Dataset Information

Analysis of efficacy of intervention strategies for COVID-19 transmission: A case study of Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: By the end of February 2021, COVID-19 had spread to over 230 countries, with more than 100 million confirmed cases and 2.5 million deaths. To control infection spread with the least disruption to economic and societal activities, it is crucial to implement the various interventions effectively. In this study, we developed an agent-based SEIR model, using real demographic and geographic data from Hong Kong, to analyse the efficiency of various intervention strategies in preventing infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Close contact route including short-range airborne is considered as the main transmission routes for COVID-19 spread. Contact tracing is not that useful if all other interventions have been fully deployed. The number of infected individuals could be halved if people reduced their close contact rate by 25%. For reducing transmission, students should be prioritized for vaccination rather than retired older people and preschool aged children. Home isolation, and taking the nucleic acid test (NAT) as soon as possible after symptom onset, are much more effective interventions than wearing masks in public places. Temperature screening in public places only disrupted the infection spread by a small amount when other interventions have been fully implemented. Our results may be useful for other highly populated cities, when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 and similar diseases.

SUBMITTER: Zhang N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8214805 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundGiven the dynamism and heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission patterns, determining the most effective yet timely strategies for specific regions remains a severe challenge for public health decision-makers.MethodsIn this work, we proposed a spatiotemporal connectivity analysis method for discovering transmission patterns across geographic locations and age-groups throughout different COVID-19 outbreak phases. First, we constructed the transmission networks of the confirmed cases during different phases by considering the spatiotemporal connectivity of any two cases. Then, for each case and those cases immediately pointed from it, we characterized the corresponding cross-district/population transmission pattern by counting their district-to-district and age-to-age occurrences. By summating the cross-district/population transmission patterns of all cases during a given period, we obtained the aggregated cross-district and cross-population transmission patterns.FindingsWe conducted a region-wide comprehensive retrospective study in Hong Kong based on the complete data report of COVID-19 cases, covering all 18 districts between January 23, 2020, and January 8, 2021 (https://data.gov.hk/en-data/dataset/hk-dh-chpsebcddr-novel-infectious-agent). The spatiotemporal connectivity analysis clearly unveiled the quantitative differences among various outbreak waves in their transmission scales, durations, and patterns. Moreover, for the statistically similar waves, their cross-district/population transmission patterns could be quite different (e.g., the cross-district transmission of the fourth wave was more diverse than that of the third wave, while the transmission over age-groups of the fourth wave was more concentrated than that of the third wave). At an overall level, super-spreader individuals (highly connected cases in the transmission networks) were usually concentrated in only a few districts (2 out of 18 in our study) or age-groups (3 out of 11 in our study).InterpretationWith the discovered cross-district or cross-population transmission patterns, all of the waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong can be systematically scrutinized. Among all districts, quite a few (e.g., the Yau Tsim Mong district) were instrumental in spreading the virus throughout the pandemic. Aside from being exceptionally densely populated, these districts were also social-economic centers. With a variety of situated public venues, such as restaurants and singing/dancing clubs, these districts played host to all kinds of social gathering events, thereby providing opportunities for widespread and rapid transmission of the virus. Thus, these districts should be given the highest priority when deploying district-specific social distancing or intervention strategies, such as lockdown and stringent mandatory coronavirus testing for identifying and obstructing the chain of transmission. We also observed that most of the reported cases and the highly connected cases were middle-aged and elderly people (40- to 69-year-olds). People in these age-groups were active in various public places and social activities, and thus had high chances of being infected by or infecting others.FundingGeneral research fund of the Hong Kong research grants council.

Project description:BackgroundHong Kong contained COVID-19 for two years but experienced a large epidemic of Omicron BA.2 in early 2022 and endemic transmission of Omicron subvariants thereafter. We reflected on pandemic preparedness and responses by assessing COVID-19 transmission and associated disease burden in the context of implementation of various public health and social measures (PHSMs).MethodsWe examined the use and impact of pandemic controls in Hong Kong by analysing data on more than 1.7 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and characterizing the temporal changes non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions implemented from January 2020 through to 30 December 2022. We estimated the daily effective reproductive number (Rt) to track changes in transmissibility and effectiveness of community-based measures against infection over time. We examined the temporal changes of pharmaceutical interventions, mortality rate and case-fatality risks (CFRs), particularly among older adults.FindingsHong Kong experienced four local epidemic waves predominated by the ancestral strain in 2020 and early 2021 and prevented multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants from spreading in the community before 2022. Strict travel-related, case-based, and community-based measures were increasingly tightened in Hong Kong over the first two years of the pandemic. However, even very stringent measures were unable to contain the spread of Omicron BA.2 in Hong Kong. Despite high overall vaccination uptake (>70% with at least two doses), high mortality was observed during the Omicron BA.2 wave due to lower vaccine coverage (42%) among adults ≥65 years of age. Increases in antiviral usage and vaccination uptake over time through 2022 was associated with decreased case fatality risks.InterpretationIntegrated strict measures were able to reduce importation risks and interrupt local transmission to contain COVID-19 transmission and disease burden while awaiting vaccine development and rollout. Increasing coverage of pharmaceutical interventions among high-risk groups reduced infection-related mortality and mitigated the adverse health impact of the pandemic.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund.

Dataset Information

Analysis of efficacy of intervention strategies for COVID-19 transmission: A case study of Hong Kong.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets