Dataset Information

Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020.

Aim

We aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020.

Methods

A series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.

Results

The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent.

Conclusion

Further spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.

SUBMITTER: Lai S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7276059 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study.

Lai Shengjie S Bogoch Isaac I II Ruktanonchai Nick W NW Watts Alexander A Lu Xin X Yang Weizhong W Yu Hongjie H Khan Kamran K Tatem Andrew J AJ

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200309

<h4>Background</h4>A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020.<h4>Aim</h4>We aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020.<h4>Methods</h4>A series of domestic and inte ...[more]

PMID: 32511631

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.

Dataset Information

Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study.

Background

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study.

Similar Datasets

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