Epidemic Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in Brazil.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Moreira FRR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8230136 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In December 2020, research surveillance detected the B.1.1.7 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in São Paulo, Brazil. Rapid genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed 2 distinct introductions of the lineage. One patient reported no international travel. There may be more infections with this lineage in Brazil than reported.
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Project description:Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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Project description:Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is paramount for understanding viral dynamics, contributing to disease control. This study analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity in Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, including the first reported case in each Regional Health Coordination and cases from three epidemic peaks. Ninety SARS-CoV-2 genomes from RS were sequenced and analyzed through comparison with SARS-CoV-2 datasets available in GISAID for phylogenetic inference and mutation analysis. Among the first reported cases, we found the following lineages: B.1 (33.3%), B.1.1.28 (26.7%), B.1.1 (13.3%), B.1.1.33 (10.0%), and A (6.7%), evidencing SARS-CoV-2 introduction by both international origin and community-driven transmission. We found predominance of B.1.1.33 (50.0%) and B.1.1.28 (35.0%) during the first epidemic peak (July-August 2020), emergence of P.2 (55.6%) in the second peak (November-December 2020), and massive spread of P.1 and related sequences (78.4%), such as P.1-like-II, P.1.1 and P.1.2 in the third peak (February-April, 2021). Eighteen novel mutation combinations were found among P.1 genomes, and 22 different spike mutations and/or deletions among P.1 and related sequences. This study shows the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Southern Brazil and describes SARS-CoV-2 diversity during three epidemic peaks, highlighting the spread of P.1 and the high genetic diversity of currently circulating lineages. Genomic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to guide health authorities' decisions to control COVID-19 in Brazil.
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Project description:Understanding why or how the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has occurred and how to control them is crucial as regards the potential of global reopening. To explore and further understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of the B.1.1.7 spread in the 368 districts of Taiwan, a district-level geographic prediction model of the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset has been proposed. It has been found that, (a) the human mobility, epidemic alert measures, and vaccination rates all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of B.1.1.7 transmission; (b) for regions with high human mobility and low vaccination rates, the partial relaxation of entry quarantine measures for specific imported groups would, in fact, lead to a wide spread of B.1.1.7 with a consequent doubling of high-onset-risk areas and together with the overall onset risk, a further increase of more than 20% would occur; (c) compared with the closing of business places and public venues in all districts, both lockdown in those areas of high-onset-risk and the gathered control effects regarding other districts, the control of B.1.1.7 spread would be better enabled by an onset risk reduction of up to 91.36%. Additionally, an increase in the vaccination rate in each district by up to 5-10 times would further reduce the onset risk by 6.07%-62.22%.
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Project description:Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
| PRJEB39487 | ENA
Project description:As the COVID-19 pandemic swept through an immunologically naïve human population, academics and public health professionals scrambled to establish methods and platforms for genomic surveillance and data sharing. This offered a rare opportunity to study the ecology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 over the course of the ongoing pandemic. Here, we use population genetic and phylogenetic methodology to characterize the population dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstruct patterns of virus introductions and local transmission in Norway against this backdrop. The analyses demonstrated that the epidemic in Norway was largely import driven and characterized by the repeated introduction, establishment, and suppression of new transmission lineages. This pattern changed with the arrival of the B.1.1.7 lineage, which was able to establish a stable presence concomitant with the imposition of severe border restrictions.
| S-EPMC8516819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
| S-EPMC9269003 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40-80 % (Volz et al., 2021; Leung et al., 2021; Davies et al., 2021).AimThis study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland.MethodsWe generated whole genome sequences from 11.8 % of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variant's transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale.ResultsWe estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43-52 % compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07-1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06-1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00-1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021.ConclusionThe observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2-3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.
| S-EPMC8452947 | biostudies-literature
Project description:SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant first detected in the United Kingdom in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than preexisting variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. We analyse a dataset linking 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 COVID-19 deaths in England from 1 September 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because of mutations in this lineage preventing PCR amplification of the spike gene target (S gene target failure, SGTF1). Based on 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% CI 39-72%) higher after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, care home residence, local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old male increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% CI 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days after a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate a 61% (42-82%) higher hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than preexisting SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.
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Project description:The B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant has been detected in Mumbai, India during February 2021. Subsequently, we retrieved 43 sequences from specimens of 51 COVID-19 cases from Mumbai. The sequence analysis revealed that the cases were mainly affected with Alpha variant which suggests its role in community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Mumbai, India.
| S-EPMC8563497 | biostudies-literature