Predictive Nomogram and Risk Factors for Lymph Node Metastasis in Bladder Cancer.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tian Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242250 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundLymph node negative (N0) breast cancer can be found coexisting with distant metastasis (DM), which might consequently make clinicians underestimate the risk of relapse and insufficient treatment for this subpopulation.MethodsThe clinicopathological characteristics of N0 breast cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between January 2010 and December 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Multivariate logistic and Cox analyses were used to identify independent risk factors in promoting DM and the 1-, 3-, and 5- year cancer-specific survival (CSS) in this subpopulation.ResultSeven factors including age (<40 years), tumor size (>10 mm), race (Black), location (central), grade (poor differentiation), histology (invasive lobular carcinoma), and subtype (luminal B and Her-2 enriched) were associated with DM, and the area under curve (AUC) was 0.776 (95% CI: 0.763-0.790). Moreover, T1-3N0M1 patients with age >60 years at diagnosis, Black race, triple-negative breast cancer subtype, no surgery performed, and multiple DMs presented a worse 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. The areas under the ROC for 1-, 3-, and 5- year CSS in the training cohort were 0.772, 0.741, and 0.762, respectively, and 0.725, 0.695, and 0.699 in the validation cohort.ConclusionThe clinicopathological characteristics associated with the risk of DM and the prognosis of female breast cancer patients without lymph node metastasis but with DM are determined. A novel nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, 5- year CSS in T1-3N0M1 patients is also well established and validated, which could help clinicians better stratify patients who are at a high-risk level for receiving relatively aggressive management.
| S-EPMC8653828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGrowing evidence suggests that tumor metastasis necessitates multi-step microenvironmental regulation. Lymph node metastasis (LNM) influences both pre- and post-operative bladder cancer (BLCA) treatment strategies. Given that current LNM diagnosis methods are still insufficient, we intend to investigate the microenvironmental changes in BLCA with and without LNM and develop a prediction model to confirm LNM status.Method"Estimation of Stromal and Immune cells in Malignant Tumors using Expression data" (ESTIMATE) algorithm was used to characterize the tumor microenvironment pattern of TCGA-BLCA cohort, and dimension reduction, feature selection, and StrLNM signature construction were accomplished using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. StrLNM signature was combined with the genomic mutation to establish an LNM nomogram by using multivariable logistic regression. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in terms of calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. The testing set from the TCGA-BLCA cohort was used for internal validation. Moreover, three independent cohorts were used for external validation, and BLCA patients from our cohort were also used for further validation.ResultsThe StrLNM signature, consisting of 22 selected features, could accurately predict LNM status in the TCGA-BLCA cohort and several independent cohorts. The nomogram performed well in discriminating LNM status, with the area under curve (AUC) of 75.1% and 65.4% in training and testing datasets from the TCGA-BLCA cohort. Furthermore, the StrLNM nomogram demonstrated good calibration with p >0.05 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the StrLNM nomogram had a high potential for clinical utility. Additionally, 14 of 22 stably expressed genes were identified by survival analysis and confirmed by qPCR in BLCA patient samples in our cohort.ConclusionIn summary, we developed a nomogram that included an StrLNM signature and facilitated the preoperative prediction of LNM status in BLCA patients.
| S-EPMC9798213 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Preoperative lymph node (LN) status is important for the treatment of bladder cancer (BCa). Here, we report a genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram for preoperatively predicting LN metastasis in BCa. In the discovery stage, 325 BCa patients from TCGA were involved and LN-status-related mRNAs were selected. In the training stage, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to developed a genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram for preoperative LN metastasis prediction in the training set (SYSMH set, n=178). In the validation stage, we validated the nomogram using two independent sample sets (SYSUCC set, n=142; RJH set, n=104) with respect to its discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. As results, we identified five LN-status-related mRNAs, including ADRA1D, COL10A1, DKK2, HIST2H3D and MMP11. Then, a genomic classifier was developed to classify patients into high- and low-risk groups in the training set. Furthermore, a nomogram incorporating the five-mRNA-based classifier, image-based LN status, transurethral resection (TUR) T stage, and TUR lymphovascular invasion (LVI) was constructed in the training set, which performed well in the training and validation sets. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical value of our nomogram. Thus, our genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram shows favorable discriminatory ability and may aid in clinical decision-making, especially for cN-patients.
| S-EPMC6014062 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundExisting imaging techniques have a low ability to detect lymph node metastasis (LNM) of gallbladder cancer (GBC). Gallbladder removal by laparoscopic cholecystectomy can provide pathological information regarding the tumor itself for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC). The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with LNM of IGBC and to establish a nomogram to improve the ability to predict the risk of LNM for IGBC.MethodsA total of 796 patients diagnosed with stage T1/2 GBC between 2004 and 2015 who underwent surgery and lymph node evaluation were enrolled in this study. We randomly divided the dataset into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). A logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram in the training set and then was verified in the validation set. Nomogram performance was quantified with respect to discrimination and calibration.ResultsThe rates of LNM in T1a, T1b and T2 patients were 7, 11.1 and 44.3%, respectively. Tumor diameter, T stage, and tumor differentiation were independent factors affecting LNM. The C-index and AUC of the training set were 0.718 (95% CI, 0.676-0.760) and 0.702 (95% CI, 0.659-0.702), respectively, demonstrating good prediction performance. The calibration curves showed perfect agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. Decision curve analysis showed that the LNM nomogram was clinically useful when the risk was decided at a possibility threshold of 2-63%. The C-index and AUC of the validation set were 0.73 (95% CI: 0.665-0.795) and 0.692 (95% CI: 0.625-0.759), respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram established in this study has good prediction ability. For patients with IGBC requiring re-resection, the model can effectively predict the risk of LNM and make up for the inaccuracy of imaging.
| S-EPMC7461264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lymph node (LN) metastasis is a lethal independent risk factor for patients with bladder cancer (BLCA). Accurate evaluation of LN metastasis is of vital importance for disease staging, treatment selection, and prognosis prediction. Several histopathologic parameters are available to predict LN metastasis postoperatively. To date, medical imaging techniques have made a great contribution to preoperatively diagnosis of LN metastasis, but it also exhibits substantial false positives. Therefore, a reliable and robust method to preoperatively predict LN metastasis is urgently needed. Here, we selected 19 candidate genes related to epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) across the LN metastasis samples, which was previously reported to be responsible for the subtype transition and correlation with malignancy and prognosis of BLCA, to establish an EMT-LN signature through LASSO logistic regression analysis. The EMT-LN signature could significantly predict LN metastasis with high accuracy in the TCGA-BLCA cohort, as well as several independent cohorts. As integrating with C3orf70 mutation, we developed an individualized prediction nomogram based on the EMT-LN signature. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination on LN metastasis status, with AUC of 71.7% and 75.9% in training and testing datasets of the TCGA-BLCA cohort. Moreover, the EMT-LN nomogram displayed good calibration with p > 0.05 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the EMT-LN nomogram was of high potential for clinical utility. In summary, we established an EMT-LN nomogram integrating an EMT-LN signature and C3orf70 mutation status, which acted as an easy-to-use tool to facilitate preoperative prediction of LN metastasis in BLCA individuals.
| S-EPMC7656235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The status of lymph node (LN) metastases plays a decisive role in the selection of surgical procedures and post-operative treatment. Several histopathologic features, known as predictors of LN metastasis, are commonly available post-operatively. Medical imaging improved pre-operative diagnosis, but the results are not fully satisfactory due to substantial false positives. Thus, a reliable and robust method for pre-operative assessment of LN status is urgently required. We developed a prediction model in a training set from the TCGA-BLCA cohort including 196 bladder urothelial carcinoma samples with confirmed LN metastasis status. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was harnessed for dimension reduction, feature selection, and LNM signature building. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the prognostic model, incorporating the LNM signature, and a genomic mutation of MLL2, and was presented with a LNM nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Internal validation was evaluated by the testing set from the TCGA cohort and independent validation was assessed by two independent cohorts. The LNM signature, which consisted of 48 selected features, was significantly associated with LN status (p < 0.005 for both the training and testing sets of the TCGA cohort). Predictors contained in the individualized prediction nomogram included the LNM signature and MLL2 mutation status. The model demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 98.7% (85.3% for testing set) and good calibration with p = 0.973 (0.485 for testing set) in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the LNM nomogram was clinically useful. This study presents a pre-operative nomogram incorporating a LNM signature and a genomic mutation, which can be conveniently utilized to facilitate pre-operative individualized prediction of LN metastasis in patients with bladder urothelial carcinoma.
| S-EPMC6598397 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Treatment strategy for early gastric cancer depends on the probability of lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study is to develop a nomogram predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer using clinicopathological factors and biomarkers.A literature review was performed to identify biomarkers related to lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer. Seven markers were selected and immunohistochemistry was performed in 336 early gastric cancer tissues. Based on the multivariable analysis, a prediction model including clinicopatholgical factors and biomarkers was developed, and benefit of adding biomarkers was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve and net reclassification improvement. Functional study in gastric cancer cell line was performed to evaluate mechanism of biomarker.Of the seven biomarkers studied, ?1 catenin and CD44v6 were significantly associated with lymph node metastasis. A conventional prediction model, including tumor size, histological type, lymphatic blood vessel invasion, and depth of invasion, was developed. Then, a new prediction model including both clinicopathological factors and CD44v6 was developed. Net reclassification improvement analysis revealed a significant improvement of predictive performance by the addition of CD44v6, and a similar result was shown in the internal validation using bootstrapping. Prediction nomograms were then constructed based on these models. In the functional study, CD44v6 was revealed to affect cell proliferation, migration and invasion.Overexpression of CD44v6 was a significant predictor of lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer. The prediction nomograms incorporating CD44v6 can be useful to determine treatment plans in patients with early gastric cancer.
| S-EPMC4970798 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is feasible for breast cancer (BC) patients with clinically negative axillary lymph nodes; however, complications develop in some patients after surgery, although SLN metastasis is rarely found. Previous predictive models contained parameters that relied on postoperative data, thus limiting their application in the preoperative setting. Therefore, it is necessary to find a new model for preoperative risk prediction for SLN metastasis to help clinicians facilitate individualized clinical decisions.Materials and methodsBC patients who underwent SLN biopsy in two different institutions were included in the training and validation cohorts. Demographic characteristics, preoperative tumor pathological features, and ultrasound findings were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop the nomogram. The discrimination, accuracy, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were assessed using Harrell's C-statistic and ROC analysis, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis, respectively.ResultsA total of 624 patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled, including 444 in the training cohort and 180 in the validation cohort. Young age, high BMI, high Ki67, large tumor size, indistinct tumor margins, calcifications, and an aspect ratio ≥1 were independent predictive factors for SLN metastasis of BC. Incorporating these parameters, the nomogram achieved a robust predictive performance with a C-index and accuracy of 0.92 and 0.85, and 0.82 and 0.80 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves also fit well, and the decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful.ConclusionsWe established a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of SLN metastasis in BC patients, providing a non-invasive approach in clinical practice and serving as a potential tool to identify BC patients who may omit unnecessary SLN biopsy.
| S-EPMC8107679 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to explore the risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with endometrial cancer (EC) and develop a clinically useful nomogram based on clinicopathological parameters to predict it.MethodsClinical information of patients who underwent staging surgery for EC was abstracted from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 1st, 2005 to June 31st, 2019. Parameters including patient-related, tumor-related, and preoperative hematologic examination-related were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine the correlation with LNM. A nomogram based on the multivariate results was constructed and underwent internal and external validation to predict the probability of LNM.ResultsThe overall data from the 1517 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. 105(6.29%) patients had LNM. According the univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, LVSI is the most predictive factor for LNM, patients with positive LVSI had 13.156-fold increased risk for LNM (95%CI:6.834-25.324; P < 0.001). The nomogram was constructed and incorporated valuable parameters including histological type, histological grade, depth of myometrial invasion, LVSI, cervical involvement, parametrial involvement, and HGB levels from training set. The nomogram was cross-validated internally by the 1000 bootstrap sample and showed good discrimination accuracy. The c-index for internal and external validation of the nomogram are 0.916(95%CI:0.849-0.982) and 0.873(95%CI:0.776-0.970), respectively.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a 7-variable nomogram with a high concordance probability to predict the risk of LNM in patients with EC.
| S-EPMC8243766 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposePredicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk is crucial in determining further treatment strategies following endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to establish a new prediction model for the risk of LNM in T1 CRC patients.Materials and methodsThe development set included 833 patients with T1 CRC who had undergone endoscopic (n=154) or surgical (n=679) resection at the National Cancer Center. The validation set included 722 T1 CRC patients who had undergone endoscopic (n=249) or surgical (n=473) resection at Daehang Hospital. A logistic regression model was used to construct the prediction model. To assess the performance of prediction model, discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with area under the ROC curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test.ResultsFive independent risk factors were determined in the multivariable model, including vascular invasion, high-grade histology, submucosal invasion, budding, and background adenoma. In final prediction model, the performance of the model was good that the AUC was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.770 to 0.855) and the HL chi-squared test statistic was 1.266 (p=0.737). In external validation, the performance was still good that the AUC was 0.771 (95% CI, 0.708 to 0.834) and the p-value of the HL chi-squared test was 0.040. We constructed the nomogram with the final prediction model.ConclusionWe presented an externally validated new prediction model for LNM risk in T1 CRC patients, guiding decision making in determining whether additional surgery is required after endoscopic resection of T1 CRC.
| S-EPMC6790837 | biostudies-literature