identify the industries most vulnerable to the effects of dengue fever by 2030. The assessment was done by considering the international supply chain, with aspects such as the labor intensity, and the relevant geographical and socioeconomic aspects being taken into account. In addition, multi-regional input-output tables were employed to analyze the ripple effects of productivity losses resulting from workers contracting the disease. The results indicate that more than 10% of the workers involved in the supply chain of all the major industries in the United States (USA), China, Japan, and Germany could be considered at risk of contracting dengue fever by 2030. Moreover, the risk was even higher in India and Brazil, namely, more than 70%. The effect of widespread dengue fever infection could influence industrial activities severely, not only in the regions most at risk (India and Brazil) but also in the other regions (USA, Japan, and Germany). Labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture, fisheries, and the distribution sector are particularly at risk and will have to consider appropriate contingency measures. It is recommended that the downstream side of the supply chain, the industries in the USA, Japan, and Germany, supports the introduction of worker's health management system against the infectious disease into their business partners. This study employed limited data and only estimated the possible effects of the disease by 2030. Further comprehensive analysis is required with more data modeled for the future to verify and enhance the reliability of the present results.
| S-EPMC7089289 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world's resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this "perfect storm" will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of protein and ensure food security.
| S-EPMC5532560 | biostudies-other
Project description:PurposeTo conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO.MethodsNew data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000-2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models.ResultsDemand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists-roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions.ConclusionsASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.
| S-EPMC2793740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe prevalence of obesity is increasing in developed countries, including Australia. There is evidence that bariatric surgery is effective in losing weight and reducing risk of chronic diseases. However, access to bariatric surgery remains limited in the public health sector.MethodWe modelled population-based estimates of the likely numbers of people eligible for bariatric surgery in Australia using the recent Australian New Zealand Metabolic and Obesity Surgery Society (ANZMOSS) framework and estimated the potential costs that would be incurred from primary and subsequent reoperations in both public and private sector.ResultsThe annual number of newly eligible patients is expected to rise, and hence the gap in demand is increasing relative to current baseline supply. If a 5-year program to treat all currently eligible patients was implemented, the maximum yearly demand is projected to be 341,343 primary surgeries, more than eight times the existing capacity of public and private sector, which can only offer 41,534 surgeries/year. A nine-fold increase is expected if we treat currently eligible patients over a 5-year program and all newly eligible patients as they occur each year.ConclusionOur results highlighted the currently highly skewed distribution of bariatric surgeries between the private and public sectors. Improving access would bring substantial benefits to many Australians, given the demonstrated cost-effectiveness and cost savings. This requires a major increase in resourcing for publicly-funded access to bariatric surgery in the first instance. A national review of priorities and resourcing for all modes of obesity treatment is required in Australia.
| S-EPMC9392713 | biostudies-literature