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External Validation and Extension of a Clinical Score for the Discrimination of Type 2 Myocardial Infarction

ABSTRACT: Background: The early non-invasive discrimination of Type 2 versus Type 1 Myocardial Infarction (T2MI, T1MI) is a major unmet clinical need. We aimed to externally validate a recently derived clinical score (Neumann) combing female sex, no radiating chest pain, and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentration ≤40.8 ng/L. Methods: Patients presenting with acute chest discomfort to the emergency department were prospectively enrolled into an international multicenter diagnostic study. The final diagnoses of T2MI and T1MI were centrally adjudicated by two independent cardiologists using all information including cardiac imaging and serial measurements of hs-cTnT/I according to the fourth universal definition of MI. Model performance for T2MI diagnosis was assessed by formal tests and graphical means of discrimination and calibration. Results: Among 6684 enrolled patients, MI was the adjudicated final diagnosis in 1079 (19%) patients, of which 242 (22%) had T2MI. External validation of the Neumann Score showed a moderate discrimination (C-statistic 0.67 (95%CI 0.64–0.71)). Model calibration showed underestimation of the predicted probabilities of having T2MI for low point scores. Model extension by adding the binary variable heart rate >120/min significantly improved model performance (C-statistic 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.76, p < 0.001) and had good calibration. Patients with the highest score values of 3 (Neumann Score, 9.9%) and 5 (Extended Neumann Score, 3.3%) had a 53% and 91% predicted probability of T2MI, respectively. Conclusion: The Neumann Score provided moderate discrimination and suboptimal calibration. Extending the Neumann Score by adding heart rate >120/min improved the model’s performance.

SUBMITTER: Nestelberger T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8003225 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background Bleeding risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome is of highest clinical interest but current risk scores have limitations. We sought to develop and validate a new in-hospital bleeding risk score for patients with acute myocardial infarction. Methods and Results From the nationwide SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) register, 97,597 patients with acute myocardial infarction enrolled from 2009 until 2014 were selected. A full model with 23 predictor variables and 8 interaction terms was fitted using logistic regression. The full model was approximated by a model with 5 predictors and 1 interaction term. Calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility was evaluated and compared with the ACTION (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network) and CRUSADE (Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Ad verse Outcomes With Early Implementation of the ACC /AHA Guidelines) scores. Internal and temporal validity was assessed. In-hospital major bleeding, defined as fatal, intracranial, or requiring surgery or blood transfusion, occurred in 1356 patients (1.4%). The 5 predictors in the approximate model that constituted the SWEDEHEART score were hemoglobin, age, sex, creatinine, and C-reactive protein. The ACTION and CRUSADE scores were poorly calibrated in the derivation cohort and therefore were recalibrated. The SWEDEHEART score showed higher discriminative ability than both recalibrated scores, overall ( C-index 0.80 versus 0.73/0.72) and in all predefined subgroups. Decision curve analysis demonstrated consistently positive and higher net benefit for the SWEDEHEART score compared with both recalibrated scores across all clinically relevant decision thresholds. The original ACTION and CRUSADE scores showed negative net benefit. Conclusions The 5-item SWEDEHEART score discriminates in-hospital major bleeding in patients with acute myocardial infarction and has superior model performance compared with the recalibrated ACTION and CRUSADE scores.

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External Validation and Extension of a Clinical Score for the Discrimination of Type 2 Myocardial Infarction

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