Dataset Information

Risk stratification and mortality prediction in octo- and nonagenarians with peripheral artery disease: a retrospective analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Among changes in demographics, aging is the most relevant cardiovascular risk factor. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is high in elderly patients and is associated with a worse prognosis. Despite optimal treatments, mortality in the high-risk population of octo- and nonagenarians with PAD remains excessive, and predictive factors need to be identified. The objective of this study was to investigate predictors of mortality in octo- and nonagenarians with PAD.

Methods

Cases of treated octo- and nonagenarians, including the clinical characteristics and markers of myocardial injury and heart failure, were studied retrospectively with respect to all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios [HR] were calculated and survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meyer curves and receiver operating characteristic curved were assessed for troponin-ultra and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI).

Results

A total of 123 octo- and nonagenarians admitted for PAD were eligible. The troponin level was the major predictor of all-cause mortality (HR: 4.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-15.3), followed by the NT-proBNP level (HR: 3.9, 95% CI 1.8-8.8) and CLTI (HR: 3.1, 95% CI 1.6-5.9). Multivariate regression revealed that each increment of 1 standard deviation in log troponin and log NT-proBNP was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI 1.8-4.1) and a 1.9-fold (95% CI 1.2-2.9) increased risk of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a combination of all predictors yielded an improved area under the curve of 0.888. In a control group of an equal number of younger individuals, only NT-proBNP (HR: 4.2, 95% CI 1.2-14.1) and CLTI (HR: 6.1, 95% CI 1.6-23.4) were predictive of mortality.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates that cardiovascular biomarkers and CLTI are the primary predictors of increased mortality in elderly PAD patients. Further risk stratification through biomarkers in this high-risk population of octo- and nonagenarians with PAD is necessary.

SUBMITTER: Rammos C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8330051 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis (SIAS) is very common in octo- and nonagenarians, especially in the Chinese population, and is likely the most common cause of stroke recurrence worldwide. Clinical trials demonstrate that endovascular treatment, such as stenting, may not be suitable for octogenarians with systemic diseases. Hence, less invasive methods for the octogenarian patients are urgently needed. Our previous study (unique identifier: NCT01321749) showed that repetitive bilateral arm ischemic preconditioning (BAIPC) reduced the incidence of stroke recurrence by improving cerebral perfusion (confirmed by single photon emission computed tomography and transcranial Doppler sonography) in patients younger than 80 years of age; however, the safety and effectiveness of BAIPC on stroke prevention in octo- and nonagenarians with SIAS are still unclear. The objective of this study was to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of BAIPC in reducing stroke recurrence in octo- and nonagenarian patients with SIAS. Fifty-eight patients with SIAS were enrolled in this randomized controlled prospective study for 180 consecutive days. All patients enrolled in the study received standard medical management. Patients in the BAIPC group (n?=?30) underwent 5 cycles consisting of bilateral arm ischemia followed by reperfusion for 5 min each twice daily. Those in the control group (n?=?28) underwent sham-BAIPC twice daily. Blood pressure, heart rate, local skin status, plasma myoglobin, and plasma levels of thrombotic and inflammatory markers were documented in both groups before beginning the study and for the first 30 days. Finally, the incidences of stroke recurrence and magnetic resonance imaging during the 180 days of treatment were compared. Compared with the control, BAIPC had no adverse effects on blood pressure, heart rate, local skin integrity, or plasma myoglobin, and did not induce cerebral hemorrhage in the studied cohort. BAIPC reduced plasma high sensitive C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, leukocyte count, and platelet aggregation rate and elevated plasma tissue plasminogen activator (all p?<?0.01). In 180 days, 2 infarctions and 7 transient ischemic attacks were observed in the BAIPC group compared with 8 infarctions and 11 transient ischemic attacks in the sham BAIPC group (p?<?0.05). BAIPC may safely inhibit stroke recurrence, protect against brain ischemia, and ameliorate plasma biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in octo- and nonagenarians with SIAS. A multicenter trial is ongoing.www.clinicaltrials.gov, unique identifier: NCT01570231.

Project description:Our study aims to develop a data-driven framework utilizing heterogenous electronic medical and clinical records and advanced Machine Learning (ML) approaches for: (i) the identification of critical risk factors affecting the complexity of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD), as assessed via the SYNTAX score; and (ii) the development of ML prediction models for accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score. We propose a two-part modeling technique separating the process into two distinct phases: (a) a binary classification task for predicting, whether a patient is more likely to present with a non-zero SYNTAX score; and (b) a regression task to predict the expected SYNTAX score accountable to individual patients with a non-zero SYNTAX score. The framework is based on data collected from the GESS trial (NCT03150680) comprising electronic medical and clinical records for 303 adult patients with suspected CAD, having undergone invasive coronary angiography in AHEPA University Hospital of Thessaloniki, Greece. The deployment of the proposed approach demonstrated that atherogenic index of plasma levels, diabetes mellitus and hypertension can be considered as important risk factors for discriminating patients into zero- and non-zero SYNTAX score groups, whereas diastolic and systolic arterial blood pressure, peripheral vascular disease and body mass index can be considered as significant risk factors for providing an accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score, given that a patient belongs to the non-zero SYNTAX score group. The experimental findings utilizing the identified set of important risk factors indicate a sufficient prediction performance for the Support Vector Machine model (classification task) with an F-measure score of ~0.71 and the Support Vector Regression model (regression task) with a median absolute error value of ~6.5. The proposed data-driven framework described herein present evidence of the prediction capacity and the potential clinical usefulness of the developed risk-stratification models. However, further experimentation in a larger clinical setting is needed to ensure the practical utility of the presented models in a way to contribute to a more personalized management and counseling of CAD patients.