Spill-over effect of Wuhan travel ban on population flow in the outbreak stage of COVID-19 in China.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Pang Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8326014 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), infected over 3300 healthcare workers in early 2020 in China. Little information is known about nosocomial infections of healthcare workers in the initial period. We analysed data from healthcare workers with nosocomial infections in Wuhan Union Hospital (Wuhan, China) and their family members. We collected and analysed data on exposure history, illness timelines and epidemiological characteristics from 25 healthcare workers with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and two healthcare workers in whom COVID-19 was highly suspected, as well as 10 of their family members with COVID-19, between 5 January and 12 February 2020. The demographics and clinical features of the 35 laboratory-confirmed cases were investigated and viral RNA of 12 cases was sequenced and analysed. Nine clusters were found among the patients. All patients showed mild to moderate clinical manifestation and recovered without deterioration. The mean period of incubation was 4.5 days, the mean±sd clinical onset serial interval (COSI) was 5.2±3.2 days, and the median virus shedding time was 18.5 days. Complete genomic sequences of 12 different coronavirus strains demonstrated that the viral structure, with small irrelevant mutations, was stable in the transmission chains and showed remarkable traits of infectious traceability. SARS-CoV-2 can be rapidly transmitted from person to person, regardless of whether they have symptoms, in both hospital settings and social activities, based on the short period of incubation and COSI. The public health service should take practical measures to curb the spread, including isolation of cases, tracing close contacts, and containment of severe epidemic areas. Besides this, healthcare workers should be alert during the epidemic and self-quarantine if self-suspected of infection.
| S-EPMC7236818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study, pox-like outbreaks in goat population was investigated that occurred in a high altitude goat farm located in Mizoram, a hilly state of North eastern India. The outbreak initially involved the serows, an wild animal belonging to the family Bovidae, subfamily Caprinae and genus Capricornis, the state animal of Mizoram. Later, the disease affected the domestic goat population. The disease was diagnosed on the basis of gross lesions and PCR amplification of partial P32 gene of capripox virus. The virus was isolated in vero cells. The full length P32 gene was sequenced and phylogenetic tree was constructed. It was revealed that the capripox virus isolated from the outbreak was closely related to the Chinese strain of goatpox virus at both amino acid and nucleotide level. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first report on isolation and characterization of capripoxvirus from north eastern region of India.
| S-EPMC6261892 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic expanded its geographic distribution through the movement of humans and caused subsequent local outbreaks. Hence, it is essential to investigate how human mobility and travel ban affect the transmission and spatial spread while minimizing the impact on social activities and national economics.MethodsWe developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics, explicitly taking into account time-varying inter-province and inner-province population flows, spatial heterogeneity in terms of disease transmission, as well as the impact of media reports. The model is applied to study the epidemic of the dynamic network of 30 provinces of mainland China. The model was calibrated using the publicly available incidence and movement data.ResultsWe estimated that the second outbreak occurred approximately on February 24, 2020, and the cumulative number of cases as of March 15, 2020, increased by 290.1% (95% CI: (255.3%, 324.9%)) without a travel ban in mainland China (excluding Hubei and Tibet). We found that intra-province travel contributes more to the increase of cumulative number of cases than inter-province travel.ConclusionOur quantitative and qualitative research results suggest that the strict travel ban has successfully prevented a severe secondary outbreak in mainland China, which provides solutions for many countries and regions experiencing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8024219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper analyzes the imbalance of interprovincial population flow during the Spring Festival travel rush in China, using big data obtained through Baidu Migration, in terms of population flow during the festival and the normalized unbalanced coefficients of edge and node method for analysis, from which the following findings emerge: (1). The imbalance in population flow network during the Spring Festival travel rush is significant, with unbalanced coefficients and relevant frequencies of the population flow network in the Eastern and Western Regions being significantly higher than in other regions. The unbalanced coefficients in the Central Region are lower, followed by corresponding frequencies, while the unbalanced coefficients in the Northeast Region are evenly distributed with the lowest frequencies. The population flow toward the West and Northwest are relatively concentrated, while the population flow toward the South and Southwest are relatively scattered. (2). The regional imbalance during the Spring Festival travel rush has characteristics of spatial agglomeration, where a strongly-connected Southeast Subsystem and a weakly-connected Western Subsystem are formed; there is a significant leverage effect in Guangdong Province, which greatly affects the regional imbalance. Three characteristics emerge in the distribution of regional population flow-the outflow, inflow, and outflow along the Eastern, Central and Western strips/lines, respectively. The paper emphasizes the importance of researching imbalance issues, clarifies the difference between the imbalance of the population flow network and the imbalance involved in previous population research fields, and discusses the Spring Festival Effect in terms of population flow and deficiencies in research.
| S-EPMC8021162 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionMalaria importation can be caused by cross-border movement either of both people and anopheline mosquitoes. However, there still lacks robust evidence of imported malaria caused by Plasmodium spp. infected anopheles along international border areas (border-spill malaria). The objectives of this study were to confirm whether an outbreak of Plasmodium vivax malaria is border-spill malaria and assess the effects of China's public health response along China-Myanmar border.MethodsEpidemiological, parasitological and entomological investigations were conducted to investigate the outbreak of border-spill malaria. Meanwhile, comprehensive interventions were carried out to prevent further transmission and reintroduction of malaria.ResultsRapid diagnostic testing, microscopy and polymerase chain reaction were performed and the infections were confirmed as P. vivax. A total of 22 (9.21%) of 239 workers contracted P. vivax during the outbreak. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the distance of worker shelters in China within 300 meters to the internally displaced person (IDP) camps in Myanmar was a risk factors associated with malaria infection (adjusted odds ratio 7.5920; 95% confidence interval, 2.6079-22.1013; P = 0.0002). After comprehensive interventions, malaria transmission was successfully interpreted and prevented at the project site till the completion of project on 14 January 2020, and recurrence of P. vivax malaria was not detected by the end of 2020.ConclusionThis study provided robust evidence of border-spill malaria along China-Myanmar border. Malaria parasite reservoir and distance travelled by female anopheline mosquitoes are two determinants for border-spill malaria. The public health response to the outbreak indicates that the malaria surveillance and response system works well in preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, prevention of border-spill malaria is still a major challenge in the Yunnan border area, China.
| S-EPMC9757579 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating in Wuhan, China presents a potential respiratory viral pandemic to the world population. Current efforts are focused on containment and quarantine of infected individuals. Ultimately, the outbreak could be controlled with a protective vaccine to prevent 2019-nCoV infection. While vaccine research should be pursued intensely, there exists today no therapy to treat 2019-nCoV upon infection, despite an urgent need to find options to help these patients and preclude potential death. Herein, I review the potential options to treat 2019-nCoV in patients, with an emphasis on the necessity for speed and timeliness in developing new and effective therapies in this outbreak. I consider the options of drug repurposing, developing neutralizing monoclonal antibody therapy, and an oligonucleotide strategy targeting the viral RNA genome, emphasizing the promise and pitfalls of these approaches. Finally, I advocate for the fastest strategy to develop a treatment now, which could be resistant to any mutations the virus may have in the future. The proposal is a biologic that blocks 2019-nCoV entry using a soluble version of the viral receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), fused to an immunoglobulin Fc domain, providing a neutralizing antibody with maximal breath to avoid any viral escape, while also helping to recruit the immune system to build lasting immunity. The sequence of the ACE2-Fc protein is provided to investigators, allowing its possible use in recombinant protein expression systems to start producing drug today to treat patients under compassionate use, while formal clinical trials are later undertaken. Such a treatment could help infected patients before a protective vaccine is developed and widely available in the coming months to year(s).
| S-EPMC7029759 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7033706 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, and it is unknown whether a combination of public health interventions can improve control of the outbreak.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of public health interventions with the epidemiological features of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by 5 periods according to key events and interventions.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, individual-level data on 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between December 8, 2019, and March 8, 2020, were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System, including patients' age, sex, residential location, occupation, and severity classification.ExposuresNonpharmaceutical public health interventions including cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction, social distancing, home confinement, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey.Main outcomes and measuresRates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections (defined as the number of cases per day per million people), across age, sex, and geographic locations were calculated across 5 periods: December 8 to January 9 (no intervention), January 10 to 22 (massive human movement due to the Chinese New Year holiday), January 23 to February 1 (cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction and home quarantine), February 2 to 16 (centralized quarantine and treatment), and February 17 to March 8 (universal symptom survey). The effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (an indicator of secondary transmission) was also calculated over the periods.ResultsAmong 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, the median patient age was 56.7 years (range, 0-103; interquartile range, 43.4-66.8) and 16 817 (51.6%) were women. The daily confirmed case rate peaked in the third period and declined afterward across geographic regions and sex and age groups, except for children and adolescents, whose rate of confirmed cases continued to increase. The daily confirmed case rate over the whole period in local health care workers (130.5 per million people [95% CI, 123.9-137.2]) was higher than that in the general population (41.5 per million people [95% CI, 41.0-41.9]). The proportion of severe and critical cases decreased from 53.1% to 10.3% over the 5 periods. The severity risk increased with age: compared with those aged 20 to 39 years (proportion of severe and critical cases, 12.1%), elderly people (≥80 years) had a higher risk of having severe or critical disease (proportion, 41.3%; risk ratio, 3.61 [95% CI, 3.31-3.95]) while younger people (<20 years) had a lower risk (proportion, 4.1%; risk ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.70]). The effective reproduction number fluctuated above 3.0 before January 26, decreased to below 1.0 after February 6, and decreased further to less than 0.3 after March 1.Conclusions and relevanceA series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may inform public health policy in other countries and regions.
| S-EPMC7149375 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020.AimWe aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020.MethodsA series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.ResultsThe cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent.ConclusionFurther spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.
| S-EPMC7276059 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult.
| S-EPMC3032737 | biostudies-literature