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Tracking and Controlling the Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in COVID-19 Reopenings.

ABSTRACT: Understanding why or how the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has occurred and how to control them is crucial as regards the potential of global reopening. To explore and further understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of the B.1.1.7 spread in the 368 districts of Taiwan, a district-level geographic prediction model of the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset has been proposed. It has been found that, (a) the human mobility, epidemic alert measures, and vaccination rates all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of B.1.1.7 transmission; (b) for regions with high human mobility and low vaccination rates, the partial relaxation of entry quarantine measures for specific imported groups would, in fact, lead to a wide spread of B.1.1.7 with a consequent doubling of high-onset-risk areas and together with the overall onset risk, a further increase of more than 20% would occur; (c) compared with the closing of business places and public venues in all districts, both lockdown in those areas of high-onset-risk and the gathered control effects regarding other districts, the control of B.1.1.7 spread would be better enabled by an onset risk reduction of up to 91.36%. Additionally, an increase in the vaccination rate in each district by up to 5-10 times would further reduce the onset risk by 6.07%-62.22%.

SUBMITTER: Tong C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8665480 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIn December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40-80 % (Volz et al., 2021; Leung et al., 2021; Davies et al., 2021).AimThis study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland.MethodsWe generated whole genome sequences from 11.8 % of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variant's transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale.ResultsWe estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43-52 % compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07-1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06-1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00-1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021.ConclusionThe observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2-3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.

Dataset Information

Tracking and Controlling the Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in COVID-19 Reopenings.

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